‘So Many Things Could Go Wrong’

‘So Many Things Could Go Wrong’

If it's more evidence of the market's growing conviction around a changing of the guard in D.C. you seek, you might have a look at the ruble. While it's plausible to suggest the Kremlin hasn't managed to extract all of the geopolitical benefits Russia imagined may accrue from a Donald Trump presidency, a normalization of America's ties with key European allies would be unequivocally negative for Vladimir Putin, for a variety of obvious reasons that I assume needn't be enumerated here. One way
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5 thoughts on “‘So Many Things Could Go Wrong’

    1. I envision that many in Trump’s family and inner circle are, in fact, in danger of indictment in the coming years, if Trump is out of power. This is not Stalinist: they have likely broken many laws, while in office, and that’s not acceptable. But it’s problematic. Let’s imagine that Trump is soundly defeated, and that it becomes clear that the rest of the country won’t go along with claims of voter fraud. Trump will have to leave. But he will still be president until January 20. It might not be pretty. Outgoing KY governor Matt Bevins issued a rash of very unpopular pardons just prior to leaving office. What is Trump capable of? “If you don’t indict me when I leave office, I won’t pardon all of the Federal prisoners in the system.” Can you imagine having to impeach a lame-duck president?

      1. It is looking more like a crime family. Good that they were based out of NY, jurisdiction where prosecutors have decades of experiencing prosecuting such organizations.

        We should have the expectation that he will be an arsonist.

        If he is an arsonist, a second-order change could be that inauguration is moved up to a date prior to Christmas.

        Laws around presidential pardons changed. (We know he’s going to go nuts and abuse the heck out of pardons.)

        Another effect could be the purposeful weakening of the executive branch, the presidency. The office needs to be weakened, for among other reasons, to prevent an organized psychopath in the future from picking up where the unorganized….uh, uninterested, Trump leaves off.

  1. While concern over post election drama is noted above in comments, I note this week has been good on the front of prevention of violence. Arrests over planned kidnapping of Whitmer has caused right wing media channels to buzz. There are those advancing the reasonable thought that no militia supporting government party, person or agency is desirable or legal.

    There is a news feed today saying that Barret may in fact not be supportive of NRA position on gun rights. Which by the way suffers from fundamental logical flaws and/or lies.

    On the presidential virus case we still have not proof that his virus battle is near to and end. In fact coughing while on phone calls is a sign it is not at an end.

    Even psychopath Barr has declined to arrest political opponents, has the call gone too far? Or is congress finally able to gain a backbone? Heck even I could write an article of impeachment in the morning and it could be voted in the afternoon to remove asshole and psychopath from office while trial commenced.

    I see all signs that our country is on it’s path to normalization, which is by the way selling us short. We should be looking now to make ourselves a better example of ourselves.

    I saw a study today where , cough-cough, cash was given to homeless as an experiment. The results were net positive for government budgets due to positive behavior changes. More study is needed but if cash transfers to select homeless can result in more money for the income taxing authority that they give out, then our humanity (for those so endowed) requires us to wholeheartedly embrace such a program.

  2. In early Sep, the volatility yield curve implied higher volatility in Nov, Dec. Jan, then declining gradually. On Oct 1, the curve implied higher vol in Nov. On Oct 5, the curve implied higher vol in Oct and Nov. This suggests outlook for Dec onward had moved to lower vol / more bullish, right?

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