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Category: Markets

Powell Hurts Own Cause, Feeds Budget Hawks By Parroting Deficit Myths

October 6, 2020October 6, 2020

At this point, you’d forgive Jerome Powell (and most of his colleagues) for being frustrated

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5 Comments on Powell Hurts Own Cause, Feeds Budget Hawks By Parroting Deficit Myths

‘With Less Than 30 Days’: Goldman Recaps Cross-Asset Election Outlook After Trump Virus Scare

October 6, 2020October 6, 2020

“The S&P 500 equal-weighted index had one of the largest daily outperformances since the GFC”,

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Nomura’s McElligott: Market Is ‘Full-Throttle Embracing Biden, Blue Wave’

October 6, 2020October 6, 2020

Price action on Monday was indicative of a market “going full-throttle” in its “embrace of

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4 Comments on Nomura’s McElligott: Market Is ‘Full-Throttle Embracing Biden, Blue Wave’

Invincible Heroes

October 6, 2020October 6, 2020

Global markets were muted Tuesday following Donald Trump’s return to the White House from Walter

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Did Markets Start Pricing Out Donald Trump On Monday?

October 5, 2020October 5, 2020

“We’re still optimistic based on his unbelievable progress”, Mark Meadows said Monday, during remarks to

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8 Comments on Did Markets Start Pricing Out Donald Trump On Monday?

Some See White House Virus Scare Increasing Odds Of Undisputed Election

October 5, 2020October 5, 2020

“At the margin, markets seem to have lowered the chance of prolonged uncertainty post-November 3”,

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6 Comments on Some See White House Virus Scare Increasing Odds Of Undisputed Election

No Time To Die In New York (Or Bethesda)

October 5, 2020October 5, 2020

It certainly wasn’t clear that risk assets (i.e., equities) should have been any semblance of

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3 Comments on No Time To Die In New York (Or Bethesda)

No Shirt, No Shoes, Some Service

October 5, 2020October 5, 2020

Activity in the US services sector continues to rebound, the latest read on ISM’s non-manufacturing

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Stable

October 5, 2020October 5, 2020

Equities came into the new week looking for gains after a Weekend at Bernie’s-style effort

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2 Comments on Stable

Secondary Concerns

October 4, 2020October 5, 2020

It still feels a bit strange to speak about what could move markets in the

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6 Comments on Secondary Concerns

‘Collapsing’ Fundamentals And Fingers Crossed For The Future

October 4, 2020October 5, 2020

It probably won’t surprise you to learn that the S&P 500’s entire gain in 2020

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1 Comment on ‘Collapsing’ Fundamentals And Fingers Crossed For The Future

Afterthoughts

October 3, 2020October 5, 2020

Everything became an afterthought Friday. Even if Donald Trump’s COVID diagnosis proves to be a

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3 Comments on Afterthoughts

Precedent

October 3, 2020October 5, 2020

Tempting as it is, it’s usually dangerous to use the word “unprecedented”. While it’s true

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5 Comments on Precedent

A National Problem

October 2, 2020October 5, 2020

The nation was upended Friday by Donald Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis, but for critics, it comes

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10 Comments on A National Problem

Under The Hood Of The September Jobs Report

October 2, 2020October 5, 2020

The September jobs report, the last before the election, took a back seat Friday to

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1 Comment on Under The Hood Of The September Jobs Report

Marko Kolanovic Weighs In On Trump COVID Diagnosis, Stays Positive On Stocks

October 2, 2020October 2, 2020

If you’re reassessing your outlook for equities (or any other asset class) Friday in the

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8 Comments on Marko Kolanovic Weighs In On Trump COVID Diagnosis, Stays Positive On Stocks

Nomura’s McElligott On Trump Virus News: This ‘Risks A Rapid Change To The Market’s Assigned Election Probabilities’

October 2, 2020October 2, 2020

“Fresh tails” are piling up, Nomura’s Charlie McElligott said, in a Friday note, as the

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7 Comments on Nomura’s McElligott On Trump Virus News: This ‘Risks A Rapid Change To The Market’s Assigned Election Probabilities’

‘Hardly Anything Else Matters’: One Bank Games Out Scenarios As Trump Has ‘Mild Symptoms’

October 2, 2020October 2, 2020

As you might imagine, analysts spent Friday morning gaming out possible scenarios around Donald Trump’s

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3 Comments on ‘Hardly Anything Else Matters’: One Bank Games Out Scenarios As Trump Has ‘Mild Symptoms’

Jobs Report Misses As Government Payrolls Decline. Revisions, Falling Unemployment Rate Soften Blow

October 2, 2020October 2, 2020

The US economy added 661,000 jobs in September, far less than the 875,000 the market

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3 Comments on Jobs Report Misses As Government Payrolls Decline. Revisions, Falling Unemployment Rate Soften Blow

Positive Vibes

October 2, 2020October 2, 2020

“Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19. We will begin our quarantine and recovery

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21 Comments on Positive Vibes

Renting In New York And San Francisco Just Got A Lot Cheaper. Any Takers?

October 1, 2020October 1, 2020

If it’s evidence of de-urbanization in the US you seek, consulting recent housing market data

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5 Comments on Renting In New York And San Francisco Just Got A Lot Cheaper. Any Takers?

What If We’re Watering A Dead Tree?

October 1, 2020October 2, 2020

On Wednesday, I talked a bit about the extent to which some decisions made during

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14 Comments on What If We’re Watering A Dead Tree?

People Have Less Money When You Stop Sending Them Checks, Data Confirms

October 1, 2020October 1, 2020

Personal incomes fell 2.7% in August, according to data that is by now so stale

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1 Comment on People Have Less Money When You Stop Sending Them Checks, Data Confirms

ISM Miss Adds To ‘Cooling’ Narrative As Rebound Drags On

October 1, 2020October 1, 2020

Rounding out a deluge of Thursday data was ISM, which missed for September, albeit not

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Jobless Claims ‘Improve,’ Still Worst Ever Outside Of Pandemic

October 1, 2020October 1, 2020

837,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, confirming (again) that the labor market has

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1 Comment on Jobless Claims ‘Improve,’ Still Worst Ever Outside Of Pandemic

Imagined Reality

October 1, 2020October 1, 2020

The good news is, the US government isn’t going to formally shutdown. As expected, Donald

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10 Comments on Imagined Reality

When Is A Silver Bullet Not A Silver Bullet?

September 30, 2020October 1, 2020

When is a silver bullet not a silver bullet? That’s a question market participants need

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10 Comments on When Is A Silver Bullet Not A Silver Bullet?

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Monthly Letter

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Hell Or High Fashion

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