Markets stocks

2021 And The ‘6 P’s’

It'll be "tough" for equities to keep hitting new highs now that volatility, spreads, and yields have all collapsed, BofA's Michael Hartnett wrote Thursday evening. Following March's pandemic dramatics, rates vol, credit spreads, and the VIX have retraced between three-quarters and 100% of their panic moves, making it more difficult for vol and spread compression to nudge stocks higher. This "hints at 'peak policy' stimulus," Hartnett said. Indeed, the relentless trek higher for equities stalled in September, when summer's options mania-inspired melt-up finally de-frothed into a tech correction. Now, equities and rates are anxiously awaiting an epoch-making election stateside for direction. A Democratic sweep ostensibly means a stronger fiscal impulse and a more redistributive tax regime, with the former generally seen outweighing the latter in terms of the longer-term impact on equities, even if the knee-jerk reaction to a "blue sweep" would be risk-off. Hartnett talks of the "6 P's of 2020." They are: Price, positioning, policy, profits, pandemic, and politics. We've already seen a "historic" price rally, he notes. If the history of "great market rallies" is precedent, th
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7 comments on “2021 And The ‘6 P’s’

  1. fredm421 says:

    Buy-the-rip. I like that.

    TBH, what a debt ratio at 266% says is that our classical/orthodox economic models aren’t quite correct.

    Someone said “What’s correct about MMT is old, and what’s new isn’t correct”. Fair enough. We ‘knew’ that the only hard limit to money-printing government spending is inflation. Yet, somehow, politicians and even the educated public don’t seem to know that.

    But, I have to say, would it not be saner to have higher taxes, higher interest rates and lower debt load? It sure would look more ‘conservative’ to me…

  2. joesailboat says:

    The pandemic will be in full swing by Inauguration.
    April 20,2020 Daily deaths 2200 Hospital beds used 69,000
    January20,2020 projected. 2400. 130,000 medpagetoday

  3. Nobody really talks about it … but will we reach a point where the hospitals are absolutely saturated with Covid and the usual ailments and the doctors and nurses are burnt out and the quality of care starts to suffer ending up with more deaths and fewer staff to care for the ever-increasing patient load?? Thank God we’ve turned the corner.

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