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Weekly: The Leveraged Buildout (Speculative Gravity Control)

October 31, 2026October 31, 2026
  • The Problem, In A Nutshell…

    October 30, 2026
  • What’s What And WTF?

    October 30, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Oil, Dammit!

    October 30, 2026October 30, 2026

Markets

My Goodness: Amazon Spent Some Money

October 29, 2026October 31, 2026
  • Alphabet Whiffs, Microsoft Hits

    October 28, 2026October 31, 2026
  • Mona Lisa’s Smirk

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026
  • F-ck You, Claude (Zen)

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • Around, Around We Go

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026

economy

‘Remains Elevated’

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Boom!

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Dissembling Strategery

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026
  • Frozen Bubble

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • It’s All Relative

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026

Geopolitics

Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026

The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Lula!

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

Duly Noted

An ARM And A Leg

October 28, 2026October 30, 2026

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

Trump Pulls The Trigger, Signs Orders On Jobless Benefits, Payroll Taxes

August 8, 2020August 9, 2020

Donald Trump moved ahead Saturday with executive action aimed at preserving a handful of key

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6 Comments on Trump Pulls The Trigger, Signs Orders On Jobless Benefits, Payroll Taxes

Warren Buffett Still Believes In Himself. Everyone Else Is An Open Question.

August 8, 2020August 8, 2020

Disciples of Omaha’s most famous granddad will be pleased to know that during the second

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1 Comment on Warren Buffett Still Believes In Himself. Everyone Else Is An Open Question.

‘So Bearish, I’m Bullish’ (And Why The Biggest Stock Outflow Since Vol-pocalypse Is ‘Good’ News)

August 8, 2020August 8, 2020

“The only time to worry about stocks is when US equity fund flows turn positive”,

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2 Comments on ‘So Bearish, I’m Bullish’ (And Why The Biggest Stock Outflow Since Vol-pocalypse Is ‘Good’ News)

An ‘Extremely Low Bar’: Goldman Raises S&P EPS Forecasts After FAAMG-Assisted Quarter

August 8, 2020August 8, 2020

The bar was extremely low. The most challenging earnings season in living memory is now

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2 Comments on An ‘Extremely Low Bar’: Goldman Raises S&P EPS Forecasts After FAAMG-Assisted Quarter

Trump Outlines Executive Order On Virus Relief After Stimulus Talks Collapse. Stops Short Of Action

August 7, 2020August 8, 2020

“We are going a different way!”, Donald Trump declared, after more than a week of

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5 Comments on Trump Outlines Executive Order On Virus Relief After Stimulus Talks Collapse. Stops Short Of Action

Tech Wars, Great Debasements, And A $2.4 Trillion ‘Non-Starter’

August 7, 2020August 7, 2020

A July jobs report billed ahead of time as a potential game-changer for a market

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oil4 Comments on Tech Wars, Great Debasements, And A $2.4 Trillion ‘Non-Starter’

These Markets Are Nihilists, Donny.

August 7, 2020

No, Donny, these men are nihilists. There’s nothing to be afraid of. —Walter Sobchak “Nothing matters but liquidity”, BofA’s Michael

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5 Comments on These Markets Are Nihilists, Donny.

‘Directly Responsible’: Mnuchin Slaps Carrie Lam With Sanctions As US-China Tensions Soar

August 7, 2020August 7, 2020

With tensions running higher than ever following Donald Trump’s pair of executive orders targeting TikTok,

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3 Comments on ‘Directly Responsible’: Mnuchin Slaps Carrie Lam With Sanctions As US-China Tensions Soar

July Jobs Report Raises Questions, But Answers Aren’t Forthcoming

August 7, 2020August 7, 2020

The July jobs report (which beat expectations, ostensibly suggesting reinstated virus containment measures across some

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Leave a Comment on July Jobs Report Raises Questions, But Answers Aren’t Forthcoming

US Labor Market Defies Skeptics As Jobs Report Again Beats Expectations

August 7, 2020August 7, 2020

“You can’t use a model for this”, Morgan Stanley’s Chief US Economist, Ellen Zentner, sighed

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5 Comments on US Labor Market Defies Skeptics As Jobs Report Again Beats Expectations

‘Shocked’

August 7, 2020August 7, 2020

“We are shocked by the recent Executive Order, which was issued without any due process”,

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2 Comments on ‘Shocked’

Trump Makes TikTok Ban Official, Takes Aim At WeChat, Tencent In Latest Broadside

August 6, 2020August 7, 2020

Donald Trump made it official on Thursday evening. He signed an executive order aimed at

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3 Comments on Trump Makes TikTok Ban Official, Takes Aim At WeChat, Tencent In Latest Broadside

‘Working Fine Right Now’

August 6, 2020August 6, 2020

(Updates with comments from Pelosi, Schumer, Meadows, Mnuchin after latest negotiations) In an attempt to

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8 Comments on ‘Working Fine Right Now’

Americans’ Credit Card Balances Just Plunged By A Record $76 Billion

August 6, 2020August 6, 2020

Credit card balances for US households plunged by the most on record in the second

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6 Comments on Americans’ Credit Card Balances Just Plunged By A Record $76 Billion

Turkey Plunges Into (Another) Currency Crisis. Is Anyone Surprised?

August 6, 2020August 6, 2020

Turkey is in trouble — again. At fairly regular intervals, the country finds itself teetering

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1 Comment on Turkey Plunges Into (Another) Currency Crisis. Is Anyone Surprised?

Is This Time Different? Goldman Says ‘Early Vaccine’ May Change Market Zeitgeist

August 6, 2020August 6, 2020

Things are going to look a lot different three months from now. That’s the message

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6 Comments on Is This Time Different? Goldman Says ‘Early Vaccine’ May Change Market Zeitgeist

Jobless Claims Fall To Lowest Of Pandemic In Welcome News

August 6, 2020August 6, 2020

On the heels of an ostensibly foreboding ADP employment report, and just a day ahead

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3 Comments on Jobless Claims Fall To Lowest Of Pandemic In Welcome News

Guesswork: BOE As A Microcosm Of The Global Policymaker Dilemma

August 6, 2020August 6, 2020

The BOE kept rates unchanged at a record low 0.1% Thursday and promised it won’t

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Leave a Comment on Guesswork: BOE As A Microcosm Of The Global Policymaker Dilemma

Fingers Crossed

August 5, 2020August 6, 2020

It’s “fingers crossed” time. Fingers crossed that an egregious downside miss on ADP employment doesn’t

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4 Comments on Fingers Crossed

Nomura’s McElligott Delivers The ‘Contrarian View’ On Surging M2 Money Supply

August 5, 2020August 5, 2020

Generally speaking, the market doesn’t have much faith in the reflation narrative and hasn’t for

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19 Comments on Nomura’s McElligott Delivers The ‘Contrarian View’ On Surging M2 Money Supply

‘That’s A Record’: US Terms Out Massive Financing Need With Scope Of New Stimulus Uncertain

August 5, 2020August 5, 2020

The US announced a record $112 billion quarterly refunding on Wednesday, a total that eclipsed

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3 Comments on ‘That’s A Record’: US Terms Out Massive Financing Need With Scope Of New Stimulus Uncertain

Biggest Miss In ADP History Sounds Alarm On US Labor Market

August 5, 2020August 5, 2020

The July jobs report is a giant question mark. It won’t capture the most recent

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1 Comment on Biggest Miss In ADP History Sounds Alarm On US Labor Market

It’s A Different Day. Or So We’re Told

August 5, 2020August 5, 2020

Same story, different day was the mantra for the dollar and gold — or at

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oil1 Comment on It’s A Different Day. Or So We’re Told

ISM Services Paints Puzzling Picture, While IHS Markit Warns On ‘Possible Start Of A Double-Dip’

August 5, 2020August 5, 2020

The US services sector was more vibrant than expected last month, according to data you

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Leave a Comment on ISM Services Paints Puzzling Picture, While IHS Markit Warns On ‘Possible Start Of A Double-Dip’

Meanwhile, In China

August 5, 2020August 5, 2020

The market remained focused on stimulus talks in Washington Wednesday, with some manner of deal

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Leave a Comment on Meanwhile, In China

Questions Linger On Future Of 60:40, Risk Parity, While Record-Low Treasury Vol. Catches Gundlach’s Eye

August 4, 2020August 4, 2020

Over the weekend, I asked if it was over for 60:40 and risk parity funds.

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5 Comments on Questions Linger On Future Of 60:40, Risk Parity, While Record-Low Treasury Vol. Catches Gundlach’s Eye

‘Once People Start Missing Payments’: Bedlam, Bullion, And The Risk Of Doing Too Little

August 4, 2020August 5, 2020

[Updates with outcome of Tuesday’s negotiations] Just a “little bit” of headway on fraught stimulus

Read More

8 Comments on ‘Once People Start Missing Payments’: Bedlam, Bullion, And The Risk Of Doing Too Little

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

  • John3D on Weekly: The Leveraged Buildout (Speculative Gravity Control)
  • derek on Weekly: The Leveraged Buildout (Speculative Gravity Control)
  • hackpoet on Weekly: The Leveraged Buildout (Speculative Gravity Control)
  • therealheisenberg on F-ck You, Claude (Zen)

Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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