“We’re Approaching A Margin Call” – The “Trump Put,” Volatility, & One Analyst’s Masterpiece

“When expressed in options language, the Trump put has the same decomposition as the Bernanke put during the QE period. Effectively, this is a supply of equity vol to the market financed by “selling puts” on President’s credibility. However, in contrast with the Fed whose communications with the markets reduced volatility, the new political transparency, as communicated through presidential tweets and political discourse, has been generally volatility increasing.”

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One Bank Says Trump Won’t Be Impeached … Yet

“To date no US President has been impeached by his own party, and given the highly charged partisan environment, we think that evidence of a breach deemed sufficient to trigger impeachment proceedings would have to be very robust. However, if there is a change in the composition of control in Congress post-Midterms and Democrats pick up significant seats, the political calculus could change.”

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