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Category: fed

Against The Odds, Powell Threads Needle. For Now

March 17, 2021March 18, 2021

Jerome Powell’s odds of skating through the March FOMC press conference unscathed were long. There

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5 Comments on Against The Odds, Powell Threads Needle. For Now

Until Something Breaks?

March 14, 2021March 17, 2021

The increasingly tense standoff between the bond market and the Fed will culminate this week

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1 Comment on Until Something Breaks?

‘Troubling Inflation Seems Far Away, Unlikely,’ Powell Says

January 27, 2021January 31, 2021

“We understand inflation dynamics evolve constantly over time but they don’t change rapidly,” Jerome Powell

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2 Comments on ‘Troubling Inflation Seems Far Away, Unlikely,’ Powell Says

Fed Delivers A ‘Substantial’ Dose Of Almost Nothing At Year’s Final Meeting

December 16, 2020December 16, 2020

Headed into the last FOMC meeting of the most tumultuous year in modern history, Fed

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Let Me Off This ‘Wild Ride’: What To Expect From The Fed’s Last Meeting Of 2020

December 13, 2020December 13, 2020

If the Fed wants to unveil plans to extend the average maturity of its ongoing

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The Fed Talked Quite A Bit About QE Options Earlier This Month, November Minutes Show

November 25, 2020November 25, 2020

The prospect of a Janet Yellen Treasury and the public spat between Steve Mnuchin and

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2 Comments on The Fed Talked Quite A Bit About QE Options Earlier This Month, November Minutes Show

Jerome Powell Got Everything Right – Until Someone Asked About Monetary-Fiscal Nexus

November 5, 2020November 6, 2020

Jerome Powell breezed through an uneventful press conference Thursday, sticking largely to familiar talking points

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4 Comments on Jerome Powell Got Everything Right – Until Someone Asked About Monetary-Fiscal Nexus

Fed Delivers Boilerplate Statement, Reiterates Promises Amid Election Uncertainty

November 5, 2020November 5, 2020

In some respects, the Fed is likely a bit disappointed with the outcome of the

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1 Comment on Fed Delivers Boilerplate Statement, Reiterates Promises Amid Election Uncertainty

Fed Meeting, October Jobs Report Are Election Week’s ‘Other’ Big Events

November 1, 2020November 2, 2020

It feels somehow trivial to mention (let alone analyze) next week’s “other” marquee events and

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Fed Is ‘Really’ Out Of Firepower. ‘Only Government Spending’ Can Save Country, Bill Dudley Warns

October 28, 2020

“If the Fed managed to push that down by another 0.5 percentage point, what difference

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1 Comment on Fed Is ‘Really’ Out Of Firepower. ‘Only Government Spending’ Can Save Country, Bill Dudley Warns

Fed Minutes Show Officials Assumed Additional Fiscal Stimulus This Year

October 7, 2020October 8, 2020

Minutes from the September FOMC meeting find Fed officials debating the relative merits of moving

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2 Comments on Fed Minutes Show Officials Assumed Additional Fiscal Stimulus This Year

Powell Hurts Own Cause, Feeds Budget Hawks By Parroting Deficit Myths

October 6, 2020October 6, 2020

At this point, you’d forgive Jerome Powell (and most of his colleagues) for being frustrated

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5 Comments on Powell Hurts Own Cause, Feeds Budget Hawks By Parroting Deficit Myths

What A Blue Wave Means For The Fed, According To Goldman

September 22, 2020September 22, 2020

Over the weekend, I outlined the rather stark economic choice facing Americans as they go

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8 Comments on What A Blue Wave Means For The Fed, According To Goldman

Jerome Powell Can’t Find Duration Bubble He Saw Eight Years Ago

September 16, 2020September 16, 2020

As regular readers are aware, I’m generally loath to devote too much energy to lampooning

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7 Comments on Jerome Powell Can’t Find Duration Bubble He Saw Eight Years Ago

Jerome Powell Relearns A Lesson He Taught In 2012: ‘It Will Never Be Enough For The Market’

September 16, 2020September 17, 2020

Jerome Powell described the Fed’s new, outcome-based forward guidance as “strong and powerful” on Wednesday,

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3 Comments on Jerome Powell Relearns A Lesson He Taught In 2012: ‘It Will Never Be Enough For The Market’

Fed Adopts Outcome-Based Forward Guidance, Will Keep Rates Near Zero For At Least 3 Years

September 16, 2020September 16, 2020

Headed into the September meeting, the Fed wasn’t expected to make meaningful changes to the

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1 Comment on Fed Adopts Outcome-Based Forward Guidance, Will Keep Rates Near Zero For At Least 3 Years

Amid Summer Stock Storm, A Dove Yawns

September 13, 2020September 14, 2020

Barring some kind of truly dramatic, nightmarish spiral in risk assets on Monday and Tuesday,

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2 Comments on Amid Summer Stock Storm, A Dove Yawns

‘We Disagree With Every Element Of This Narrative’: Why One Bank Doubts A Consensus Bond Trade

September 5, 2020September 7, 2020

Lost in the fog of “whale tales” and superseded in the news cycle by the

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1 Comment on ‘We Disagree With Every Element Of This Narrative’: Why One Bank Doubts A Consensus Bond Trade

A Disputed Election And An ‘Institutionalized Powell Put’

September 2, 2020September 2, 2020

A few weeks back, I documented the extent to which Wall Street is preparing for

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2 Comments on A Disputed Election And An ‘Institutionalized Powell Put’

Clarida: Our Employment Models ‘Have Been Wrong’

August 31, 2020September 1, 2020

On Monday, Richard Clarida delivered a fairly lengthy series of prepared remarks for a webcast

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5 Comments on Clarida: Our Employment Models ‘Have Been Wrong’

‘Historic Fed Shift’ Was A Good Headline While It Lasted

August 27, 2020August 28, 2020

“We’re going to try to make up for past misses, but it’s going to be

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3 Comments on ‘Historic Fed Shift’ Was A Good Headline While It Lasted

One Year Later, Fed Formally Adopts Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Approach To Employment

August 27, 2020August 28, 2020

“I’ve been seeing lately that economists are increasingly worried that the idea of [the] Phillips

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10 Comments on One Year Later, Fed Formally Adopts Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Approach To Employment

Jerome Powell’s Big Reveal: ‘Flexible Average Inflation Targeting’ Is Here

August 27, 2020August 28, 2020

As expected, Jerome Powell used his address to this year’s virtual Jackson Hole symposium to

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9 Comments on Jerome Powell’s Big Reveal: ‘Flexible Average Inflation Targeting’ Is Here

With Crucial Powell Speech On Deck, Consider This ‘Key Nuance’

August 23, 2020August 23, 2020

For markets, the week ahead will likely be defined by what Jerome Powell says about

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2 Comments on With Crucial Powell Speech On Deck, Consider This ‘Key Nuance’

Fed Didn’t ‘Exacerbate Moral Hazard’ With Treasury Market ‘Intervention’, Fed Finds

August 20, 2020August 20, 2020

By The New York Fed (via Liberty Street Economics) In response to disorderly market conditions

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3 Comments on Fed Didn’t ‘Exacerbate Moral Hazard’ With Treasury Market ‘Intervention’, Fed Finds

‘What’s Not There’

August 19, 2020August 20, 2020

The problem with the July Fed minutes is “what’s not there”, one rates trader said

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1 Comment on ‘What’s Not There’

Fed Minutes Sketch Contours Of Inflation Framework Change, New Forward Guidance

August 19, 2020August 19, 2020

If the Fed was hoping to stoke inflation expectations as part of a broader effort

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1 Comment on Fed Minutes Sketch Contours Of Inflation Framework Change, New Forward Guidance

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Monthly Letter+

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