‘We Got No More Liquor!’ These Yield Curve Inversion As A Recession Predictor Probabilities Are Sure To Be A Hit At The Bar

If you’re not talking about the inexorable flattening in the U.S. curve in public settings, well then one wonders what the hell it is you’re saying at the bar when you’re spittin’ game to the waitresses. 

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Behold: An ‘Incubator For Vicious Steepeners’

Something tells us this is an underappreciated tail risk, indeed.

David Stockman: It’s A Matter Of Time Before Trump Attacks The Fed

“Indeed, the Donald’s impending attack on the purported sacred ‘independence’ of the Fed is the Orange Swan that looms over the casino.”

A Unified Theory Of Everything: From The Fed, To Volatility, To LIBOR To BTFD

Got all of that? 

Inner And Outer Limits: Resolving An Inconsistency And What It Means For Risk

An “optimal control problem.”

‘Keep The Change, You Filthy Animal’

“Get ready.”

Fed Minutes: ‘Trade War Is A Downside Risk’

STRONG MAJORITY OF FED OFFICIALS SAW TRADE WAR AS DOWNSIDE RISK

FED SEES `SIGNIFICANT’ FISCAL-POLICY GROWTH BOOST NEXT FEW YRS

A NUMBER FED OFFICIALS SAW OUTLOOK WARRANTING STEEPER RATE PATH

Trader: Here’s My Beef With Jamie Dimon’s Annual Letter

“What happened each time the Fed stopped QE? Yields fell. The complete opposite of what Jamie would predict.”

Janet Yellen Warns Of ‘Debt Crisis’, Blasts Trump Tax Cuts In Op-Ed

“The U.S. unemployment rate is down to 4.1 percent, and economic growth could well increase in 2018. Consumer and business confidence is high. What could go wrong?”

War And (No) Peace: Full Week Ahead Preview

Say your prayers.

Stocks And The ‘Restriking Of The Fed Put’

“In our view, Fed put is currently moving deeper out of the money. This is effectively a withdrawal of convexity and risk assets are reacting with what at the moment appears as a reinforcing loop.”

The 3 ‘T’s: Full Week Ahead Preview

In essence, the same things everyone was watching last week (e.g. tech, trade, Trump) will be in focus again…

Albert Edwards Wants To Know If ‘Your Nostrils Are Filling With A Sticky Aroma’

“If you want to blame someone, blame the Fed. And I am sure that is exactly what President Trump will do when he loses patience and moves to remove their independent status.”

David Stockman: That ‘Unicorn’ Isn’t Real

“The single most important price in all of capitalism is the interest rate—-and at all points on the maturity curve. And the single most important truth about honest interest rates is that they must be discovered by markets, not imposed by the state.”

Choose Your Own Adventure: ‘V-Shaped Ascent’ Or ‘Collision Course For Disaster’

Hyperbole is fun!