New Versus ‘Used’: A Tale Of Two Housing Markets
New US home sales held up pretty well in August, data out Wednesday showed, even
Here Come The Refis
After eight straight weekly declines, mortgage rates in the US are close to achieving a
China Initiates Easing Blitz With Biggest-Ever MLF Cut
As expected, China cut the rate on one-year policy loans Wednesday, a day on from
Goldman’s Scott Rubner Sees Year-End Rally, 2025 ‘RINO’ Trade
A “year-end melt-up.” That’s what Goldman’s Scott Rubner sees, although he suspects equities could be
What If The US Consumer Never Totally Breaks?
I’m always on the look out for disparities and contradictions in the macro narrative. Not
I’ve Got A Bad Feeling About This
Confidence among American consumers slipped in September. “Slipped” is a bit euphemistic. “Deteriorated” is probably
US Housing Market Is Sad Joke With Incomes 30% Below Affordability Level
Typical homes are hugely expensive. And typical people aren’t especially well-off. You do the math.
No Pan-acea
The price of money’s irrelevant if there’s no demand for it. By appearances, officials in
Sure Sounds Like A ‘Pre-Set Course’ To Me!
I don’t get bent out of shape about much. Nor do I care for pretending,
The Risk-On, Risk-Off Fed-Jobs Tactical Equity Matrix
I’m going to eschew the temptation to make jokes about highly-paid forecasters stating the obvious.
Israel’s Pissed
I wrote to an old friend in Ra’anana on Sunday. He has a family and
Fed Advised To ‘Move Cautiously’ On Cuts As PMI Price Gauges Rise
“The Fed cannot totally shift its focus away from its inflation target,” S&P Global’s Chris
A BeLabored Point
In his pivotal Jackson Hole address, Jerome Powell said that in his view, it “seems
After The Cut
There’s plenty of data on offer this week across the world’s largest economy. And even
Lonesome Doves
The only thing I know about the future is that the deterioration in my social
US Stock Funds Took In $34 Billion In FOMC Lead-Up
Investors were back into stocks like they left something in the days leading up to
Ibrahim Aqil, Signing Off
Relentless. Unremitting. Unsparing. The IDF and Mossad on Friday dealt still another grievous blow to
The Garbage Man
Does anybody know what China’s doing? Because I don’t know what China’s doing. And I
I Was Told There’d Be Yen Strength
If you were concerned that the policy divergence between Jerome Powell’s Fed and Kazuo Ueda’s
Melt-Up Mechanics
In the lead-up to the September FOMC meeting, professional investors polled for BofA’s monthly fund
Should’ve Bought In Bulk
The fortunate among us have a tendency to extrapolate our own economic circumstances onto everyone
Powell Risks Prejudgment Error With Flippant November Promise
Now that Jerome Powell has (wisely) taken out a 50bps insurance policy against a softening
‘We Need To Be Careful Not To Cut Too Much, Too Fast’
“It’s vital,” Andrew Bailey said Thursday, after the Bank of England left rates on hold
Recalibrating
Jerome Powell went out of his way on Wednesday to frame the Fed’s 50bps rate
50. Sans Bowman
They went big. Two months of high drama crescendoed Wednesday in a 50bps rate cut
Over And Out
“You threw out your pager, right? Because –” “Yeah, yeah, of course. Did you see
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