Last year, Goldman’s David Kostin channeled Taylor Swift for the title of his year-ahead equity outlook. This year, he channeled… well, not Taylor Swift.

“‘The Art of the Deal’ offered readers advice on how to conduct a business negotiation and achieve success as an investor,” Kostin wrote, introducing 34 pages of pretty decent, if occasionally grating for the sometimes tortured nature of the Trump analogies, analysis.

Kostin identified Individual-1 as the “author” of “The Art of the Deal.” Technically, that’s not true. Tony Schwartz wrote “The Art of the Deal,” not Donald Trump. But I’ll concede that citing Schwartz in a sell-side equity outlook wouldn’t pack the same punch as citing Trump who, Kostin remarked, “has just been re-hired” to run the United States. Trump’s book, he went on, “provides a roadmap for our 2025 US equity strategy recommendations.” (So, Goldman’s recommendations will put you on the fast track to six bankruptcies, huge losses and no tax burden. I’m kidding. But that joke, at least, is funny.)

If you think Trump’s business acumen’s overstated, Kostin’s outlook might be hard to get through. He quotes repeatedly from “The Art of the Deal” and… well, this is one of those moments where I’m compelled to choose between stating the obvious and offending a few readers. Not stating the obvious is a road to nowhere for someone like me, whose success as a writer depends very heavily on a reputation for telling the unvarnished truth as best I understand it. With that in mind, here’s a chart:

I’ll just leave that there. The point isn’t to debate Trump’s career, but if Wall Street’s going to base its year-ahead equity strategy pieces on “lessons” from Tony Schwartz, I think it’s only fair that I point out what’s obvious to most people including, I might add, most white-shoe bankers and almost everyone in Manhattan’s upper-crust, where the President-elect isn’t taken especially seriously — except when he’s in the Oval Office, of course.

I’m inclined to give Kostin a break. As regular readers are aware, I’ve always liked him in the same way I’ve always liked Acura’s mid-sized sedans: There’s nothing especially impressive going on, but much as you might want to turn up your nose, you invariably come away from a test drive thinking, “Actually, this is ok. I can work with this.”

I’ve learned over many years that most readers just want the high points from these outlooks, and on that score, Goldman’s first-pass at a 2025 year-end SPX target is 6500. I can assure you: That’ll be revised. Probably more than once, and maybe even before the calendar flips.

As the figure on the right shows, Kostin expects some very moderate multiple contraction, but 21.5x would still be quite rich historically. 6500 would be 11% upside or so. A little more with dividends.

Kostin’s assuming “continued US economic expansion” and he’s penciling in earnings growth of 11% for 2025 and 7% 2026. He noted that the forecasted index return wouldn’t stand out as particularly remarkable, ranking in the 46%ile historically. So, middling.

I’ll probably highlight or otherwise work in some additional passages from Kostin’s outlook in separate articles, but as noted, it’ll all be revised and the target will be marked to market as the new year unfolds.

That’s actually not a criticism of Kostin. I’ve said this I don’t know how many times post-pandemic: Show me a chief US equity strategist with responsibility for the house S&P call at a major Wall Street bank who isn’t willing to raise their price target into an inexorably bullish tape, and I’ll show you someone who’s going to be looking for a new job. Kostin’s been in the job since 2008.