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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Revolutions

July 4, 2026July 6, 2026

America celebrated its sestercentennial on Saturday, when millions of latent cardiac events shaped like spinning

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1 Comment on Revolutions

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Sixth sense (the iconoclast)   Casey’s an assistant manager at a supermarket chain in semi-rural

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20 Comments on Hell Or High Fashion

The Cost Of Leverage

July 3, 2026July 6, 2026

I like to kick off articles with a question, and there’s no question I enjoy

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4 Comments on The Cost Of Leverage

Booms, Bonanzas And The iShock

July 2, 2026July 5, 2026

Early last month, I spent a few minutes editorializing around the historical relationship between capex

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2 Comments on Booms, Bonanzas And The iShock

Questions Abound. Task Force Needed.

July 2, 2026July 5, 2026

What’s going on with the US labor market? Nobody knows. Not really, anyway. Thursday’s underwhelming

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6 Comments on Questions Abound. Task Force Needed.

Fed Doves Get Big Break As US Labor Market Downshifts

July 2, 2026July 4, 2026

If Kevin Warsh wants to avoid “killing success,” as Donald Trump put it, by raising

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2 Comments on Fed Doves Get Big Break As US Labor Market Downshifts

Tesla Sold Some Cars

July 2, 2026July 3, 2026

Does anybody care about Tesla deliveries anymore? I suspect this metric’s like Netflix paid subscriber

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4 Comments on Tesla Sold Some Cars

Metareflexive

July 1, 2026July 2, 2026

I guess I’m a little confused. I hear every day that demand for compute’s insatiable

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10 Comments on Metareflexive

US Factory Recovery Rolls On. Stagflation Abates

July 1, 2026July 2, 2026

53.3. That’s my IQ after spending 15 minutes on Wednesday scrolling through Donald Trump’s TruthSocial

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Leave a Comment on US Factory Recovery Rolls On. Stagflation Abates

US Private-Sector Hiring Cools At The Margins

July 1, 2026July 2, 2026

Private-sector employers in the US added fewer jobs than economists collectively anticipated in June, Wednesday’s

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Leave a Comment on US Private-Sector Hiring Cools At The Margins

AI Job Replacement Escalates Even As Overall Layoffs Slow

July 1, 2026July 2, 2026

Announced job cuts slowed sharply in June from the prior month, consistent with the typical

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3 Comments on AI Job Replacement Escalates Even As Overall Layoffs Slow

John Roberts Saves The Babies

June 30, 2026July 1, 2026

I hesitate to weigh in on Tuesday’s SCOTUS decision upholding birthright citizenship in America. And

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44 Comments on John Roberts Saves The Babies

Jobs, What Jobs?

June 30, 2026July 1, 2026

“Whatever could be wrong?” the pollster inquired, of the downcast American head of household. A

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3 Comments on Jobs, What Jobs?

America’s ‘Jobs-To-Jobless’ Ratio Hits 16-Month High

June 30, 2026July 2, 2026

There were no fireworks from the BLS’s monthly update on job openings across the US

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6 Comments on America’s ‘Jobs-To-Jobless’ Ratio Hits 16-Month High

Push It To The Limit

June 30, 2026July 1, 2026

Vibe check: 80s coke parties in Miami. Or tech stocks 1999. Those are basically the

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5 Comments on Push It To The Limit

Supreme Court Pretends To Protect Fed

June 29, 2026June 30, 2026

Let’s get real: If the Supreme Court were serious about safeguarding Fed independence, they wouldn’t

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15 Comments on Supreme Court Pretends To Protect Fed

How Important Is Micron?

June 29, 2026June 30, 2026

How important is Micron? That depends on the context for the question, but currently, the

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3 Comments on How Important Is Micron?

Honor’s In The Dollar, Kid

June 29, 2026June 30, 2026

27% if you can believe it. I guess whether you believe it depends on what

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2 Comments on Honor’s In The Dollar, Kid

Who’ll Buy All The Stock?

June 29, 2026June 30, 2026

“Who’ll buy all the debt?!” So goes the overwrought interrogative whenever the discussion turns to

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5 Comments on Who’ll Buy All The Stock?

Independence Week

June 28, 2026June 29, 2026

It’s a(nother) holiday week in the US, where markets will be closed Friday to honor

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4 Comments on Independence Week

A Hawkish Epoch? Really?!

June 27, 2026June 29, 2026

I’ve been on at considerable length since Kevin Warsh’s FOMC debut this month about the

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11 Comments on A Hawkish Epoch? Really?!

Weekly: Hyper-Drag

June 26, 2026June 29, 2026

Why are stocks struggling, where that just means struggling to make new(er) highs? Don’t answer

Read More

6 Comments on Weekly: Hyper-Drag

The Most-Asked Question, The Most Important Charts

June 26, 2026June 29, 2026

The most-asked question in my inbox over the past two weeks is… well, to be

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14 Comments on The Most-Asked Question, The Most Important Charts

‘Daddy Needs A New Pair Of Shoes!’

June 26, 2026June 28, 2026

Another day at the casino. Another circuit breaker in the wild, wild east. On Friday,

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5 Comments on ‘Daddy Needs A New Pair Of Shoes!’

‘Obvious’ Things

June 25, 2026June 27, 2026

The moment is upon us. The moment when tech capex overtakes buybacks and dividends. The

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3 Comments on ‘Obvious’ Things

How Leveraged ETFs Turn Markets Into Casinos

June 25, 2026June 26, 2026

If you’d suggested to me a few years ago that a meaningful share of the

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4 Comments on How Leveraged ETFs Turn Markets Into Casinos

The Apple Shock Arrives

June 25, 2026July 1, 2026

“I was told there would be disinflation.” The AI jokes just write themselves on some

Read More

13 Comments on The Apple Shock Arrives

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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