The September FOMC meeting‘s not the only macro-market game in town this week, although it’ll probably feel like it.
In addition to the first Fed hike in over three years, markets will digest a smattering of US macro data, including retail sales figures covering August.
The spending data will be eyed in the context of July’s release which suggested the previously bulletproof US consumer ran out of gas at the beginning of Q3, when prices at the pump rose anew.
The figure above’s a reminder: Both headline and control group sales abruptly contracted in July. The decline on the control group, which economists use to refine GDP estimates, stunned forecasters.
That’s the context for the September 16 figures, covering August. The data will be released by the Commerce Department five and a half hours before the Fed decision.
Needless to say, macro watchers will be keen for any additional evidence that rising fuel costs are crimping Americans’ capacity to make discretionary purchases.
“The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline went up 13 cents since last week as crude oil prices continue climbing [amid] volatility in the Strait of Hormuz,” the AAA remarked, in its latest editorial. “Pump prices are currently comparable to early June.”
“Oil at $100/bbl takes the headlines but diesel is the key real-economy pressure point,” BofA’s Michael Hartnett wrote, in the latest installment of his popular weekly “Flow Show” series, noting the impact on shipping, trucking, agriculture, construction and mining.
That’s not going to have an immediate impact on economy-wide inflation, but it’ll be passed along soon enough assuming there’s no relief.
Other updates due out of the US include the first of this month’s housing data, with builder sentiment covering September due Wednesday and starts and permits covering August on Thursday.
Elsewhere, China will release retail sales, IP and fixed investment figures for August at some point over the next several days, and the Bank of Japan, under governor Bessent-san, will deliver a rate hike, presumably accompanied by aggressively hawkish forward guidance.




Diesel and heating oil price similarly.
An average increase of $1300 per household that use home heating oil can be expected this heating season.