Tariffs and fuel costs.

Those were the “most cited issues” among ISM service panelists in the latest survey, which unsurprisingly showed a measure of input cost pressure hitting the highest in more than four years.

The prices gauge in the ISM report, Monday’s only notable US macro release, printed a scorching 74, up from the prior month and indicative of the most pervasive cost inflation since July of 2022.

As the figure below shows, the >70 readout for September was the sixth in seven months. Fuel was reported up for an eighth consecutive month and memory products a ninth.

Only two products were reported down in price: Lumber and pork. (“I understand you don’t set the prices, Jessica, but I read the ISM report this morning and I’m tellin’ you: The wood-fired pork loin should be cheaper this month, not more expensive.”)

On the good news side, the employment gauge moved back into expansion territory for the first time since June and the demand gauge was robust without accelerating into territory that’d be indicative of a looming, inflationary overheat. (59.8 on the new orders gauge is obviously hot, but it was actually cooler by a tad versus the prior month.)

“Fuel costs were mentioned twice as often as any other single issue impacting performance,” the color accompanying the report said. “Supply chain constraints were also a top concern of respondents and were impacting both lead times and costs.”

On the headline, 54.9 was the slightest of misses. All in all, this was an as-expected release. The biggest part of the world’s largest economy’s holding up, supply chains are strained and price pressures are widespread to the point of being ubiquitous. Handing out $5,000 to every American adult should help.