Wars have consequences.

I’d tell you to ask George W. Bush, but he’d probably insist that invading Iraq on false pretenses was still the right decision. (I know, I know: “Leave him alone! He paints now, and Michelle loves him. So what if he’s indirectly responsible for the deaths of several hundred thousand Iraqis and the birth of ISIS?)

The renewed rise in energy prices that ensued following the collapse of Donald Trump’s Iran MOU found its way into wholesale inflation last month, according to BLS data released on Thursday.

As the figure shows, factory gate prices posted their largest gain since May. More or less the entirety of the month-to-month advance was attributable to a 1.1% sequential increase on the goods gauge, which was in turn the result of a 4.2% jump on the energy index.

Does the PPI report matter given the proximity of a CPI report that’ll supersede it for the purposes of Fed tasseography? Yes. Kinda. But not because of the energy bump. The categories in the PPI release which factor into economists’ forecasts for PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, were warm in Thursday’s release. All else equal, that’d bias estimates for the September 30 PCE readout higher.

But all else isn’t necessarily equal in this case, because the BEA’s tweaking the methodology for calculating PCE, and those tweaks will be implemented beginning with that same September 30 release. The changes are expected to push the YoY pace 0.2ppt lower. If you’re curious as to whether that expected downside is canceled out or otherwise offset by the upside tipped in Thursday’s PPI release, I’ll be silent and let you think I’m bereft rather than speak and remove all doubt.

As to the unpopular war and presidential approval, I’d gently note that “Operation Epic Fury” is a tempest in a teapot compared to “Operation Iraqi Freedom” and its years-long fallout. And look, if Trump does end up mired in a multi-year Mideast entanglement that claims a couple hundred thousand lives and spawns an army of darkness, all he has to do to repair his public image in America is pick up a paint brush and mend ties with the Obamas.

(See why I was so effective?)