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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Why Stocks Are Uniquely Vulnerable To Fed Hikes

July 13, 2026July 14, 2026

Earlier Monday, I mentioned that US equities could prove more sensitive to any rate hikes

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8 Comments on Why Stocks Are Uniquely Vulnerable To Fed Hikes

20%

July 13, 2026July 14, 2026

The Strait of Hormuz, which is closed, will remain open. So declared Donald Trump on

Read More

9 Comments on 209

What If Warsh Does Take A Hike?

July 13, 2026July 15, 2026

What happens to the S&P if Kevin Warsh hikes rates? Dumb question, I know. Because

Read More

10 Comments on What If Warsh Does Take A Hike?

South Korean Regulators Have Lost Control

July 13, 2026July 14, 2026

Leave the local shares. Take the ADRs. One business day after celebrating the largest-ever debut

Read More

2 Comments on South Korean Regulators Have Lost Control

Inflation Week

July 12, 2026July 15, 2026

It’s inflation week in the US, where the BLS is expected to tell American households

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7 Comments on Inflation Week

Strait Talk

July 12, 2026July 13, 2026

The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Again. A month on from Donald Trump’s declaration that

Read More

9 Comments on Strait Talk

Weekly: Mark Carney Was Wrong

July 11, 2026July 13, 2026

Here’s your regular reminder: We’re not in Kansas anymore. Once every two or three months,

Read More

29 Comments on Weekly: Mark Carney Was Wrong

If Stocks Are All That Counts…

July 10, 2026July 13, 2026

It hasn’t always been a smooth ride. In places, this particular rollercoaster was downright harrowing.

Read More

6 Comments on If Stocks Are All That Counts…

‘Everybody’s Profiting’

July 10, 2026July 12, 2026

This week began with Donald Trump ringing the opening bells of both the New York

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5 Comments on ‘Everybody’s Profiting’

SK Hynix Makes History

July 10, 2026July 12, 2026

Say congratulations to SK Hynix, which now boasts the largest-ever American debut for a foreign

Read More

3 Comments on SK Hynix Makes History

The Real Crisis Is In Japan, Albert Edwards Warns

July 9, 2026July 11, 2026

Albert Edwards thinks investors are too focused on the AI bubble (or “bubble,” in scare

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3 Comments on The Real Crisis Is In Japan, Albert Edwards Warns

US Home Prices Smash Record, Hit New High

July 9, 2026July 10, 2026

The median price of resold homes in America rose to a new all-time high in

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4 Comments on US Home Prices Smash Record, Hit New High

Burying The Dead, ‘Still Firing Back’

July 9, 2026July 10, 2026

If you’re curious as to why Iran might’ve decided to target commercial vessels in the

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4 Comments on Burying The Dead, ‘Still Firing Back’

Reflation Stalls In China

July 9, 2026July 10, 2026

Breaking news: China’s still teetering precariously on the brink of deflation. Maybe that’s a bit

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Leave a Comment on Reflation Stalls In China

Kevin Warsh Could Do Without More War

July 8, 2026July 12, 2026

If the ceasefire between the US and Iran is indeed “over,” as Donald Trump declared

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1 Comment on Kevin Warsh Could Do Without More War

Fed Officials Stressed Inflation Risk At Warsh’s First Meeting

July 8, 2026July 9, 2026

Much to the chagrin of Donald Trump’s new Fed chair, who’d prefer it if macro

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4 Comments on Fed Officials Stressed Inflation Risk At Warsh’s First Meeting

Did The Bubble Just Burst In South Korea?

July 8, 2026July 9, 2026

Did the bubble just burst? Just two weeks after clearing 9,000 in a move that

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War Resumes As US, Iran Trade Strikes

July 8, 2026July 9, 2026

The war’s back on. The IRGC on Wednesday struck US military installations in Bahrain and

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2 Comments on War Resumes As US, Iran Trade Strikes

Semis At Cliff’s Edge

July 7, 2026July 8, 2026

In the wake of Samsung’s earnings report and, cutting to the chase, a selloff in

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1 Comment on Semis At Cliff’s Edge

The Silver Lining

July 7, 2026July 12, 2026

I’m beating the “latent semi selloff” drum pretty hard. I promise I’m not short. Seriously.

Read More

8 Comments on The Silver Lining

The Problem With Secret Weapons

July 7, 2026July 8, 2026

If you were so inclined, you could draw a parallel between Donald Trump’s efforts, in

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7 Comments on The Problem With Secret Weapons

When An 1,800% Profit Increase Isn’t Enough

July 7, 2026July 8, 2026

I’m not sure what would’ve counted as “good enough” from Samsung’s closely-watched quarterly report on

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4 Comments on When An 1,8004 Profit Increase Isn’t Enough

Sell The Semis, Buy The Hyper-Scalers?

July 6, 2026July 7, 2026

“Wiiiilsooon!” That’s the only part of Cast Away I know. I’m not a Tom Hanks

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5 Comments on Sell The Semis, Buy The Hyper-Scalers?

Decent Service

July 6, 2026July 7, 2026

Anyone unlucky (or junior) enough to be chained to a Bloomie the day after a

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Mr. Market’s A Boring Guy

July 6, 2026July 7, 2026

On summer days, the inherently repetitive nature of my hobby-job feels more oppressive than it

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1 Comment on Mr. Market’s A Boring Guy

Board Games

July 5, 2026July 7, 2026

Donald Trump still wants to commandeer the Fed board. In other words: The Supreme Court’s

Read More

2 Comments on Board Games

Kevin’s Minutes

July 5, 2026July 6, 2026

To say the macro docket’s limited in the new week would be an understatement. In

Read More

2 Comments on Kevin’s Minutes

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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