AI Replacement Theme Abates As Job Cuts Subdued
Much as it pains me to be the bearer of good news, job cuts were
Emperor Bessent?
If you looked at a chart of USDJPY on Wednesday — and who didn’t, amirite?!
Singing The Bond Blues
It’s all about growth. The bond selloff, I mean. That’s according to NY Fed chief
Payrolls Shrink At American Factories, AI-Vulnerable Service Firms
Womp, womp. Private hiring in the US was lackluster in August, Wednesday’s update from ADP
Buy The Fed Hike?
I’m not buying the Fed hike, figuratively speaking. As Donald Trump reminded Kevin Warsh early
Things Are Getting Interesting Again…
Things are starting to get interesting again. On Tuesday, Eurostat said headline inflation ran 3.3%
Somebody Help The Bonds!
Cue Navin: “They hate these bonds! Stay away from the bonds!” G7 yields moved higher
If You Need A Job, Somebody Has One For You
“Get a job,” sneered Generation Jones, to the estimated 25 million adult children living with
‘Annoying’ Economy, Rampant Inflation Weigh On Factory Recovery
America’s “golden age” manufacturing renaissance lost some of its luster in August, even as the
Minting Money
Corporate profits. They’re booming in America, on the off chance you didn’t notice. And no,
Long Bond Threatens Breach Of ‘All-Important’ Threshold
Trivia time! That’s what it often comes to during the final days of August, when
Who Wants To Loan The Saudis More Money?
If you’re curious as to whether upside to energy prices from the war is sufficient
Back To Bombs
It was back to shootin’ in the Gulf late Sunday and early Monday, when the
To Hire Or Not To Hire
Will America’s preeminent economic statistics outfit dare suggest the US economy lost jobs for a
‘The Biggest Oil Deal In The History Of The World’
Well, at least Venezuela “worked.” Donald Trump says he’s successfully concluded “the biggest oil deal
Weekly: Fool Me Once
Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole speech as Fed chair to double-, triple- and
BLS Stuns Consensus With Hiring Markdown
Surprise! The BLS’s preliminary run at the annual QCEW benchmarking exercise reflected a downward revision
Warsh, Bessent Credibility Crisis Sparks Gold, Crypto Buying Spree
The stakes were high for Kevin Warsh on Friday, when Donald Trump’s man on the
Hawks In Grand Teton
I hope Jeff Schmid and Beth Hammack have their mortgage paperwork in order. On Thursday,
All That Interest Has To Go Somewhere…
Speaking of money market funds. Early Thursday, in “Money Musings,” I mentioned the ~$8 trillion
Money Musings
A few days ago, a reader wondered about the read-across of recent events for the
As The Cycle Turns…
We’re mid-cycle, and market participants might consider acting accordingly. That’s the message from Morgan Stanley’s
Nvidia Beats, Tips Huge Upside To Consensus For Next Year’s Sales
For the 16th consecutive quarter, Nvidia reported revenue that topped Wall Street estimates. Sales in
Spending Slows As Americans Grapple With Inflation
Core inflation on the Fed’s preferred gauge was a touch warmer than expected last month,
Trump’s Flailing
The Trump administration’s flailing, and at just the wrong time. With a little over two
Macro’s ‘Most Important Chart’ Points To Stock Selloff
Once a month, I adopt a foreboding cadence in the course of warning readers on
Bessent, Tilting at Windmills, Risks Reflexive Crisis
I’m quite possibly the only macro-market documentarian who doesn’t give a damn what Stan Druckenmiller
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