Oh, look: US jobless claims are back below 200,000.
In an ostensibly auspicious development for the next BLS jobs report, the headline initial filers series printed a rock-bottom 196,000 for the week to September 12. That’s NFP survey week for this month.
After reaching a generational low below 190,000 in mid-July, initial claims moved back above 200,000 early last month and stayed there until Thursday’s print, which undershot consensus by more than 10,000.
Claims have now fallen in four of the last five weeks. The four-week moving average, at 203,250, is the lowest since the metric slipped below 200,000 earlier this summer.
Continuing claims likewise came in below estimates, falling to 1.73 million in the week to September 5. Do note: That’s the lowest since January of 2024, and it’s a mile below the 1.96 million peak in July of last year.
Earlier this week, ADP said US private-sector employers added an average 16,250 jobs in the four weeks ended August 29.
As the figure shows, that’s the most since the period to July 4.
All of the above underscores the message from the August jobs report: The US labor market’s apparently not on the brink of rolling over anytime soon.
That, in turn, means the Fed should (must) focus on inflation. Donald Trump’s shrill protestations notwithstanding.
Did I simply miss Trump’s bloviating harassment of Warsh after the hike or do I smell a coordinated effort to bolster the impression that “Bad Cop” Warsh is an “Inflation Fighting Hero” in shining armor? I see the media is playing along, but Trump’s absence on TS bashing “his Fed Chair” is signal. Now what will largess will “Good Cop” Bessent bestow on markets to alleviate the ‘scary hike tempo’ into the midterms? Warsh is so brave and principled! Our hero will show those YCC bandits who is boss of the currency! “For the Senate and People of Rome” SPQR!
Bingo.
“Did I simply miss Trump’s bloviating harassment of Warsh after the hike”?
You simply missed it. –> https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117282643318690567
That said, I think the gist of your comment is correct.
I guess AI must be hiring humans to do the work it was supposed to be doing for humans at the beginning of the year when all the layoffs because of AI happened.