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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Americans Shrug Off Inflation, Keep Spending

June 25, 2026June 26, 2026

Underlying consumer price growth on the Fed’s preferred measure rose 3.4% last month from the

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2 Comments on Americans Shrug Off Inflation, Keep Spending

Micron Delivers. And Then Some

June 24, 2026June 25, 2026

The sputtering US equity rally cleared a major hurdle on Wednesday afternoon, when Micron came

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3 Comments on Micron Delivers. And Then Some

Three Hikes? Yeah Right

June 24, 2026June 26, 2026

First thing Wednesday morning, I read an amusing tidbit on Wall Street Fed forecasting. By

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7 Comments on Three Hikes? Yeah Right

Debating The Dollar

June 24, 2026June 25, 2026

The Fed may need a presidential lecture on the many virtues of a weak dollar.

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6 Comments on Debating The Dollar

Coming To America

June 24, 2026June 25, 2026

More bells at the top? Chip mania mascot SK Hynix — talk of the town

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4 Comments on Coming To America

Investors Line Up To Loan Musk More Moon Money

June 23, 2026June 24, 2026

“I’d expect all SpaceX offerings to be heavily oversubscribed,” I wrote earlier this week, editorializing

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6 Comments on Investors Line Up To Loan Musk More Moon Money

Avalanche Anatomy

June 23, 2026June 24, 2026

I won’t harp on this too awful much unless things take a turn for the…

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1 Comment on Avalanche Anatomy

American Dream Is Casualty Of War

June 23, 2026June 29, 2026

Womp, womp. The typical American housing payment rose to a one-year high in the four-week

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2 Comments on American Dream Is Casualty Of War

The Wild, Wild East

June 23, 2026June 24, 2026

Can geography make an otherwise apt metaphor a misnomer? Maybe. If so, “Wild, Wild West”

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1 Comment on The Wild, Wild East

News From The Final Frontier

June 22, 2026June 23, 2026

I don’t especially enjoy writing about SpaceX. I went through the motions on IPO day

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7 Comments on News From The Final Frontier

Hikes Would Only Guarantee Cuts As Fed ‘Perpetually Beholden To Equities’

June 22, 2026June 23, 2026

Everyone’s favorite sell-sider gets it. By “it” I mean the rationale for casting a wary

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8 Comments on Hikes Would Only Guarantee Cuts As Fed ‘Perpetually Beholden To Equities’

Meanwhile, In South Korea…

June 22, 2026June 23, 2026

I suppose I’d be remiss not to mention a watershed moment from the wild, wild

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Leave a Comment on Meanwhile, In South Korea…

10 Years, Seven Prime Ministers

June 22, 2026June 23, 2026

And it was going so well! That’s sarcasm. It wasn’t going well. Not at all

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6 Comments on 10 Years, Seven Prime Ministers

The Other Kind Of ‘Boom’

June 21, 2026June 22, 2026

With the (hardly insignificant) caveat that as long as margins remain elevated and corporates sustain

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2 Comments on The Other Kind Of ‘Boom’

It’s Hot, Kevin

June 21, 2026June 22, 2026

The macro docket’s pretty light in the US this week, where that means the only

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9 Comments on It’s Hot, Kevin

Boom Looping

June 20, 2026June 22, 2026

The war with Iran’s likely to cost American taxpayers more than $1 trillion, according to

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3 Comments on Boom Looping

Weekly: The Man Who Said Too Little

June 19, 2026June 22, 2026

I imagine (I hope) this has occurred to someone other than me, but just in

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14 Comments on Weekly: The Man Who Said Too Little

Liability

June 19, 2026June 21, 2026

JD Vance was supposed to be in Switzerland on Friday for the opening round of

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7 Comments on Liability

Let’s Not Be Naive About Kevin Warsh

June 18, 2026June 21, 2026

My sense is that analysts are misreading Kevin Warsh. Markets too, perhaps, although you can’t

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8 Comments on Let’s Not Be Naive About Kevin Warsh

Restating An Inflation Mandate Does Not A Hawk Make

June 18, 2026June 20, 2026

I think Kevin Warsh will do everything he possibly can to avoid raising rates. Contrary

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9 Comments on Restating An Inflation Mandate Does Not A Hawk Make

Peace On Our Dime

June 18, 2026June 19, 2026

Late Wednesday, Donald Trump put Sharpie to page on the final version of a memorandum

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19 Comments on Peace On Our Dime

Task Forces

June 17, 2026June 19, 2026

Task forces. That’s a summary of what, forgive me, was a somewhat farcical debut for

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14 Comments on Task Forces

Warsh Revamps Fed Statement, Ditches Rate Guidance, Snubs Dots

June 17, 2026June 18, 2026

Well, it’s official: Kevin Warsh isn’t Kevin Hassett, which is to say Warsh isn’t the

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13 Comments on Warsh Revamps Fed Statement, Ditches Rate Guidance, Snubs Dots

So, Who Won?

June 17, 2026June 18, 2026

I suppose most readers got the memo. The memorandum of understanding between the US and

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13 Comments on So, Who Won?

America’s Spendthrifts Undeterred By Soaring Gas Prices

June 17, 2026June 18, 2026

Look out: US retail sales are comin’ in hot, goddammit! Nominal spending across the world’s

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1 Comment on America’s Spendthrifts Undeterred By Soaring Gas Prices

‘Steadfastly Bullish’

June 16, 2026June 22, 2026

Nearly 200 professional investors who, between them, manage less than half of what Elon Musk’s

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1 Comment on ‘Steadfastly Bullish’

Residential Construction Plunges To COVID Panic Levels

June 16, 2026June 17, 2026

I’m a guy who — sad as this is for what it says about my

Read More

7 Comments on Residential Construction Plunges To COVID Panic Levels

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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