Trivia time!

That’s what it often comes to during the final days of August, when “out of office” auto-repliers testify to the prevalence of Labor Day vacations.

Here’s the trivia question: When was the last time the 200-day moving average for 30-year US yields eclipsed 5%?

Before you endeavor an answer, note that the current subscriber pool includes some readers — not many, but a handful — who weren’t yet born the last time the long bond’s 200-day sported a five-handle.

The figure above shows you both the 200-day and the 100-day. The former was last above 5% in early 2005, when Benjamin Harrison was US president and Nicholas I ruled Russia.

Currently, we’re at 4.93% on this “all-important metric,” as BMO’s Ian Lyngen described it. “Should we see [a] push into five-handle territory, it would mark the first time the 200-day has breached 5% since the tail-end of a period in which five-handle bonds were the norm, rather than the exception,” he remarked.

That speaks to concerns that five-handle long bonds are about to become the norm again.

The figure’s above a reminder: 30-year yields have closed above 5% every trading day since the Iran ceasefire collapsed.

Does the 200-day actually matter? Said (asked) differently: Is this more than trivia? Yes and yes. As technical momentum signals go, the 200-day’s like Ron Burgundy: Kind of a big deal.

While we’re “still a distance away,” the bearish trend’s something to be “mindful of” in the context of questions as to “whether we’re seeing a shift toward a higher rates regime,” Lyngen went on.

As for the 100-day, it crossed 5% earlier this month. The last time it boasted a five-handle, 17-year-old Fogell was living his best life as 25-year-old McLovin. (Someone will get it.)