Womp, womp.
Private hiring in the US was lackluster in August, Wednesday’s update from ADP showed.
Non-government employers added a net 38,000 jobs last month, fewer than the 47,000 consensus expected and down from an upwardly-revised 46,000 in July.
August’s gain was the smallest since January and represented the third month-to-month deceleration in a row.
The three-month average is now 60,000, the slowest since March.
While uninspired, August’s gain nevertheless marked the 14th consecutive month of private-sector jobs growth.
The details were mixed. On the goods-providing side, American factories shed 17,000 jobs, a result at odds with the generally upbeat (albeit caveat-laden) message from another expansion-territory ISM manufacturing report.
As the figure shows, that was the largest monthly drop in a year, and it may suggest manufacturers are at wits’ end with what one ISM panelist described as an “annoying” US economy.
On the services side, professional and business services shed 16,000 jobs, erasing nearly all of the additions from the prior three months.
It’s worth noting that since ChatGPT launched, the professional and business services category in the ADP release is down nearly half a million.
As the figure shows, the bleeding stopped around this time last year, and the situation appeared to stabilize in 2026 after a feeble rebound petered out.
Data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas shows AI’s the main “cause” (I still think “scapegoat” might be the better term) for job cuts this year. Thursday’s Challenger update will likely show a continuation of the trend.
Elsewhere in Wednesday’s ADP release, education and health services added the most positions (I assume some of that’s seasonal), while leisure and hospitality chipped in 16,000, offsetting the loss in professional and business services. (ChatGPT can tell you how to mix a drink, but it can’t do the mixing.)
“Pay can tell us a lot about today’s choppy hiring,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said, in the color accompanying the release. “Once-predictable wage growth has been overtaken by the complexities of demographic change, persistent inflation and AI’s effects on jobs.”
