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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

‘Get Used To It’: China Fails To Brake Investment, Spending Collapse

June 16, 2026July 12, 2026

Don’t worry, it’s all part of the plan. Or part of a plan that aims

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9 Comments on ‘Get Used To It’: China Fails To Brake Investment, Spending Collapse

A Bull Market In Watershed Moments

June 15, 2026June 17, 2026

Epochal change is everywhere. Have you noticed that? There’s a bull market in tectonic shifts.

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9 Comments on A Bull Market In Watershed Moments

The Boring Fundamentals

June 15, 2026June 16, 2026

The fundamentals are sound! How many times have I said that recently amid a US

Read More

6 Comments on The Boring Fundamentals

Monkey Gone to Heaven

June 15, 2026June 16, 2026

Different month, same joke: There’s a “legendary” builder in The White House. That means US

Read More

5 Comments on Monkey Gone to Heaven

‘Let The Oil Flow!’

June 15, 2026June 16, 2026

A grateful world sang the praises of Donald Trump on Monday, after the FIFA Peace

Read More

17 Comments on ‘Let The Oil Flow!’

Anemoia

June 14, 2026June 15, 2026

Much to the chagrin of — let’s round up or, who knows, maybe I’m actually

Read More

17 Comments on Anemoia

‘Which Warsh?’ What To Expect From The June FOMC

June 14, 2026June 15, 2026

“Which Kevin Warsh will show up” at this week’s FOMC press conference, Bloomberg Economics wondered.

Read More

9 Comments on ‘Which Warsh?’ What To Expect From The June FOMC

Kevin Warsh’s Audience Of One

June 13, 2026June 15, 2026

I reckon I’d raise rates. If I were the Fed, I mean. I’d need to

Read More

11 Comments on Kevin Warsh’s Audience Of One

Weekly: Is SpaceX IPO (And Elon Musk, Trillionaire) The Top?

June 12, 2026June 15, 2026

I don’t think the bubble — if that’s what it is — bursts before OpenAI

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10 Comments on Weekly: Is SpaceX IPO (And Elon Musk, Trillionaire) The Top?

Are We There Yet? To Peace, I Mean.

June 12, 2026June 14, 2026

Oh, you’re exhausted with reading about a deal (or an “agreement,” or an “arrangement,” or

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10 Comments on Are We There Yet? To Peace, I Mean.

Moonshot. Literally.

June 12, 2026June 14, 2026

We believe we have identified the largest actionable total addressable market in human history. —

Read More

18 Comments on Moonshot. Literally.

Rock Bottom Was Solid Foundation For US Consumer Moods

June 12, 2026June 13, 2026

Well, you know what they say about rock bottom: It’s a solid foundation. After hitting

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Leave a Comment on Rock Bottom Was Solid Foundation For US Consumer Moods

Trump ‘Cancels’ Iran Attack, Says War ‘Settled’

June 11, 2026June 12, 2026

Donald Trump who, as of 8:22 AM in Washington on Thursday, was prepared to hit

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14 Comments on Trump ‘Cancels’ Iran Attack, Says War ‘Settled’

US Military Could Seize Kharg Island Soon, Trump Says

June 11, 2026June 12, 2026

Donald Trump, tired of being strung along by the “brotherhood” of IRGC commanders, former and

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9 Comments on US Military Could Seize Kharg Island Soon, Trump Says

Europe Faces Stagflation As ECB Hikes, Sees Slower Growth

June 11, 2026June 12, 2026

The ECB on Thursday became the first G7 central bank to raise rates as a

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2 Comments on Europe Faces Stagflation As ECB Hikes, Sees Slower Growth

Wholesale US Inflation Soars On Largest-Ever Goods Increase

June 11, 2026June 12, 2026

Wholesale inflation was uncomfortably warm in May, the BLS said, in Thursday’s only notable US

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1 Comment on Wholesale US Inflation Soars On Largest-Ever Goods Increase

Oracle’s Back In The News

June 11, 2026June 11, 2026

Oracle was back in the news on Thursday. And not just in the news, but

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Corrosion

June 10, 2026June 11, 2026

I suppose we should all know better than to instruct a man who was reelected

Read More

2 Comments on Corrosion

Trump ‘Loves The Inflation’ As ‘Stealth’ Flows Cap Oil Surge

June 10, 2026June 11, 2026

Not a day goes by. When Donald Trump doesn’t make me chuckle. Dejectedly, disdainfully, despairingly,

Read More

8 Comments on Trump ‘Loves The Inflation’ As ‘Stealth’ Flows Cap Oil Surge

US Inflation Tame As It Can Be Under The Circumstances

June 10, 2026June 11, 2026

Good news: Core inflation in the US was much cooler than expected last month, if

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1 Comment on US Inflation Tame As It Can Be Under The Circumstances

China’s Coming Margin Crunch

June 10, 2026June 11, 2026

What happens when your input costs surge in a domestic macro environment characterized by lackluster

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Lingua Franca

June 9, 2026June 10, 2026

“Stop resisting!” Every time I hear about the IRGC lobbing missiles at Israel, dispatching drones

Read More

4 Comments on Lingua Franca

‘Great News’ For US Housing? Color Me Skeptical.

June 9, 2026June 10, 2026

Could’ve been worse. I’ll say that much for it. I realize that’s the same assessment

Read More

5 Comments on ‘Great News’ For US Housing? Color Me Skeptical.

How’s It Feel To Be A Sucker? Congratulations!

June 9, 2026June 10, 2026

A lot of small business owners in America are notoriously susceptible to GOP supply-side macroeconomic

Read More

7 Comments on How’s It Feel To Be A Sucker? Congratulations!

China (Still) Making $500 Million An Hour On AI-Driven Export Boom

June 9, 2026June 10, 2026

With the high-tech arms race in full throttle, scarcely anything else matters. That’s a lesson

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1 Comment on China (Still) Making $500 Million An Hour On AI-Driven Export Boom

The Largest Profit Boom In History

June 8, 2026June 9, 2026

“Quite simply extraordinary.” That’s how SocGen’s Andrew Lapthorne described the recent inflection in consensus profit

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4 Comments on The Largest Profit Boom In History

‘Take Profits,’ Subramanian Says. ‘Too Many Red Flags.’

June 8, 2026June 9, 2026

Frank Cross: Well, it’s a little late for this kind of feedback. Eliot Loudermilk: That’s

Read More

1 Comment on ‘Take Profits,’ Subramanian Says. ‘Too Many Red Flags.’

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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