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Featured

Trial Balloon

November 10, 2026November 10, 2026
  • He’s An Importer-Exporter, Okay?

    November 10, 2026
  • The Dark Side Of Liquidity: The Genealogy Of The AI Arms Race

    November 9, 2026
  • Megaspeed Indeed. (Two Huangs Don’t Make A Right)

    November 9, 2026November 9, 2026

Markets

Buy The Dip? (Honeypot Training)

November 9, 2026November 10, 2026
  • Jensen Got Honey-Trapped

    November 8, 2026November 9, 2026
  • Weekly: Melodrama

    November 7, 2026November 9, 2026
  • ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • On Wall Street: Crash And F’in’ Burn

    November 5, 2026November 7, 2026

economy

What Are Treasurys Telling Us?

November 9, 2026November 10, 2026
  • Inflation Week!

    November 8, 2026November 9, 2026
  • Inflation Fatalism Has Set In

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • Drunken Monkey Darts

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • ‘Tis The Season! For Temporary Fulfillment Jobs

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026

Geopolitics

Rasputin Presiding

November 8, 2026November 9, 2026

Tsunami

November 4, 2026November 5, 2026

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026

Duly Noted

US Jobless Claims Chase History

November 5, 2026November 7, 2026

Tech Got No Love This Earnings Season

November 3, 2026November 8, 2026

Call Me Back

August 6, 2026August 8, 2026

Donald Trump’s been on the phone with Kevin Warsh “repeatedly” since May. Imagine that. Before

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3 Comments on Call Me Back

Reminder: ‘Run It Hot’ Is Good For Stocks

August 6, 2026August 7, 2026

If you’re like me, you’re a little Warsh-ed out by now, which is to say

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1 Comment on Reminder: ‘Run It Hot’ Is Good For Stocks

Kevin Has A Dream

August 6, 2026August 7, 2026

I’m not sure it’s the kind of print you’d expect in a “renaissance,” but US

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5 Comments on Kevin Has A Dream

I’m Sorry, Dave

August 6, 2026August 7, 2026

If you work at a company dedicated to developing advanced AI models, or if your

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7 Comments on I’m Sorry, Dave

Wherever I Lay My Hat

August 5, 2026August 6, 2026

I suppose this goes without saying, but the highest US mortgage rates in a year

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13 Comments on Wherever I Lay My Hat

Warsh And War Undermine US Housing

August 5, 2026August 7, 2026

Remember when Scott Bessent and Donald Trump were going to “focus on the 10-year Treasury

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3 Comments on Warsh And War Undermine US Housing

Manufacturing > Services?

August 5, 2026August 6, 2026

The marquee gauge of activity in the biggest part of the world’s largest economy suggested

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Leave a Comment on Manufacturing > Services?

US Private Hiring Cools Sharply, Pay Gap Widens

August 5, 2026August 6, 2026

Private sector hiring in the US decelerated sharply in July even as employers added jobs

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3 Comments on US Private Hiring Cools Sharply, Pay Gap Widens

Space Is To SpaceX What The Metaverse Is To Meta

August 4, 2026August 5, 2026

A company which, according to itself, has identified the “largest addressable market in human history,”

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3 Comments on Space Is To SpaceX What The Metaverse Is To Meta

Lazarus On Biker Speed

August 4, 2026August 5, 2026

The equities right-tail (i.e., crash-up risk) was back in play on Wall Street, where US

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8 Comments on Lazarus On Biker Speed

Trillions

August 4, 2026August 5, 2026

Hyper-scaler capex estimates are still climbing. And with free cash flow dwindling, management has little

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2 Comments on Trillions

Who Wants A Job?

August 4, 2026August 4, 2026

Total job openings across the world’s largest economy fell the most in months, even as

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Leave a Comment on Who Wants A Job?

‘It’s The Earnings, Stupid’

August 4, 2026August 5, 2026

US equities were a hair’s breadth from setting new records early this week. If you’re

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2 Comments on ‘It’s The Earnings, Stupid’

About The Yen…

August 3, 2026August 4, 2026

Like everything else to do with Washington these days, the Trump administration’s effort to help

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7 Comments on About The Yen…

US Manufacturing Gets Best Health Check In Four Years

August 3, 2026August 4, 2026

The 2026 expansion across America’s formerly beset manufacturing sector broadened meaningfully in July, the first

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Leave a Comment on US Manufacturing Gets Best Health Check In Four Years

Strait Management

August 3, 2026August 4, 2026

Long-end bond yields need another dramatic escalation in the Mideast about like they need more

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6 Comments on Strait Management

Summer Jobs

August 2, 2026August 4, 2026

It’s jobs week in America. Who’s excited?! Nobody. Nobody’s excited. Because it’s the first week

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9 Comments on Summer Jobs

‘Moron Risk’

August 1, 2026August 3, 2026

And I thought I was a harsh critic. In the wake of Kevin Warsh’s botched

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7 Comments on ‘Moron Risk’

Weekly: Warsh’s Instant Credibility Crisis

July 31, 2026August 3, 2026

What’d we learn this week? Three things, I reckon. First, we learned markets don’t necessarily

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11 Comments on Weekly: Warsh’s Instant Credibility Crisis

Ken Griffin Saves Genius From Himself

July 31, 2026August 3, 2026

It’s the same story every time. That makes it not only less interesting for me,

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14 Comments on Ken Griffin Saves Genius From Himself

In South Korea, Total Madness

July 31, 2026August 2, 2026

“Daddy needs a new pair of shoes!” I tried, but I couldn’t conjure a fresh

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7 Comments on In South Korea, Total Madness

Amazon Beats On AWS ‘Boom,’ Apple Results Marred By China ‘Miss’

July 30, 2026July 31, 2026

Large numbers. Amazon raked in more than $200 billion in net sales during the second

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4 Comments on Amazon Beats On AWS ‘Boom,’ Apple Results Marred By China ‘Miss’

Warsh, Apologists Suddenly Unsure About This ‘Mr. Market’ Fellow

July 30, 2026August 1, 2026

Told you so. I told you he wasn’t credible, and now the market’s telling you the

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17 Comments on Warsh, Apologists Suddenly Unsure About This ‘Mr. Market’ Fellow

Old, Good News

July 30, 2026July 31, 2026

Underlying price growth on the Fed’s preferred inflation metric decelerated sharply in June from the

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1 Comment on Old, Good News

Underlying Demand Very Strong, US GDP Report Suggests

July 30, 2026July 31, 2026

The US economy expanded at a slower-than-expected pace in the second quarter, as net trade

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1 Comment on Underlying Demand Very Strong, US GDP Report Suggests

Warsh Asked Markets To Speak. He Didn’t Like What He Heard

July 29, 2026July 30, 2026

“Collegial and constructive.” That’s how Kevin Warsh described this week’s FOMC meeting while regaling reporters

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14 Comments on Warsh Asked Markets To Speak. He Didn’t Like What He Heard

Microsoft Beats With Azure, Meta Underwhelms With Sales Guide

July 29, 2026July 30, 2026

Microsoft beat estimates for overall revenue and reported the fastest cloud growth in four years

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2 Comments on Microsoft Beats With Azure, Meta Underwhelms With Sales Guide

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  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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