Abu Dhabi’s seen enough.
On Wednesday, the Emirates imposed a complete trade embargo on Tehran after the defense ministry said the IRGC fired two ballistic missiles at the UAE the previous day.
Only one of the projectiles actually made it into UAE territorial waters, but the attack, which marked the first time since May that Iran targeted the Emirates directly, was a last straw moment for Abu Dhabi. Last week, the Emirates blamed the Guards for an incident in the Strait of Hormuz involving two ADNOC tankers.
Iran, the UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Wednesday, persists in “escalations that undermine peace and security in the region.” As a result, “all trade, commercial exchanges and financial transactions have been halted until further notice.”
The financial transactions part is a potential body blow for the Guards. The UAE’s a critical source of hard currency for the regime in Tehran. Depending on how strictly Abu Dhabi imposes the ban, the Guards could lose access to one of their main end-arounds for evading sanctions.
Iran takes this seriously enough that Abbas Araghchi’s spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei went out of his way to posit a conspiracy. The missiles the UAE cited in announcing the embargo were “a false flag operation,” Baghaei claimed on Wednesday, adding that the UAE should take account of “complexities caused by the continued mischief of America and [Israel].”
As a reminder, the UAE’s blazing its own trail. Unlike Riyadh and Doha, Abu Dhabi sided definitively with the US in adopting a hardline stance on the regime. The UAE, which pulled itself out of OPEC in April after years of tensions with the Saudis, has also put itself under the Israeli security umbrella.
Wednesday’s landmark decision to suspend trade and economic ties comes as the 60-day window for the US and Iran to reach a durable agreement to end the war expired with no breakthrough. The White House is sticking with an obstinate approach that mirrors the IRGC’s intransigence.
Needless to say, some will assume a connection between the UAE’s new embargo and Donald Trump’s pivot to a maximum economic pressure campaign aimed at breaking Tehran’s resolve without resorting to more large-scale combat operations.
Marco Rubio spoke earlier this week to the UAE’s national security adviser, according to a brief readout from the State Department. Among the topics discussed: “Continued US-UAE coordination to hold Iran accountable for ongoing attacks.”
Meanwhile, the Financial Times said Iran’s weighing whether to attack US bases in Europe in the event Trump decides to start bombing the country again.
Sociopaths naturally accrue to where accountability is most lax.
This will become the dumbest beginning to a world war out of all of them. Completely avoidable and yet here we are gradually sliding towards one. If Trump had just left a couple of months ago the damage would have been limited, but his ego won’t let him do that.
The way Trump talked about making the Strait of Hormuz a US territory got me thinking about a possible scenario. What if he escalated the rhetoric on Oman to the point where the US puts boots on the ground on the Musandam Peninsula and effectively annexes it? He could then claim that the Straits are in US territorial waters. This would obviate the need for invading Iran proper, and it would simplify the logistics of holding the territory immeasurably by running supplies through the UAE. I have no clue about the political feasibility of such a move, but from a military standpoint, it would be much simpler – assuming the US has an arsenal left. It doesn’t solve the “nuclear dust” problem, but it could be the victory Trump needs. Let’s hope the increased financial pressure works.
Why would US troops on the Oman side of the SOH reduce Iran’s ability to target shipping from the Iran side?
It would not. It would, however, stir things up. In some ways, it could be similar to what China is doing in the South China Sea. https://www.bairdmaritime.com/security/naval/feature-beijing-expands-reach-in-disputed-south-china-sea-with-new-man-made-island
Is it possible that IRGC is not completely in control of all factions of Iranians? Were those missile launches approved by “the central powers” or not?
If those missile launchings were not approved, the IRGC cental powers would still need to pretend like they did approve the launches- otherwise, central commanders look incredibly weak/not in control.