Breadth Metrics Plunge, Fanning Narrow Market Worries

If you like your rallies broad and your breadth “healthy,” you’re not enamored with 2026’s US equity market.

Let’s run through some numbers.

Prior to Friday’s rates-driven swoon, the S&P was up 10% or so for 2026, and as Goldman’s Ben Snider noted in his latest, Info Tech, Comms Services, Amazon and Tesla together accounted for some 85% of the YTD advance.

Nvidia alone’s responsible for around a fifth of the cap-weighted benchmark’s gain this year. Alphabet more than 15%.

The figure above shows you the top 10 list. It’s just tech, “tech,” semis and, quietly, Caterpillar, which is enjoying an enormous rally on optimism around demand for data center power generators.

Ex-TMT, the S&P’s only returned 3% this year. Info Tech proper accounts for two-thirds of the index’s YTD advance. Comms Services 13%.

As you can imagine, the extreme concentration’s manifesting in equally extreme readings on measures of breadth, including the Goldman metric shown on the left, below.

This is, simply put, one of the narrowest markets in four decades.

The figure on the right’s even more stark. While the S&P notched 14 new record highs since the Iran war lows in late-March, the number of index members trading above their 200-DMA trended lower, creating an eye-watering disconnect.

Indeed, as Snider went on to note, the median S&P 500 stock “now trades 13% below its 52-week high,” despite the benchmark’s succession of new records.

So, is this bad? Or, more to the point, is it foreboding? Well, it’s not ideal, that’s for sure. But as Snider reminded investors, it’s not a death knell.

“Today’s narrow breadth is not necessarily a bearish directional indicator for the equity market,” he wrote. “Comparably narrow breadth in May 2023 preceded a period of S&P 500 volatility during the following few months but not the end of the bull market, and breadth today is far less narrow than the market in 1999-2000.”


 

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