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Featured

Trial Balloon

November 10, 2026November 10, 2026
  • He’s An Importer-Exporter, Okay?

    November 10, 2026
  • The Dark Side Of Liquidity: The Genealogy Of The AI Arms Race

    November 9, 2026
  • Megaspeed Indeed. (Two Huangs Don’t Make A Right)

    November 9, 2026November 9, 2026

Markets

Buy The Dip? (Honeypot Training)

November 9, 2026November 10, 2026
  • Jensen Got Honey-Trapped

    November 8, 2026November 9, 2026
  • Weekly: Melodrama

    November 7, 2026November 9, 2026
  • ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • On Wall Street: Crash And F’in’ Burn

    November 5, 2026November 7, 2026

economy

What Are Treasurys Telling Us?

November 9, 2026November 10, 2026
  • Inflation Week!

    November 8, 2026November 9, 2026
  • Inflation Fatalism Has Set In

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • Drunken Monkey Darts

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • ‘Tis The Season! For Temporary Fulfillment Jobs

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026

Geopolitics

Rasputin Presiding

November 8, 2026November 9, 2026

Tsunami

November 4, 2026November 5, 2026

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026

Duly Noted

US Jobless Claims Chase History

November 5, 2026November 7, 2026

Tech Got No Love This Earnings Season

November 3, 2026November 8, 2026

Warsh Holds Rates In Riven FOMC Nail-Biter

July 29, 2026July 30, 2026

The Fed kept rates on hold Wednesday, as expected. “As expected” needs a giant asterisk.

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9 Comments on Warsh Holds Rates In Riven FOMC Nail-Biter

Mideast Melee Rekindled

July 29, 2026July 30, 2026

“Many important subjects were discussed” when Donald Trump met at The White House early this

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10 Comments on Mideast Melee Rekindled

Chip Boom Risks Becoming Financial Crisis For South Korea

July 29, 2026July 29, 2026

Now it’s getting really ugly. Shares of SK Hynix, which had already halved from their

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18 Comments on Chip Boom Risks Becoming Financial Crisis For South Korea

Warsh, Trump And The Case For 50

July 28, 2026July 29, 2026

Ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting, allow me to reiterate my deeply-held view that a

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9 Comments on Warsh, Trump And The Case For 50

In US Housing, The Worst Of All Possible Worlds?

July 28, 2026July 30, 2026

Price growth’s re-accelerating in the US housing market, according to the marquee measures of national

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1 Comment on In US Housing, The Worst Of All Possible Worlds?

As Long As The Stocks Go Up…

July 28, 2026July 29, 2026

They don’t love it. “They” are US households, which is to say American voters. “It”

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Leave a Comment on As Long As The Stocks Go Up…

The Casino’s On Fire

July 28, 2026July 29, 2026

Another day, another absolutely harrowing session in the casino that is South Korea’s domestic equity

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2 Comments on The Casino’s On Fire

Skepticism Swirls Around Semis As Hyper-Scalers Report

July 27, 2026July 28, 2026

Chip stocks looked shaky at the beginning of what could be a pivotal week for

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1 Comment on Skepticism Swirls Around Semis As Hyper-Scalers Report

Red Scare Day

July 27, 2026July 28, 2026

The chips were down again in the US on Monday, when the SOX slipped back

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5 Comments on Red Scare Day

In China, Fond Memory

July 27, 2026July 28, 2026

They’re excited in China, where the nation’s notoriously high-strung retail set bid for more than

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Leave a Comment on In China, Fond Memory

A Pivotal, Perilous Week

July 26, 2026July 28, 2026

It’s a big week in macro-market land, where investors will parse policy decisions from three

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4 Comments on A Pivotal, Perilous Week

Hyper-Scaler Earnings Highlight Market’s Catch-22

July 26, 2026July 27, 2026

A tough post-earnings trade for Alphabet last week despite a very strong Google Cloud readout

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8 Comments on Hyper-Scaler Earnings Highlight Market’s Catch-22

What To Expect From The July FOMC

July 25, 2026July 27, 2026

If the question’s what to expect from Kevin Warsh at the July FOMC meeting, I’m

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6 Comments on What To Expect From The July FOMC

Weekly: ABB

July 24, 2026July 27, 2026

“Anything but bonds.” That’s been the zeitgeist (or the mantra) for the better part of

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4 Comments on Weekly: ABB

Bombed-Out Housing Needs More Than Price Cuts

July 24, 2026July 26, 2026

Last week, in an update detailing yet another in a never-ending stretch of abysmal reads

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5 Comments on Bombed-Out Housing Needs More Than Price Cuts

Trump, Human Rights Champion, Takes Aim At Forced Labor

July 24, 2026July 26, 2026

Donald Trump, noted human rights crusader, is doing his part to combat forced labor around

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5 Comments on Trump, Human Rights Champion, Takes Aim At Forced Labor

So, Kevin: What’s It Gonna Be?

July 23, 2026July 25, 2026

“I am considering a massive attack. Bigger than ever before,” Donald Trump said Thursday, in

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4 Comments on So, Kevin: What’s It Gonna Be?

‘Hell Freezes Over’ As Uber-Bear Edwards Says ‘Everything’s Fine’

July 23, 2026July 25, 2026

For all the concern about the hawkish read-across for monetary policy of rising energy costs,

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Leave a Comment on ‘Hell Freezes Over’ As Uber-Bear Edwards Says ‘Everything’s Fine’

Call In The Goat Herders!

July 23, 2026July 24, 2026

Cue the Tusken Raiders memes. The Houthis were front-page news Thursday after the group fired

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8 Comments on Call In The Goat Herders!

ECB Wishes All The Shooting Would Stop

July 23, 2026July 24, 2026

The Houthis weren’t discussed at any length at this week’s ECB meeting, in case you

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Leave a Comment on ECB Wishes All The Shooting Would Stop

Tesla Bewilders With Convoluted Update

July 22, 2026July 23, 2026

I don’t find Tesla’s quarterly reports to be especially useful, which means I don’t especially

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2 Comments on Tesla Bewilders With Convoluted Update

‘Real Measurable Value’

July 22, 2026July 23, 2026

Alphabet’s Cloud business blew past estimates in Q2 results released after the bell on Wall

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14 Comments on ‘Real Measurable Value’

Dude, Where’s My Sky-Dweller?

July 22, 2026July 23, 2026

The VIX is sub-20, one-month trailing realized vol’s sub-11 and measures of relative demand for

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5 Comments on Dude, Where’s My Sky-Dweller?

The Yen Canary

July 22, 2026July 23, 2026

Better do somethin.’ It’s gettin’ out of hand. And the intervention ain’t workin.’ The yen

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1 Comment on The Yen Canary

Near-Death Experiences

July 21, 2026July 22, 2026

I used to think it was silly when a dear friend — one of the

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27 Comments on Near-Death Experiences

In China, A Quant Quake

July 21, 2026July 22, 2026

China’s propping up the chips. On Tuesday, an ETF that tracks an index of the

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2 Comments on In China, A Quant Quake

Tariff Man Returns

July 21, 2026July 22, 2026

Tariff man’s back. And in this case, that means it’s no longer safe to procrastinate

Read More

9 Comments on Tariff Man Returns

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

  • dayjob on Megaspeed Indeed. (Two Huangs Don’t Make A Right)
  • dayjob on The Dark Side Of Liquidity: The Genealogy Of The AI Arms Race
  • dayjob on Trial Balloon
  • Mr. Lucky on The Dark Side Of Liquidity: The Genealogy Of The AI Arms Race

Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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