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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

It Takes A (Potemkin) Village

May 31, 2026June 1, 2026

It’s jobs week in the US, where overall employment probably expanded in May at a

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1 Comment on It Takes A (Potemkin) Village

Why The Hyper-Scalers Are ‘Cheap’

May 30, 2026June 1, 2026

Are the hyper-scalers cheap? That might seem like a ridiculous question. It’s tempting to shout,

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5 Comments on Why The Hyper-Scalers Are ‘Cheap’

War, Peace, Stocks, Bonds And Oil

May 30, 2026June 1, 2026

Although equities grabbed all the headlines on their way to a ninth consecutive weekly advance,

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Leave a Comment on War, Peace, Stocks, Bonds And Oil

Weekly: Going Streaking

May 29, 2026May 31, 2026

If the S&P 500 managed merely to avoid a 1.5% loss during this week’s final

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7 Comments on Weekly: Going Streaking

From ‘Old’ Tech To New, AI Train Shows ‘No Signs Of Slowing’

May 29, 2026May 31, 2026

There are “no signs of slowing” in demand for AI-related hardware. So said Dell COO

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10 Comments on From ‘Old’ Tech To New, AI Train Shows ‘No Signs Of Slowing’

‘The Perfect Picture’ Of The Melt-Up Zeitgeist

May 28, 2026May 30, 2026

The only thing to fear is the right-tail. That’s the mindset markets have been forced

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5 Comments on ‘The Perfect Picture’ Of The Melt-Up Zeitgeist

US, Iran Agree To Keep Talking

May 28, 2026May 30, 2026

An agreement to keep talking. And to reopen the world’s most vital shipping lane. That’s

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4 Comments on US, Iran Agree To Keep Talking

On Second Thought…

May 28, 2026May 28, 2026

The US economic expansion was less robust than initially reported in Q1. That was the

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2 Comments on On Second Thought…

War-Torn: US Saving Rate Plunges As Annual Inflation Soars

May 28, 2026May 29, 2026

Underlying, monthly (note the emphasis) inflation was cooler than expected across the world’s largest economy

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1 Comment on War-Torn: US Saving Rate Plunges As Annual Inflation Soars

Three Months Later…

May 28, 2026May 29, 2026

On March 2, Donald Trump used a Medal of Honor ceremony in the East Room

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6 Comments on Three Months Later…

On A Wing, A Prayer And A Pipe Dream

May 27, 2026May 28, 2026

While editorializing around Goldman’s shiny new price target for the S&P on Wednesday, I noted

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12 Comments on On A Wing, A Prayer And A Pipe Dream

$117,000 Or Homeless

May 27, 2026June 2, 2026

Has your income, or your household’s income, doubled over the last half a dozen years?

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4 Comments on $117,000 Or Homeless

Blueberry Vinegar (SPX 8K)

May 27, 2026May 28, 2026

“David Kostin would’ve raised his year-end target by now.” That was among the dozens of

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4 Comments on Blueberry Vinegar (SPX 8K)

Bargain Or Bubble? 1,000% SK Hynix Rally Epitomizes Semi Paradox

May 27, 2026May 28, 2026

SK Hynix is up 3,500% (give or take) since the original COVID panic. Mull that

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2 Comments on Bargain Or Bubble? 1,0002 SK Hynix Rally Epitomizes Semi Paradox

More Chips, Please!

May 26, 2026May 27, 2026

It was, um, too early to fade the chip rally. I’ve conceded that particular point

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6 Comments on More Chips, Please!

Tragedy Strikes As Americans Cut Back On ‘Want’ Buying

May 26, 2026May 27, 2026

Household views of current US economic conditions slipped in May and a measure of expectations

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6 Comments on Tragedy Strikes As Americans Cut Back On ‘Want’ Buying

Real US Home Prices Fall Most In Three Years On War Inflation

May 26, 2026June 2, 2026

Between an ongoing decline in the annual rate of nominal home price appreciation and the

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17 Comments on Real US Home Prices Fall Most In Three Years On War Inflation

Bombs Astray

May 26, 2026May 27, 2026

“Death is but a door; time is but a window,” Mojtaba Khamenei declared on Tuesday.

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11 Comments on Bombs Astray

Profits Over Prophets

May 25, 2026May 26, 2026

War, what is it good for? The song tells us “absolutely nothing,” but it’s apparently

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8 Comments on Profits Over Prophets

Peace Hopes Drive European Stock Rally Despite ECB

May 25, 2026May 26, 2026

Hooray for MOU day! The persistence of sticking points in the US-Iran diplomatic process (and

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Inflation, Hikes And Hawks

May 24, 2026May 26, 2026

The holiday-shortened US trading week offers a hodgepodge of relevant macro releases, although nothing with

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A ‘MOU Pertaining To Peace’

May 24, 2026May 26, 2026

We have a deal to end the war! No, wait. Sorry. I jumped the gun.

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20 Comments on A ‘MOU Pertaining To Peace’

Losing Our Correlation Religion

May 23, 2026May 25, 2026

The stock rally needed the bond selloff to abate. And it did, however transient the

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3 Comments on Losing Our Correlation Religion

Weekly: Stocks And The Cold Hot War

May 22, 2026May 25, 2026

Two Saturdays ago, after the S&P notched a sixth consecutive weekly advance, I noted that

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Markets Fully Price 2026 Fed Hike As Warsh Sworn In

May 22, 2026May 24, 2026

“Ruh roh.” On Friday, for the first time this year, traders fully priced one 25bps

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1 Comment on Markets Fully Price 2026 Fed Hike As Warsh Sworn In

The Worst Consumer Sentiment Report Ever. Again.

May 22, 2026May 24, 2026

Gosh. Golly gee. Whodathunk. For at least the third time during his second term, Donald

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5 Comments on The Worst Consumer Sentiment Report Ever. Again.

A Bear In A Bubble

May 21, 2026May 23, 2026

“Do you not think this global bond bear market is going to break the US

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9 Comments on A Bear In A Bubble

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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