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Trial Balloon

November 10, 2026November 10, 2026
  • He’s An Importer-Exporter, Okay?

    November 10, 2026
  • The Dark Side Of Liquidity: The Genealogy Of The AI Arms Race

    November 9, 2026
  • Megaspeed Indeed. (Two Huangs Don’t Make A Right)

    November 9, 2026November 9, 2026

Markets

Buy The Dip? (Honeypot Training)

November 9, 2026November 10, 2026
  • Jensen Got Honey-Trapped

    November 8, 2026November 9, 2026
  • Weekly: Melodrama

    November 7, 2026November 9, 2026
  • ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • On Wall Street: Crash And F’in’ Burn

    November 5, 2026November 7, 2026

economy

What Are Treasurys Telling Us?

November 9, 2026November 10, 2026
  • Inflation Week!

    November 8, 2026November 9, 2026
  • Inflation Fatalism Has Set In

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • Drunken Monkey Darts

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • ‘Tis The Season! For Temporary Fulfillment Jobs

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026

Geopolitics

Rasputin Presiding

November 8, 2026November 9, 2026

Tsunami

November 4, 2026November 5, 2026

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026

Duly Noted

US Jobless Claims Chase History

November 5, 2026November 7, 2026

Tech Got No Love This Earnings Season

November 3, 2026November 8, 2026

Gravity Comes For The Momentum Trade

July 20, 2026July 22, 2026

How extreme is the July 2026 momentum unwind? Asked exactly no one with a life.

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5 Comments on Gravity Comes For The Momentum Trade

Chips And Dips

July 20, 2026July 21, 2026

Semis might stage a near-term bounce, but assuming overall equity market gains hold into year-end,

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1 Comment on Chips And Dips

Meanwhile, The Momentum Trade’s Blowing Up

July 20, 2026July 21, 2026

I’ve spoken at some length recently about the juxtaposition between low index volatility and extremely

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Leave a Comment on Meanwhile, The Momentum Trade’s Blowing Up

Traffic Jam

July 20, 2026July 21, 2026

Once upon a time on America’s roads and highways, traffic congestion was reliably accompanied by

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14 Comments on Traffic Jam

Boring But For The Bombs

July 19, 2026July 20, 2026

Thank God the war’s back on, otherwise we might be set up for a rather

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7 Comments on Boring But For The Bombs

Shortages And Extortion In A Post-Neoliberal World

July 18, 2026July 20, 2026

Not everyone liked “Mark Carney Was Wrong.” In that linked article, I suggested the so-called “middle

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14 Comments on Shortages And Extortion In A Post-Neoliberal World

Weekly: Ok, What Now?

July 17, 2026July 20, 2026

Semis slipped towards a bear market, SpaceX was down 45% from its intraday high on

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6 Comments on Weekly: Ok, What Now?

Take A Hint, Man

July 17, 2026July 20, 2026

I didn’t watch Donald Trump’s prime time White House address on election “integrity” this week.

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12 Comments on Take A Hint, Man

Kimi Cometh

July 17, 2026July 19, 2026

If you ask Xi Jinping, no country should command a monopoly on bleeding-edge AI. And

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8 Comments on Kimi Cometh

Stock For Sale!

July 16, 2026July 18, 2026

Stock for sale! Who wants some?! Equity supply’s a hot topic in 2026. Maybe you

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1 Comment on Stock For Sale!

Have We Spent Enough On The Damn Chatbots Yet?

July 16, 2026July 17, 2026

One of the biggest questions on investors’ minds in the back-half of 2026 asks if

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5 Comments on Have We Spent Enough On The Damn Chatbots Yet?

God Save The Housing Market

July 16, 2026July 17, 2026

God save the homebuilders. And US housing more generally. A pair of private-sector updates painted

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Americans Are Still Spending

July 16, 2026July 16, 2026

Retail sales data for the world’s largest economy matched estimates in figures released Thursday by

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5 Comments on Americans Are Still Spending

Stock Chaos, FX Crash Put South Korea In Firefighter Mode

July 16, 2026July 17, 2026

“Local officials have to rein this in somehow.” So said yours truly earlier this week,

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11 Comments on Stock Chaos, FX Crash Put South Korea In Firefighter Mode

What ‘Landing’?

July 15, 2026July 22, 2026

“Way” back in 2023, BofA started asking professional capital allocators about the most likely “landing”

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2 Comments on What ‘Landing’?

Melt-Up Setup?

July 15, 2026July 16, 2026

Is the stage set for a summer equity melt-up? That’s the question implicitly posed in

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3 Comments on Melt-Up Setup?

China’s A Mess

July 15, 2026July 16, 2026

The slowdown in China’s “temporary” and due in large part to “external factors.” That’s according

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Leave a Comment on China’s A Mess

BLS Hands Warsh Another Excuse

July 15, 2026July 16, 2026

There was more good news on the inflation front in the US Wednesday. A day

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1 Comment on BLS Hands Warsh Another Excuse

Kevin Warsh Makes A Promise

July 14, 2026July 15, 2026

Don’t worry everybody: Kevin Warsh has this under control. “This” being inflation. He said as

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6 Comments on Kevin Warsh Makes A Promise

Warsh, Trump Get Inflation Godsend

July 14, 2026July 15, 2026

Time to cut rates! Said Donald Trump on his morning conference call with Kevin Warsh.

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4 Comments on Warsh, Trump Get Inflation Godsend

Goldman’s Stock Traders Hit The Jackpot

July 14, 2026July 15, 2026

If you thought Q2 trading hauls at JPMorgan and BofA were impressive, wait until you

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2 Comments on Goldman’s Stock Traders Hit The Jackpot

‘China Shock 2.0’ Narrative Gathers Steam As Exports Boom

July 14, 2026July 15, 2026

The Chinese, um, shipped some stuff last month. More than $410 billion worth, in fact,

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2 Comments on ‘China Shock 2.0’ Narrative Gathers Steam As Exports Boom

JPMorgan, BofA Enjoy Huge Trading, IB Windfalls

July 14, 2026July 14, 2026

When you’re in the business of making markets and facilitating trades, volatility can be a

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2 Comments on JPMorgan, BofA Enjoy Huge Trading, IB Windfalls

Why Stocks Are Uniquely Vulnerable To Fed Hikes

July 13, 2026July 14, 2026

Earlier Monday, I mentioned that US equities could prove more sensitive to any rate hikes

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8 Comments on Why Stocks Are Uniquely Vulnerable To Fed Hikes

20%

July 13, 2026July 14, 2026

The Strait of Hormuz, which is closed, will remain open. So declared Donald Trump on

Read More

9 Comments on 209

What If Warsh Does Take A Hike?

July 13, 2026July 15, 2026

What happens to the S&P if Kevin Warsh hikes rates? Dumb question, I know. Because

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10 Comments on What If Warsh Does Take A Hike?

South Korean Regulators Have Lost Control

July 13, 2026July 14, 2026

Leave the local shares. Take the ADRs. One business day after celebrating the largest-ever debut

Read More

2 Comments on South Korean Regulators Have Lost Control

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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