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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Mojtaba Rules Out Transfer Of Iran’s Enriched Uranium

May 21, 2026May 22, 2026

As of mid-week, the US and Iran were closing in on a deal, according to

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10 Comments on Mojtaba Rules Out Transfer Of Iran’s Enriched Uranium

Is Nvidia Undervalued?

May 21, 2026May 22, 2026

I don’t fancy myself any sort of “expert” on tech, nor on anything else for

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1 Comment on Is Nvidia Undervalued?

Single-Family Home Construction Plummets

May 21, 2026May 22, 2026

New residential construction activity in the US decelerated last month, data released on Thursday showed.

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Nvidia Beats, Raises, Hikes Buybacks And Dividend

May 20, 2026May 21, 2026

Surprise: Nvidia topped estimates and guided ahead of consensus for current-quarter revenue in hotly-anticipated results

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4 Comments on Nvidia Beats, Raises, Hikes Buybacks And Dividend

Kevin Warsh Versus ‘Vast Majority’

May 20, 2026May 21, 2026

Good luck, Kevin. You’re gonna need it. That’s a concise summary of the April FOMC

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6 Comments on Kevin Warsh Versus ‘Vast Majority’

War Triggers Fastest US Mortgage-Rate Spike In Years

May 20, 2026May 21, 2026

Not surprisingly, and as tipped here last week, US mortgage rates posted another sharp increase

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2 Comments on War Triggers Fastest US Mortgage-Rate Spike In Years

‘Very Quickly And In A Very Nice Manner’?

May 20, 2026May 21, 2026

A couple of hours after four GOP senators broke ranks to help Democrats advance a

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2 Comments on ‘Very Quickly And In A Very Nice Manner’?

Strategic Partners, War Powers And A Plan Gone Awry

May 20, 2026May 20, 2026

A resumption of open military hostilities between the US, Israel and Iran is “unacceptable,” Xi

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2 Comments on Strategic Partners, War Powers And A Plan Gone Awry

Scott Bessent Has A Bond Problem

May 19, 2026May 20, 2026

“Rates are too high, Scott,” Donald Trump said, while hosting a high-level delegation from Riyadh

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7 Comments on Scott Bessent Has A Bond Problem

Hope Floats As Home Contract Signings Rise Third Month

May 19, 2026

Hope springs eternal. Contract activity in the still-frozen, but hopefully thawing, US housing market managed

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Beware The Market’s Negative Convexity Problem

May 19, 2026May 20, 2026

If and when a meaningful equity pullback finally comes calling, market participants may be “treated”

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1 Comment on Beware The Market’s Negative Convexity Problem

Kevin Warsh Should Tell Trump The Truth

May 19, 2026May 20, 2026

My advice to Kevin Warsh — not that he asked for it — is to

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9 Comments on Kevin Warsh Should Tell Trump The Truth

$450 Billion Goes ‘All In’ As Stock Bets Soar Most Ever

May 19, 2026May 20, 2026

Professional capital allocators with more than $450 billion in AUM cut cash levels and lifted

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‘The One Big Trade’

May 18, 2026May 19, 2026

Customers of Wall Street’s most prestigious firm, not to mention investors in general, are worried

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Iran War Hammers US Builder Mood

May 18, 2026May 19, 2026

Well, it could’ve been worse. The first of this week’s sparse US macro data offered

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Breadth Metrics Plunge, Fanning Narrow Market Worries

May 18, 2026May 19, 2026

If you like your rallies broad and your breadth “healthy,” you’re not enamored with 2026’s

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Xi Jinping’s Economy Just Had A Very, Very Bad Month

May 18, 2026May 19, 2026

Exports. That’s all Xi Jinping’s economy has going for it. On Monday, apparatchiks at the

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2 Comments on Xi Jinping’s Economy Just Had A Very, Very Bad Month

That Bear’s Got A Match!

May 17, 2026May 18, 2026

You missed it, didn’t you? The rally, I mean. The 30% Nasdaq surge from the

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2 Comments on That Bear’s Got A Match!

Summer Unofficially Begins With War, Ebola, Rates Panic

May 17, 2026May 18, 2026

Summer, and the lackadaisical torpidity that often accompanies it, are right around the corner. In

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15 Comments on Summer Unofficially Begins With War, Ebola, Rates Panic

The Fastest Way To Lose Voters

May 16, 2026May 18, 2026

It’s an election year in the US, in case you needed a reminder. In more

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10 Comments on The Fastest Way To Lose Voters

Weekly: Bonds Call Time-Out

May 15, 2026May 18, 2026

I’m both a rally skeptic and not. I harbor a deeply-engrained pessimism about more or

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7 Comments on Weekly: Bonds Call Time-Out

Are Chip Stocks The Biggest Bubble Since 1700?

May 15, 2026May 17, 2026

Stop the presses: As of noon on Friday in the US, red-hot semis were on

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9 Comments on Are Chip Stocks The Biggest Bubble Since 1700?

The Big Squeeze

May 15, 2026May 17, 2026

Thank God for the upper-half of the “K.” I mean, not in the sense that

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Stock Rally Menaced Anew By Inflation, Surging Bond Yields

May 15, 2026May 16, 2026

Eventually, stocks will correct. That was one message from BofA’s Michael Hartnett who, in the

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2 Comments on Stock Rally Menaced Anew By Inflation, Surging Bond Yields

The Buyers Were Still Higher

May 14, 2026May 15, 2026

Buyers are still higher in equities. Perhaps you noticed. The S&P headed into the US

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1 Comment on The Buyers Were Still Higher

Cisco Surge Is Pure Dot-Com Déjà Vu

May 14, 2026May 15, 2026

As if the sense of dot-com déjà vu wasn’t strong enough already. On Thursday, investors

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13 Comments on Cisco Surge Is Pure Dot-Com Déjà Vu

The US Consumer Refuses To Crack

May 14, 2026May 15, 2026

Nominal spending on gas and groceries rose in April in tandem with price increases for

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1 Comment on The US Consumer Refuses To Crack

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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