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Trial Balloon

November 10, 2026November 10, 2026
  • He’s An Importer-Exporter, Okay?

    November 10, 2026
  • The Dark Side Of Liquidity: The Genealogy Of The AI Arms Race

    November 9, 2026
  • Megaspeed Indeed. (Two Huangs Don’t Make A Right)

    November 9, 2026November 9, 2026

Markets

Buy The Dip? (Honeypot Training)

November 9, 2026November 10, 2026
  • Jensen Got Honey-Trapped

    November 8, 2026November 9, 2026
  • Weekly: Melodrama

    November 7, 2026November 9, 2026
  • ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • On Wall Street: Crash And F’in’ Burn

    November 5, 2026November 7, 2026

economy

What Are Treasurys Telling Us?

November 9, 2026November 10, 2026
  • Inflation Week!

    November 8, 2026November 9, 2026
  • Inflation Fatalism Has Set In

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • Drunken Monkey Darts

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • ‘Tis The Season! For Temporary Fulfillment Jobs

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026

Geopolitics

Rasputin Presiding

November 8, 2026November 9, 2026

Tsunami

November 4, 2026November 5, 2026

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026

Duly Noted

US Jobless Claims Chase History

November 5, 2026November 7, 2026

Tech Got No Love This Earnings Season

November 3, 2026November 8, 2026

Inflation Week

July 12, 2026July 15, 2026

It’s inflation week in the US, where the BLS is expected to tell American households

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7 Comments on Inflation Week

Strait Talk

July 12, 2026July 13, 2026

The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Again. A month on from Donald Trump’s declaration that

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9 Comments on Strait Talk

Weekly: Mark Carney Was Wrong

July 11, 2026July 13, 2026

Here’s your regular reminder: We’re not in Kansas anymore. Once every two or three months,

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29 Comments on Weekly: Mark Carney Was Wrong

If Stocks Are All That Counts…

July 10, 2026July 13, 2026

It hasn’t always been a smooth ride. In places, this particular rollercoaster was downright harrowing.

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6 Comments on If Stocks Are All That Counts…

‘Everybody’s Profiting’

July 10, 2026July 12, 2026

This week began with Donald Trump ringing the opening bells of both the New York

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5 Comments on ‘Everybody’s Profiting’

SK Hynix Makes History

July 10, 2026July 12, 2026

Say congratulations to SK Hynix, which now boasts the largest-ever American debut for a foreign

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3 Comments on SK Hynix Makes History

The Real Crisis Is In Japan, Albert Edwards Warns

July 9, 2026July 11, 2026

Albert Edwards thinks investors are too focused on the AI bubble (or “bubble,” in scare

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3 Comments on The Real Crisis Is In Japan, Albert Edwards Warns

US Home Prices Smash Record, Hit New High

July 9, 2026July 10, 2026

The median price of resold homes in America rose to a new all-time high in

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4 Comments on US Home Prices Smash Record, Hit New High

Burying The Dead, ‘Still Firing Back’

July 9, 2026July 10, 2026

If you’re curious as to why Iran might’ve decided to target commercial vessels in the

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4 Comments on Burying The Dead, ‘Still Firing Back’

Reflation Stalls In China

July 9, 2026July 10, 2026

Breaking news: China’s still teetering precariously on the brink of deflation. Maybe that’s a bit

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Leave a Comment on Reflation Stalls In China

Kevin Warsh Could Do Without More War

July 8, 2026July 12, 2026

If the ceasefire between the US and Iran is indeed “over,” as Donald Trump declared

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1 Comment on Kevin Warsh Could Do Without More War

Fed Officials Stressed Inflation Risk At Warsh’s First Meeting

July 8, 2026July 9, 2026

Much to the chagrin of Donald Trump’s new Fed chair, who’d prefer it if macro

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4 Comments on Fed Officials Stressed Inflation Risk At Warsh’s First Meeting

Did The Bubble Just Burst In South Korea?

July 8, 2026July 9, 2026

Did the bubble just burst? Just two weeks after clearing 9,000 in a move that

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War Resumes As US, Iran Trade Strikes

July 8, 2026July 9, 2026

The war’s back on. The IRGC on Wednesday struck US military installations in Bahrain and

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2 Comments on War Resumes As US, Iran Trade Strikes

Semis At Cliff’s Edge

July 7, 2026July 8, 2026

In the wake of Samsung’s earnings report and, cutting to the chase, a selloff in

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1 Comment on Semis At Cliff’s Edge

The Silver Lining

July 7, 2026July 12, 2026

I’m beating the “latent semi selloff” drum pretty hard. I promise I’m not short. Seriously.

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8 Comments on The Silver Lining

The Problem With Secret Weapons

July 7, 2026July 8, 2026

If you were so inclined, you could draw a parallel between Donald Trump’s efforts, in

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7 Comments on The Problem With Secret Weapons

When An 1,800% Profit Increase Isn’t Enough

July 7, 2026July 8, 2026

I’m not sure what would’ve counted as “good enough” from Samsung’s closely-watched quarterly report on

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4 Comments on When An 1,8004 Profit Increase Isn’t Enough

Sell The Semis, Buy The Hyper-Scalers?

July 6, 2026July 7, 2026

“Wiiiilsooon!” That’s the only part of Cast Away I know. I’m not a Tom Hanks

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5 Comments on Sell The Semis, Buy The Hyper-Scalers?

Decent Service

July 6, 2026July 7, 2026

Anyone unlucky (or junior) enough to be chained to a Bloomie the day after a

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Mr. Market’s A Boring Guy

July 6, 2026July 7, 2026

On summer days, the inherently repetitive nature of my hobby-job feels more oppressive than it

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1 Comment on Mr. Market’s A Boring Guy

Board Games

July 5, 2026July 7, 2026

Donald Trump still wants to commandeer the Fed board. In other words: The Supreme Court’s

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2 Comments on Board Games

Kevin’s Minutes

July 5, 2026July 6, 2026

To say the macro docket’s limited in the new week would be an understatement. In

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2 Comments on Kevin’s Minutes

Revolutions

July 4, 2026July 6, 2026

America celebrated its sestercentennial on Saturday, when millions of latent cardiac events shaped like spinning

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1 Comment on Revolutions

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Sixth sense (the iconoclast)   Casey’s an assistant manager at a supermarket chain in semi-rural

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21 Comments on Hell Or High Fashion

The Cost Of Leverage

July 3, 2026July 6, 2026

I like to kick off articles with a question, and there’s no question I enjoy

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4 Comments on The Cost Of Leverage

Booms, Bonanzas And The iShock

July 2, 2026July 5, 2026

Early last month, I spent a few minutes editorializing around the historical relationship between capex

Read More

2 Comments on Booms, Bonanzas And The iShock

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

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  • dayjob on Megaspeed Indeed. (Two Huangs Don’t Make A Right)
  • dayjob on The Dark Side Of Liquidity: The Genealogy Of The AI Arms Race

Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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