They don’t love it.
“They” are US households, which is to say American voters.
“It” is the US economy or, more accurately, US economic conditions.
Consumer confidence faltered this month, the Conference Board said Tuesday, in a release that was uninspired on a generous interpretation.
The headline, 90.8 for July, missed estimates. Consensus expected a slight improvement from June’s upwardly-revised 92.2 readout.
As the figure reminds you, we’re hanging on for dear life here — trying to avoid slipping back to the post-pandemic lows. As Conference Board chief economist Dana Peterson put it, the headline’s been on “a general downward sloping trajectory since late 2021.”
Not surprisingly in light of ongoing concerns about the durability on “peace” in the Mideast, the Present Situation index dropped to 114.9, well below estimates and the worst since February of 2021.
Although the Expectations gauge was unchanged at a one-year high, “high” is an extremely relative term. 74.7 is still well short of the 80 threshold, readings below which typically presage recessions.
Write-in responses were “mostly pessimistic” again this month, Peterson went on, adding that although the frequency of gas price mentions moderated slightly, such references “remain elevated,” and consumers continued to cite grocery prices as a top concern.
Peterson alluded to the possibility that this month’s readings could ultimately be revised lower with August’s release. “As the fighting [in the Mideast] reaccelerated quite recently, there could be an increase in mentions [of war] in the revised data for July,” she said.
The figure below shows you the share who described jobs as “hard to get” in recent months.
Although that share slipped (i.e., improved) in July, it remains north of 20%. And the share who described jobs as “plentiful” this month fell to 24.6%.
The result: Another decline for the all-important labor differential, which worsened to 3.1, the lowest in more than half a decade. That, with the Labor Department’s initial filers series sitting at the lowest levels since September of 1969. Go figure.
Although inflation expectations improved in the Conference Board release, nearly two-thirds expect interest rates to be higher over the next 12 months. Thankfully, consumers “still expected higher stock prices a year from now,” the accompany color said.
All’s well that ends well as long as the stocks go up.



