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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

‘Constructive Strategic Stability’

May 14, 2026May 15, 2026

“Collision or even clashes.” That’s what’ll happen in the unfortunate event America “mishandles” the Taiwan

Read More

8 Comments on ‘Constructive Strategic Stability’

Kevin Warsh Is In A Pickle Already

May 13, 2026May 15, 2026

Not to rub it in or otherwise belabor the point, but Kevin Warsh can forget

Read More

1 Comment on Kevin Warsh Is In A Pickle Already

War Inflation Triggers Sharp Jump In US Mortgage Rates

May 13, 2026May 14, 2026

Purchase activity in America’s gridlocked US housing market moved up over the last week. Just

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2 Comments on War Inflation Triggers Sharp Jump In US Mortgage Rates

Eyebrows Raised, Singed By Scorching Wholesale Inflation Report

May 13, 2026May 14, 2026

“Can you hear me now?” asked the war. Wholesale inflation ran far faster than expected

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7 Comments on Eyebrows Raised, Singed By Scorching Wholesale Inflation Report

Iran War Is $29 Billion Quagmire As Trump Heads To China

May 13, 2026May 14, 2026

“Mounting supply losses from the Strait of Hormuz are depleting global oil inventories at a

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13 Comments on Iran War Is $29 Billion Quagmire As Trump Heads To China

Don’t Tread On My Buybacks

May 12, 2026May 13, 2026

Anyone tired of the capex boom discussion and the associated debate about the read-across of

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7 Comments on Don’t Tread On My Buybacks

Who Feels Bad For Kevin Warsh?

May 12, 2026May 13, 2026

I’d say I feel sorry for Kevin Warsh, except that I don’t. After all, he

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1 Comment on Who Feels Bad For Kevin Warsh?

Convoluted US Inflation Report Won’t Answer Any Questions

May 12, 2026May 13, 2026

Uh-oh? Core inflation in the US ran faster than expected last month, the BLS said

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1 Comment on Convoluted US Inflation Report Won’t Answer Any Questions

Is The UK Ungovernable?

May 12, 2026May 13, 2026

It’s back to chaos in the UK. Five days on from a very tough round

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10 Comments on Is The UK Ungovernable?

Melt-Up Blueprint

May 11, 2026May 12, 2026

The US-Iran ceasefire’s fighting for its life. “After reading that piece of garbage they sent

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5 Comments on Melt-Up Blueprint

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

I / The void   “All I do is keep on running in my own

Read More

12 Comments on Escape Artists

Home-Buying Season In America Off To Slow Start

May 11, 2026May 12, 2026

Existing home sales in America managed only the smallest of advances in April, the first

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2 Comments on Home-Buying Season In America Off To Slow Start

Proposals, Counterproposals And More Threats

May 11, 2026May 12, 2026

“Reasonable and generous.” That’s Iran’s counter-proposal to Donald Trump’s terms for ending the war. The

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3 Comments on Proposals, Counterproposals And More Threats

‘Matter Of When’: Core CPI, Real Spending On Borrowed Time

May 10, 2026May 12, 2026

It’s inflation week in the US, where the BLS’s headline, all-items price gauge is likely

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7 Comments on ‘Matter Of When’: Core CPI, Real Spending On Borrowed Time

Mission Impossible

May 10, 2026May 11, 2026

A week ago I asked if market participants should take Kevin Warsh at his word

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16 Comments on Mission Impossible

Weekly: Is The Stock Rally ‘Irrational’?

May 9, 2026May 11, 2026

Six weeks, 17% (intraday low-to-high) on the S&P and 11 new records later (“These go

Read More

10 Comments on Weekly: Is The Stock Rally ‘Irrational’?

ChatGPT Sparks Second Bay Area Luxury Boom

May 8, 2026May 8, 2026

AI’s beginning to have a significant effect on tech-sector employment. Tech firms announced more than

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Leave a Comment on ChatGPT Sparks Second Bay Area Luxury Boom

The Madness Of Melt-Ups

May 8, 2026May 11, 2026

US equities hit new records on payrolls Friday, scoring a sixth consecutive weekly gain in

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9 Comments on The Madness Of Melt-Ups

Trump Beats His Own Dubious ‘Vibecession’ Record

May 8, 2026May 10, 2026

A US recession’s nowhere in sight, or at least not according to government and private-sector

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1 Comment on Trump Beats His Own Dubious ‘Vibecession’ Record

US Jobs Report Doubles Up Consensus

May 8, 2026May 10, 2026

Headline US hiring slowed last month from March’s brisk pace, but nevertheless managed to double

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7 Comments on US Jobs Report Doubles Up Consensus

Once Upon A Saturday

May 7, 2026May 9, 2026

Once upon a Saturday morning in 2015, I blinked bleary-eyed at a blank blog post.

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12 Comments on Once Upon A Saturday

Alternative US Jobs Report Lukewarm, Claims Still Rock-Bottom

May 7, 2026

The US economy added around 66,400 jobs in April, according to an alternative measure of

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2 Comments on Alternative US Jobs Report Lukewarm, Claims Still Rock-Bottom

AI’s Taking A Bigger And Bigger Bite Out Of Payrolls

May 7, 2026May 8, 2026

The message from Thursday’s monthly update on US job cuts was unequivocal: AI’s impacting tech-company

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4 Comments on AI’s Taking A Bigger And Bigger Bite Out Of Payrolls

Soaring Semis, Raging Bull

May 7, 2026May 8, 2026

Just a few days ago, on April 27, I called the semi-fueled rally in South

Read More

5 Comments on Soaring Semis, Raging Bull

The Costly Search For Comeuppance

May 6, 2026May 8, 2026

I’ll take it. I suggest you think along the same lines, or at least if

Read More

27 Comments on The Costly Search For Comeuppance

Art Of The Nuclear MOU

May 6, 2026May 7, 2026

How many times did I say, over the past, let’s call it five weeks, that

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13 Comments on Art Of The Nuclear MOU

Unfazed By War, US Private Sector Adds Most Jobs Of ‘Trump 2.0’

May 6, 2026May 7, 2026

Private-sector hiring in the US was the strongest last month since January of 2025, ADP

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4 Comments on Unfazed By War, US Private Sector Adds Most Jobs Of ‘Trump 2.0’

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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