“TDS” is a real disorder, even if expanding the initialism suggests the “disease” detectives who first discovered it were afflicted with a juvenile sense of petulant humor.
As someone who was both wrongly diagnosed (by netizens) with TDS and suffering from actual, if mild, psychological afflictions (according to psychiatrists), I used to chafe at the mere mention of so-called “Trump Derangement Syndrome.”
Now, in Trump’s second political coming, I believe it’s a genuine behavioral phenomenon, but I’d define it in a more nuanced way than what you’d hear from right-wing echo chambers. I mentioned this in a comment recently, and I wanted to surface it in an article because I think it’s important. And unfortunate.
All around the world, and particularly in America, people define themselves almost strictly in relational terms to Trump. As if that’s all we are anymore: Coordinates on a plane where the quadrants represent affinity or disdain for his policies, foreign and domestic.
This isn’t confined to everyday people. It’s damn near everyone, including the “other” most powerful people on Earth, who increasingly (and I’m sure begrudgingly) find even their otherwise distinctive identities likewise flattened.
Xi Jinping’s a lot of things, but since the onset of the first trade war in 2018, he’s been an economic relation to Trump’s tariffs. Vladimir Putin’s one of the most consequential figures to live in the post-War era, but since 2016, he’s a political relation to his own (alleged) Manchurian Candidate. And on and on.
This is so acute by now that one of this platform’s longest-running readers — someone who commented frequently enough that the rest of you would recognize his screen name — disavowed me late last month because he deemed my Iran war coverage insufficiently critical of Trump, despite my (demonstrably and consistently) abrasive tone vis-à-vis this administration’s foreign policy.
This is beyond unhealthy. It’s existential. You, me and certainly Xi, are more than our relation to Trump who, let’s not forget, was a D-lister on estimable days as recently as 12 years ago.
I say all of that to — well, it’s social commentary first and foremost. More pointedly, it’s an admonishment. I won’t insult your intelligence by claiming otherwise. But it’s also (highly) relevant for investing.
On Friday morning, US equities pressed higher still after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz completely open to commercial traffic in light of a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.
Assuming Friday’s opening gains held, April 17 would mark 43 all-time record highs for the S&P 500 since the benchmark recouped the “Liberation Day” selloff in late June.
We all know this could go south with one “Truth.” I used to wait until Friday afternoon, or even Saturday morning, to publish the Weeklies because I worried Trump might upend the narrative entirely, rendering whatever I’d written stale in the process. But there’s no escaping that.
Suffice to say the caveat that says, “This could be incongruous with Trump’s next social media post” always applies. For editorial purposes — or for any other purpose now that you mention it — there’s no way to mitigate his capriciousness. And no use trying.
The point here is just that the world’s ended at least twice during his second term — once in and around “Liberation Day” and then again last month — but then it un-ended. And stocks didn’t just trade to new highs by and by, they did so in fairly short order.
Just like last spring and summer, I’m hearing the same excuses from people who got it wrong. Those excuses go something like this, “Well actually, this ‘stable genius’ of ours did inflict irreparable harm, and his insane policies will eventually cause an irrecoverable market calamity. We’re juggling fire!”
I don’t disagree with the sentiment. Remember “Are You Serious?” published here exactly a month after Trump was reelected? That was a short critique of the neoliberal consensus’s failures, and it ended with this line: “Just because a lot of the serious people turned out to be unserious in many respects, leading to a string of policy mistakes and disasters, doesn’t automatically bestow legitimacy upon self-evidently unserious people.”
Trump’s one of those “self-evidently unserious people,” and I’ve repeatedly warned that to let him rewrite the rules (all of them, domestically and abroad) with no checks and no supervision is to chance disaster.
So I get it. Really I do. But what I won’t (can’t) do is pretend sundry worst cases have played out as a result of his decisions when they simply haven’t.
It’s not just stocks. Have a look at the figure below, which I’ve updated for 2026.
That chart shows the relative performance of US Treasurys to developed market sovereign debt excluding USTs.
When Trump announced his infamous “reciprocal” tariffs, US Treasurys underperformed dramatically. That was the “sell America” trade. “Was,” past tense.
Treasurys paired their underperformance over the ensuing seven months and although the Greenland drama rekindled the trade, you’ll note that Treasurys have actually outperformed during the war, in the process round-tripping the entirety of their “Liberation Day” underperformance.
And yet, one of this week’s narratives says new threats to NATO and curtailed petrodollar recycling’s going to leave a sponsorship gap for debt issued by Trump’s profligate, unreliable, belligerent, imperialist America.
Here again, I don’t necessarily disagree. But what “should” happen isn’t always (or even usually) what does happen. Trump’s threatened (implicitly, explicitly and everything in-between) to leave NATO (or at least leave it in the lurch) how many times since 2017? I’ve lost count.
And how many times over the last two decades has someone suggested the petrodollar’s demise is imminent? A lot. A lot of times, and I was personally responsible for penning at least two dozen such articles in another incarnation during 2015 and early 2016. I know that story inside and out. (“Of course I can remember the words, Ike, I wrote it!” for the music industry biopic fans among you.)
“Putting 30s in the context of reflecting longer-term inflation angst linked to the run-up in oil prices, it is somewhat surprising that nominal yields were unable to breach the 5.00% level,” BMO’s Ian Lyngen remarked on Friday, of the US long-end. “Assuming peak oil prices are in for the war, it is difficult to see long bond yields mounting another attempt to push into five-handle territory.”
A few hours later, oil plunged 12% on the Strait news. And 10-year US yields slipped below 4.25%. A sub-4.25% close would be the first in a month.
Now go forth this weekend and act like something other than a point on the Trumpian plane.
What if?
What is
Simple
I think
What if, what is.
And you, mr H, do that so well.
Whoa whoa whoa, I thought this was a proper cult? People aren’t allowed to disavow our leader!
Personally, I’ve come back around to physically laughing at the absurdity of comments like “the Pope is weak on crime” and seeing Trump talking to children about war with the Easter bunny standing at his side.
I would not confuse trump’s triumphs with smart, more like lucky. Second and third order effects still to come.
Where did I use the word “smart”?
Combine minimal device activity with avoiding the plane of TES or TDS, and you will have yourself a proper weekend. H, forgive me if I take your advice a little further and don’t read anything until Monday! Have a good weekend everyone!
H for president
TDS is on the way out when it comes to the US main street media. In true Orban fashion allies of DJT have taken the helm at a number of widely viewed/read news purveyors.
1) I’m thinking of CBS which Bari Weiss is trying to push their editorial policies to the right of Newsmax except when it comes to Israel where she is a Bibi cheerleader.
2) Then I noticed last Sunday that CNN’s Smerconish trying to argue that our attack on Iran only was launched after serious cabinet deliberations. Based on a failing NY Times article suggesting such a meeting did occur. Yep, I guess he is hoping to avoid being swept out once the new owners step in as well.
Outside of his harebrained stuff like poking allies in the eyeballs or acting in exact opposite to his rhetoric, I think what really sets people into a tizzy is just how dangerous Trump has been for American democracy. Even the Patriot Act, Cointelpro or McCarthyism all seem to pale in comparison. So, for me at least, it’s been tough to ascribe anything to Trump that might even be deserved, though I’ve also pointed out to people that some of their worries are unfounded. I, for one, don’t think Trump will ‘ruin’ the economy, I think the US economy is just too big and too deep for Trump to add benefit or detract from it overall. I appreciate the sobriety that you bring to this topic.
I won’t be able to figure out who’s missing now from the comments, but I guess it really shows the power that someone like Trump can have over the world when a regular Heisenberg Report reader bows out over him. Que sera, sera.
I’m planting potatoes and tending to the earth.
Herodotus tells the story of the wealthy king Croesus and the Athenian wise man Solon. I won’t repeat it here, but the punch line is not to say that anyone is happy until after they’ve died, because up until then anything can happen to change their lot in life.
I have a similar view of Trump. As much as I loathe him, his methods, and any number of other aspects of his existence, I am not willing to make judgements on a lot of what he does because it’s not clear yet what the long-term effects will be.
Dwight Eisenhower allegedly said something along the lines of, “The real test of the occupation would be whether Germany, in the long run, became a peaceful, democratic, and economically stable member of Europe.” Something like that.
Who knows how people might look at Trump over the long run? Some times you need to break things in order to fix them, and Lord knows Trump is breaking a number of things that need fixing.
That said, I most emphatically do not have any such ambivalence about his attacks on American democracy. I think that’s what we all need to be focused on right now.
TDS doesn’t define me – it simply describes the current occupant of the Oval Office (and various golden commodes). The man is deranged (“no brag, just fact”)!
As usual, I agree with almost everything you write. I freely admit I’m one of the people who gets accused of having TDS because I’m not able to see any redeeming qualities in the man. But there’s another side to the TDS because this ‘disease’ didn’t just pop up out of nowhere, it was cultivated in a lab. The stated goal of most MAGA acolytes is to piss off liberals because they truly hate half of the people in America. As evidence I offer up the post my own MAGA loving brother posted to facebook last night, AI generated and showing a smiling redneck with a MAGA hat sipping a coffee and the line “As long as Trump is pissing you off…I’m happy!”.
I see it all the time with my MAGA friends. They don’t say these things to my face, but I see in their social media posts more than just disdain, but a real hatred of people who would rather watch CNN than FOX News.
Very insightful. I will support your bonafides in opposing the disease of Trump.
Personally I think TDS is a very real phenomena. However not as right wingers posit. The Trumpers are engaged in one aspect of TDS. As you point out here everyone is affected by this syndrome even if we are not supportive of the phenomenom of Trump. It is a multi-faceted affliction one which many exploit, from different viewpoints of comparison.
I wonder what returns us to sanity. Sanity being defined as paying attention to ones self and our internal needs, or the needs of humanity in general? I do not see the path. I see a great potential for another to fill the shoes of this carnival barker. What I see is that the longer he remains in power people grow to become more of what is not defined by him. Alsmost as if we as humans need to experience this every now and again to remind us of our humanity. I think in the vein of you article, rare indeed it is a person who is not affected by this phenomenon.
Enlightenment is the best revenge
If Trump is the origin and we are all points on a plane, then what happens when the origin disappears?
Have mathematicians considered that?
Because those cankles aren’t getting any smaller. And those bruises on the hands aren’t clearing up. And that fronto-temporal dementia, is not lessening. And those full diapers, aren’t getting any fresher.
Truly surprised he has lasted this long. It is the power of the dark side.