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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Peace Over ‘Freedom’

May 6, 2026May 7, 2026

Just 50 cents to go. 50 more cents and Donald Trump will beat Joe Biden’s

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6 Comments on Peace Over ‘Freedom’

Chips Ahoy!

May 5, 2026May 6, 2026

It was with more than a little sheepishness that I recently admitted to selling the

Read More

17 Comments on Chips Ahoy!

US Hiring Soars Most In 25 Years. Allegedly.

May 5, 2026May 6, 2026

An otherwise forgettable BLS update on job openings in the US showed a big uptick

Read More

3 Comments on US Hiring Soars Most In 25 Years. Allegedly.

Price Pressure Is Never-Ending Blight For US Service Providers

May 5, 2026May 6, 2026

Well, that’s convenient. The marquee gauge of business activity across the biggest part of the

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‘A New Equation Of The Strait’

May 5, 2026May 6, 2026

Bagher Ghalibaf, or whoever’s assigned to write his social media messages this week, said Tuesday

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3 Comments on ‘A New Equation Of The Strait’

Is It Still A Ceasefire If Everyone’s Shooting?

May 4, 2026May 5, 2026

Is it still a ceasefire if everybody’s shooting again? That seems like a fair question

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5 Comments on Is It Still A Ceasefire If Everyone’s Shooting?

Trump Escorts

May 4, 2026May 5, 2026

Reluctant. That’s me when it comes to commenting on the current state of the stalemate

Read More

8 Comments on Trump Escorts

Behind The Scenes Of A Blockbuster Earnings Season

May 4, 2026May 5, 2026

Expectations were lofty. Headed into reporting season in the US, consensus anticipated aggregate S&P 500

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Buyback Slowdown Is ‘Cost Of Staying Relevant’ In AI Race

May 4, 2026May 5, 2026

The good news is, quarterly results from corporate America have been “exceptionally strong” this reporting

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2 Comments on Buyback Slowdown Is ‘Cost Of Staying Relevant’ In AI Race

War Jobs

May 3, 2026May 4, 2026

It’s jobs week in America, where employers probably added more than 60,000 positions on net

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4 Comments on War Jobs

Should We Really Take Kevin Warsh At His Word?

May 3, 2026May 4, 2026

“He testified very strongly to that effect, and I’ll take him at his word.” So

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16 Comments on Should We Really Take Kevin Warsh At His Word?

Two Things, Three Charts

May 2, 2026May 4, 2026

When we channel James Carville to declare “It’s the economy, stupid,” what we’re really saying

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6 Comments on Two Things, Three Charts

Greg Abel Has $400 Billion

May 2, 2026May 4, 2026

I’m won’t lie: I stopped caring about Berkshire when Warren Buffett said he’s passing the

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5 Comments on Greg Abel Has $400 Billion

Weekly: Higher Learning

May 1, 2026May 3, 2026

What have we learned over the past week or two or four? For one thing,

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9 Comments on Weekly: Higher Learning

Factory Price Index Continues Skyward On Energy Crisis

May 1, 2026May 2, 2026

US manufacturing activity spent a fourth consecutive month in expansion territory, helped along by an

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The Yen Has An Oil Problem

May 1, 2026May 3, 2026

“Who knows better about surprise than Japan?” Donald Trump joked, while hosting his “friend” Sanae

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3 Comments on The Yen Has An Oil Problem

All Hail ‘The New 60/40’

April 30, 2026May 2, 2026

It’s all about “the new 60/40.” A few days ago, I cited Nomura’s Charlie McElligott

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1 Comment on All Hail ‘The New 60/40’

Apple Beats, Raises Dividend, Boosts Buybacks

April 30, 2026May 1, 2026

Apple beat on both the top and bottom lines in its first earnings report since

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4 Comments on Apple Beats, Raises Dividend, Boosts Buybacks

‘Labor Crisis’? Someone Forgot To Tell Jobless Claims

April 30, 2026

So, US jobless claims. I’d be remiss not to mention them this week. This series

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US Consumer Resilient, AI Spending Robust, GDP Release Shows

April 30, 2026May 1, 2026

The US economy rebounded in Q1 following a slowdown associated with the prior quarter’s government

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2 Comments on US Consumer Resilient, AI Spending Robust, GDP Release Shows

Iran War Puts BoE, ECB Back On The Hot Seat

April 30, 2026May 1, 2026

Both the ECB and the BoE held rates steady Thursday, as expected, with policymakers at

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Back To Bombs?

April 30, 2026April 30, 2026

It might be time for the US to resume major combat operations in Iran, Donald

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10 Comments on Back To Bombs?

Powell To Stay On Fed Board Indefinitely In Rebuke To Trump

April 29, 2026April 30, 2026

Must-watch television. Jerome Powell on Wednesday hosted his final press conference as Fed chair following

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5 Comments on Powell To Stay On Fed Board Indefinitely In Rebuke To Trump

$12 Trillion In Market Cap Just Reported…

April 29, 2026April 30, 2026

Nearly $12 trillion in market cap reported earnings in the space of just a couple

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2 Comments on $12 Trillion In Market Cap Just Reported…

Powell Era Ends With Subtly Intriguing Fed Statement

April 29, 2026April 30, 2026

The Fed kept rates on hold Wednesday, as expected, amid ongoing uncertainty around the war

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1 Comment on Powell Era Ends With Subtly Intriguing Fed Statement

US Business Investment, Residential Construction Soar

April 29, 2026April 30, 2026

Macro watchers were treated to a double dose of upbeat reports on the state of

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5 Comments on US Business Investment, Residential Construction Soar

Trump Bets Iran’s Generals Will Fold Under ‘Extended Blockade’

April 29, 2026April 30, 2026

“The newly-minted supreme leader has followed along, rarely if ever objecting to the generals.” Such

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17 Comments on Trump Bets Iran’s Generals Will Fold Under ‘Extended Blockade’

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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