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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Real US Housing Wealth Contracts Ninth Month

April 28, 2026

Annual US home price growth slipped below 1% and prices are falling in more than

Read More

Leave a Comment on Real US Housing Wealth Contracts Ninth Month

The UAE Finally Goes Its Own Way

April 28, 2026April 29, 2026

The first thing to know or, more aptly, to recall, is that The United Arab

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8 Comments on The UAE Finally Goes Its Own Way

Smile. It’s Just A War.

April 28, 2026April 29, 2026

Somewhat surprisingly, the US consumer mood held up in April despite what Conference Board chief

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2 Comments on Smile. It’s Just A War.

Is OpenAI’s Reported Sales Miss A Canary?

April 28, 2026April 29, 2026

Nobody panic. It’s not as if the accuracy of Sam Altman’s back-of-the-envelope revenue projections is

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15 Comments on Is OpenAI’s Reported Sales Miss A Canary?

Temperature Rises In Unsustainable US-Iran Stalemate

April 28, 2026April 29, 2026

Donald Trump’s not enamored with the idea of postponing negotiations around Iran’s nuclear program as

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21 Comments on Temperature Rises In Unsustainable US-Iran Stalemate

Semi ‘Mania’ Triggers Familiar Warnings

April 27, 2026April 28, 2026

A corollary of the wild surge in semiconductor stocks is an equally enthusiastic bull market

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9 Comments on Semi ‘Mania’ Triggers Familiar Warnings

‘The New Oil’

April 27, 2026April 28, 2026

Semis are the “new oil.” That’s according to a PM who spoke last week to

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3 Comments on ‘The New Oil’

Who Has The Cards?

April 27, 2026April 28, 2026

Iran’s prepared to stop impeding maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. If the US

Read More

24 Comments on Who Has The Cards?

The Melt-Up, The Ugly Truth And The New 60/40

April 26, 2026April 28, 2026

Did you miss the equity melt-up? And are you worried that getting in now is

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9 Comments on The Melt-Up, The Ugly Truth And The New 60/40

Data Deluge Meets Tech Earnings, FOMC In Blockbuster Week

April 26, 2026April 27, 2026

This has the potential to be a lively week on the macro-market front, even without

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2 Comments on Data Deluge Meets Tech Earnings, FOMC In Blockbuster Week

What To Expect From Powell’s Fed Chair Swan Song

April 26, 2026April 27, 2026

This week may be the last time we hear from Jerome Powell as Chair of

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1 Comment on What To Expect From Powell’s Fed Chair Swan Song

Weekly: Semi-Automatic

April 25, 2026April 27, 2026

The last time the SOX rose 40% in a month, Bill Clinton was president and

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7 Comments on Weekly: Semi-Automatic

‘Labor Crisis’ Warnings Rekindled By Tech Job Cuts

April 24, 2026April 26, 2026

You wouldn’t necessarily know it to look at the headline hiring numbers — although payroll

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2 Comments on ‘Labor Crisis’ Warnings Rekindled By Tech Job Cuts

Pirro Gives Up Powell Probe To Clear Warsh Confirmation

April 24, 2026April 26, 2026

Don’t beat yourself up, Jeanine. You tried. On Friday, a plainly peeved Jeanine Pirro announced

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6 Comments on Pirro Gives Up Powell Probe To Clear Warsh Confirmation

Strait Worries Intensify As US-Iran Stalemate Drags On

April 24, 2026April 26, 2026

Abbas Araghchi was expected in Islamabad on Friday evening for weekend negotiations brokered by Pakistani

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11 Comments on Strait Worries Intensify As US-Iran Stalemate Drags On

Cash On The Barrel

April 24, 2026April 25, 2026

It’s still early (sort of), but 2026 is shaping up to be a helluva year

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1 Comment on Cash On The Barrel

Spoiler Alert

April 23, 2026April 24, 2026

Donald Trump threatened to kill some people on Thursday, both implicitly and explicitly. First, he

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5 Comments on Spoiler Alert

Dollar Doomsday 2026?

April 23, 2026April 24, 2026

The dollar doomsday narrative’s not difficult to write. After years of practice, it’s an exercise

Read More

3 Comments on Dollar Doomsday 2026?

The World’s Always Ending Somewhere

April 23, 2026April 24, 2026

Equities have decided the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t need to be open. Or, more precisely,

Read More

20 Comments on The World’s Always Ending Somewhere

Wealth Effect? Check. Jobs? Check — For Now

April 22, 2026April 24, 2026

The wealth effect for the rich, jobs for everyone else. If you think that’s the

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15 Comments on Wealth Effect? Check. Jobs? Check — For Now

‘On Top Of All That’: US Housing In Limbo

April 22, 2026April 23, 2026

There was more incrementally good news on the US housing front Wednesday. On the heels

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5 Comments on ‘On Top Of All That’: US Housing In Limbo

The Big Question: What Is Iran Now?

April 22, 2026April 23, 2026

Donald Trump “expect[ed] to be bombing” Iran on Wednedsay. That’s what he told CNBC yesterday,

Read More

15 Comments on The Big Question: What Is Iran Now?

Rudderless Iran Forces Trump To Extend Ceasefire

April 21, 2026April 23, 2026

Having lost every first-stringer and more or less every second-tier player too, the regime in

Read More

10 Comments on Rudderless Iran Forces Trump To Extend Ceasefire

Warsh Makes His Case: ‘I’m Not A Sock Puppet’

April 21, 2026April 22, 2026

Kevin Warsh is no one’s “sock puppet.” That’s according to the man himself, who on

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4 Comments on Warsh Makes His Case: ‘I’m Not A Sock Puppet’

US Pending Home Sales Accidentally Rise

April 21, 2026April 22, 2026

Somewhat surprisingly, contract signings for existing US homes managed a gain in March, according to

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13 Comments on US Pending Home Sales Accidentally Rise

Record Surge In Gas Receipts Fails To Deter US Shoppers

April 21, 2026April 22, 2026

Nominal spending across the world’s largest economy expanded at the briskest pace in more than

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8 Comments on Record Surge In Gas Receipts Fails To Deter US Shoppers

On Taiwan’s Breathtaking Order Boom

April 21, 2026April 21, 2026

If you’re curious as to the state of demand for AI hardware, Taiwan’s Ministry of

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1 Comment on On Taiwan’s Breathtaking Order Boom

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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