Day After Planning

“We have dealt ten plagues upon the Axis of Evil,” Benjamin Netanyahu declared, addressing the Israeli public in a Passover eve speech that doubled as a victory proclamation.

“We have achieved immense, enormous accomplishments” and while Iran retains “residual capability to threaten” Israel, “they can no longer threaten our existence,” Netanyahu said.

That’s an important shift in Netanyahu’s rhetoric. You’d be remiss to gloss over it. As far as I’m aware, this marks the first time Netanyahu described Tehran as something less than an existential threat.

By no means does that suggest the IDF’s prepared to end the war, certainly not in Lebanon, where Israel’s plainly intent on a prolonged occupation.

But it does indicate Netanyahu’s trying to get onside with Donald Trump, who on Tuesday afternoon gave the clearest indication yet that the US will wind up major combat operations against Iran mid-month. Trump was widely expected to formalize that timetable during a prime time address to Americans on Wednesday.

To be sure, the projectiles are still flying — Iran took pot shots at Israel and Kuwait, shrapnel from an intercepted Shahed killed a Bangladeshi national in the UAE and an Iranian cruise missile hit an oil tanker in Qatar — but the writing’s on the wall. Trump’s going to leave well enough alone, cross his fingers and hope for the best.

As for the Strait of Hormuz, Downing Street responded to Trump’s Tuesday criticism. “This is not our war [and] we will not be drawn into the conflict,” Keir Starmer said Wednesday, in a speech reiterating a five-point plan to stave off a domestic energy crisis.

Starmer used the address to announce a 35-nation meeting aimed at “assess[ing] all viable diplomatic and political measures to restore freedom of navigation.” The UK, he suggested, will spearhead an international effort to “guarantee the safety of trapped ships and resume the movement of vital commodities.”

Even as he was careful to emphasize that the UK won’t be a party to the war, Starmer conceded that the very nature of the challenge calls for consultation with “military planners to look at how we can marshal our capabilities.” After all, he said, “the primary” issue shippers face is “not one of insurance, but one of safety.” That, in turn, demands a holistic approach — a “united front of military strength and diplomatic activity,” as he put it.

Starmer’s remarks came a day after Trump singled out the UK for what he described as cowardice. Later Tuesday, Trump said he was “disappointed in NATO” and Marco Rubio hinted at withdrawing from the alliance.

“The president and our country will have to reexamine [NATO] after this operation is over,” Rubio told Al Jazeera. “If NATO is just about us defending Europe, but [they] deny us basing rights when we need them, that’s not a very good arrangement.”

Such threats are nothing new from Trump, but coming from America’s top diplomat — and a man who’s at least nominally sane — the warning was jarring. NATO might respond by saying Trump doesn’t do himself any favors by threatening to seize territory from alliance members (occupying Greenland would arguably trigger the very mutual defense clause Trump’s so wary of). I assume Mark Rutte, Trump whisperer, will smooth this over.

In an interview with The Telegraph, Trump reminded the world that he’s never been enamored with NATO. “I always knew they were a paper tiger,” he said, referring to the alliance as if he’s already abandoned it. “Putin knows that too, by the way.”

Meanwhile, Jamie Dimon weighed in on the war for the second time in a week. “It’s much more important that this be successfully completed, than what the market does,” he said, effectively arguing for a more thoroughgoing definition of regime change than Trump’s modified interpretation of the term.

“We’ve got to finish this thing,” Dimon insisted, on Fox & Friends. “And we’ve got to finish it right.”

Spoken like a man with a lot of royal friends.


 

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11 thoughts on “Day After Planning

  1. In the past few days, I read something that Warren Buffett said, which truly captured my sentiment: “I don’t think you should have a cynical government”.
    Well said, Warren – still going strong at 95 🙂

  2. Isn’t this NATO threat a non-starter anyway? Section 1250A was passed in 2023 and prevents the President from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO. Can’t imagine 67 Senators voting for it.

    1. I don’t think Trump can get a Senate vote to leave the NATO treaty, and I doubt the Supreme Court will let him. But he can cut off weapons to Ukraine, pull forces from Europe, refuse to pay the US’ share of NATO’s bills, and do all the other stuff a friend-of-Putin might do. This will pit him against the US military in an interesting way and at an interesting time.

    2. “non-starter” is not a thing with Trump. He is all about “starter”. His MO since before the Apprentice has been to act first, clean up later (or sue later, or declare insolvency later, or whatever, later). Trump 45 had some adults in the room slowing him down, Trump 47 has no adults even in the hallway, let alone in the room. So he demolishes White House gardens and wings, blows up civilian ships, invades foreign countries, ignores laws and traditions left and right to get what he (or his donors, or his lackeys, or Bibi or Putin) wants. Got a problem with that? Sue him in the courts. There is no such thing as a “non-starter” for this administration.

  3. “Axis of evil” – interesting framing by Bibi. I recently read Ezra Klein’s article about missed opportunities for normalized relations with Iran and how W naming Iran as part of the “axis of evil” even after they had offered support after 9/11 derailed any nascent normalization efforts.

    Maybe we just need another 25 years to sort things out.

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