Mission Accomplished?

“That’s so far underground, I don’t care about that.”

So said Donald Trump Wednesday during an interview with Reuters. He was referring to an estimated 440.9kg of near-bomb-grade enriched uranium entombed in a tunnel complex under Isfahan.

If you’re not chuckling wryly at Trump’s flippancy, you should check your pulse. Or see if Amazon’s selling senses of humor, because you’re in desperate need.

Only Trump would refer that dismissively to a stock of fissile material which, if dialed up a little further on the enrichment scale, could produce 10 nuclear weapons.

The casual treatment of pressing questions about Iran’s surviving bomb fuel would be darkly amusing enough on its own. When you consider that one of the stated goals for “Operation Epic Fury” was denying to Iran, once and for all, the capacity to make a nuclear weapon, Trump’s comments are the stuff of satire.

And this is why it’s impossible to satirize Trump. He’s immune to satire precisely because he embodies it. It’s very difficult, bordering on impossible, to conjure fake Trump quotes funnier than real ones. Trump the genuine article is infinitely more absurd than any caricature could hope to be.

Assuming — safely, I think — that Trump’s not creating a diversion for a SEAL raid, his comments about Iran’s enriched uranium underscore my contention that the idea of a commando operation to seize that material isn’t realistic.

Since “Operation Midnight Hammer” last year, I’ve repeatedly suggested that assuming for the SEALs the wherewithal to complete such a mission is to confuse them with super-spies. In other words (and with the caveat that I only have access to public information): That idea’s a James Bond script, not a JSOC mission.

Trump’s remarks to Reuters Wednesday came just hours before a scheduled national address announcing the imminent wind down of major US combat operations in Iran.

In all likelihood, the US will wrap it up within three weeks, according to Trump who, as tipped multiple times in these pages in recent days, is celebrating the war as a strategic success — a win.

All of the Pentagon’s objectives were met and in some cases exceeded, Trump reckons. Iran’s missile program is severely degraded, its conventional navy is gone and its proxies’ capacity to sow regional discord diminished.

Trump’s satisfied — or says he is — that Iran can’t realistically build a bomb now. They’re “incapable” of fashioning a nuke, Trump said Wednesday, adding that the US will “always be watching by satellite.”

Relatedly, Benjamin Netanyahu for the first time described Iran as something less than an existential threat. If nothing else, that suggests the IDF will follow the US in dialing down the intensity of direct attacks over the course of April, then revert to the usual “mow the lawn” strategy.

Trump claimed early Wednesday that Masoud Pezeshkian asked for a ceasefire, but said the US would only agree to such a request in the near-term if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened expeditiously.

In an open letter to the American public, Pezeshkian described a “choice between confrontation and engagement.” That choice, he said, “will shape the future for generations to come.”

Meanwhile, Bagher Ghalibaf — who The New York Times correctly described Wednesday as “one of the generals running the war” — delivered more of his signature macro-market sarcasm on social media.

“Out-of-context quotes + manufactured FOMO = War profiteering 101,” Ghalibaf wrote. “Do Your Own Research.” The S&P closed higher for a second session, extending the two-day peace rally to almost 4%.


 

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11 thoughts on “Mission Accomplished?

  1. Congrats H!
    I believe you nailed it (again)!
    While everything you’ve outlined over the past several weeks is playing out…I still worry about the uranium. The fact that it’s not accounted for is still somewhat of a problem..

  2. Twists and turns and pivots, good TV!

    Although Mehdi Hasan had a comment that goes, roughly, if years ago you tried to pitch to Hollywood writers the (real) stories of American politics today, those stories would be rejected outright given how unreasonable/ insensible they are…

    It’s era of 30-second videos and action-packed footages and silly funny memes, not of 500-page books or logically crafted arguments or cleared-eye analysis. Replace the lens, and suddenly it all makes sense.

    Long-term investors just shut it all out and tend to the garden. Tune in only when entertainment intended, with reality TV instead of dramas/movies. AI or the man-child & co. may destroy your index funds along with humanity; or the daily hysteria eventually goes to naught. Either way, at least you will have some flowers.

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