Against the odds, consumer confidence in America improved in March on what the Conference Board will forgive me for calling the second-most important household mood gauge.

University of Michigan Sentiment’s what really counts. You can tell because with the caveat that I don’t have the data to back this claim up, it’s a more tradable release.

Still, Conference Board matters and the headline for March, 91.8, was up from February and better than consensus, which expected a decline given pervasive war angst.

As the figure above reminds you, the index is loitering at very depressed levels. Note that the Conference Board headline was higher when CPI sported a nine-handle.

March’s gain was attributable entirely to a near five-point increase on the Present Situation index. The Expectations gauge fell to 70.9, well below levels which historically presaged a recession, although that rule of thumb ceased to apply post-pandemic.

“While not obvious in the headline or its component indexes, the weight of rising costs due to tariff passthrough and spiking oil prices was evident among other measures in the survey like inflation expectations,” the color accompanying the release said.

The figure above shows you the average of the two main household mood gauges in America. That’s your “vibecession.” It’s ongoing.

Not surprisingly, near-term inflation expectations jumped sharply in the Conference Board survey, to 6.2% from 5.5%. As a consequence, the share who said interest rates will be higher over the next 12 months rose more the 7ppt, while expectations for stock prices deteriorated. The labor differential improved, but only barely.

“Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism,” Dana Peterson said, adding that inflation’s still top of mind for Americans. “As the war in Iran overlapped significantly with the survey sample period, comments about oil/gas and war/conflict spiked, while specific mentions of trade and tariffs decreased.”