Late last month, while documenting the return of Tariff Man, I wrote that “it’s easier, and often more productive, to bully your allies than your adversaries.”
That’s a key part of Donald Trump’s strategy for extracting concessions from America’s trade partners in his second term. “Your enemies,” I went on, in the same July 21 article, “might tell you to go pound sound, particularly if they have leverage, as China does, but your friends will generally try to accommodate you.”
We’ve seen that work for Trump on several occasions, even if “work” just means he succeeded in securing nebulous, non-binding investment commitments from a hodgepodge of US allies in exchange for tariff relief. Never mind that some (all?) of the attendant MOUs carried no legal force and admitted of no definitive timeline for the investment initiatives.
Unlike, say, Japan and South Korea, Canada held the line against Trump, steadfastly refusing to demonstrate the sort of fealty which compels you to, for example, gift America’s would-be strongman a golden crown. Trump’s threats to annex the country backfired badly when Canadians called off (or at least postponed) their own right-wing populist revolution in favor of a Mark Carney premiership.
Carney, who in Davos famously beseeched the world’s so-called “middle powers” to rage, rage against the dying of the neoliberal, multilateral light, has proven a tough nut for Trump to crack. Last month, when Trump threatened new tariffs on Canada in an effort to force a renegotiation of the USMCA on terms more favorable to the US, Carney derided Trump’s threatened duties as “the latest in a series of unilateral US trade actions and threats to Canadian sovereignty,” and pledged that Canadians would stand together “from coast to coast to coast” in opposition.
Fast forward a month and the deadline for the two countries to strike a deal averting Trump’s latest escalation expired after talks fell apart at the last minute. Both sides blamed each other for the eleventh-hour jostling that reportedly torpedoed an agreement.
As a quick reminder, Trump’s using Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930. If you’re unfamiliar, you can review the above-linked article for the details, but suffice to say it’s an untested, Depression-era law that says The White House can tariff imports at rates up to 50% in instances where the president determines countries are discriminating against US commerce specifically.
I doubt seriously that Trump intended for these levies to go into effect, but they did on Saturday and Carney’s now prepping what he previously described as “dollar-for-dollar” retaliatory measures on the US. It’s worth noting that Canada could, but almost surely won’t, curb exports of potash to America or otherwise refuse to acknowledge that Trump’s tariffs largely exempt natural resources.
Importantly, Carney enjoys the support of most Canadians in the tariff fight. Trump can’t say the same of Americans. In fact, a quick check of Trump’s latest polling numbers reveals a veritable disaster.
The figure above shows Trump’s inflation approval rating for every major poll conducted during his second term. The high point (i.e., the best rating) was 48% just after he took office. The low point was a pitiful 19% in mid-May. The latest poll (a Financial Times survey conducted from August 8-11) produced the second-worst single-issue inflation result for Trump, an awful 21%.
Since the onset of the war, Trump’s inflation approval has averaged under 30% and as the trendline in the figure shows, the situation continues to deteriorate. His approval rating on the economy more generally isn’t much better. The RCP average there is just 36.1%.
Indeed, one’s hard-pressed to find any issue Trump’s above water on among the US electorate. His foreign policy approval rating’s 37.7%. On Iran specifically, it’s 34.6%. Hell, Trump’s even underwater on immigration, where his approval’s jut 44%. His overall job approval rating’s a God-awful 39.5%.
It’s fair, I reckon, to suggest that a 50% tariff on Canada isn’t going to help the situation, particularly given that most Americans with even a passing interest in politics are at least vaguely aware that the Supreme Court ruled against Trump’s most sweeping assertion of unilateral tariff authority and that the administration’s now “combing through the entirety of the American legal corpus for end-arounds,” as I put it last month, while editorializing around the latest pressure campaign against Canada.
The dustup with Carney comes at an inopportune time for The White House. Trump’s been forced to abandon the military campaign against Iran in favor of tougher Treasury sanctions, which Scott Bessent’s set to detail in the days ahead. Bessent’s coming off an embarrassing week during which he tried, and failed, to cap long-term US bond yields.
Consumer sentiment remains severely depressed across the US economy, the labor market’s suddenly shedding jobs (according to the BLS) and thanks to the war, inflation’s outstripping wage growth. Household perceptions of their own financial situation have deteriorated dramatically. In the University of Michigan’s polling, the perceived probability of real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) income gains over the next year is just 35%, tied for the lowest in a quarter century.
When Stalin died, the USSR went through a de-Stalinization period where his “cult of personality” was denounced. Mao started the Cultural Revolution in part to keep that from happening to him and his legacy. An estimated 500,000 to 2 million people died during that period. The assertion that “the thoughts of Chairman Mao are always right” was a central tenet of official Chinese state ideology. Trump is probably aware that he is losing his popularity, and I doubt that there is anything he wouldn’t do to protect his power and his legacy. As I ponder the endgame in the US (midterms? impeachment?), I wonder if we will go to a one-party system in the United States before this is all over?
I don’t think Americans have any idea how pissed most Canadians are. It will be a long time, if ever, before I travel to the US. I’m buying a new dishwasher, will it be from the US, f-ck that! All this f-ckery affects people’s lives, causes stress, causes job loss, takes energy away from important issues that people should be concerned about. Are there valid trade issues, yes, I believe there are, let’s sort those out and move on. Fentanyl, forced labour, wtf, those are the reasons you put on these tariffs? Dear Donald and the people who support you, go f-ck yourselves!
I’m with you. I lived in Regina Saskatchewan, played for the Roughriders, back in the Ron Lancaster, George Reed days – great players and people. My Canadian friends feel as you share, I still have several, they visit me any more, I got there. Vancouver this Spring, and a few Rider games. I often pick Canadian products and will focus more and pay the difference while I still have the freedom.
don’t visit me me any more,
Canada is not all unified behind Carney. Alberta wants sovereignty and as a first step, has a vote of independence on the ballot October 19, 2026.
Alberta’s economy is largely oil and cattle. Alberta has the fastest growing population (5M) of Canada (41M).
Wow, where to start. It’s not a vote of independence, it’s a referendum (and will include a bunch of questions) to see if a majority of Albertans want to start the formal process of getting approval to eventually hold a referendum on separation. I didn’t say people support Carney, I said Canadians are pissed. Most Albertans want to remain in Canada, google it, but they’re tired of sending money to Ottawa and getting what they perceive to be little in return. Btw, both my boys work in the oil and gas industry in Alberta, cattle…that’s funny.
FWIW, my good friend, originally from Calgary and a conservative – leaning Florida resident, is completely pro-Carney. Thinks him one of the best and smartest politicians and financial bureaucrats he’s ever seen. And his almost-neighbor Trump an idiot and worse…
I’m with you, I don’t trust any of them but he has turned out to be more pragmatic than I had originally feared.
I thought I read somewhere, “What, me worried?” out of the administration. Since they are going to drop the tariffs on ground beef for 3 months. The plan is still in the napkin stage (Canadian dairy cows?). I think they should’ve done this tariff relief around the 4th of July…of course, the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association are outraged and have called a few senators.
Maybe, Trump and this administration should try to make some Kool-Aid to make some friends in low places.
Wait! I thought foreigners paid tariffs?
The real miracle is that Trump’s approval rating is 39.5%. At this point, his approval rating should be a rounding error. All we need is an economic crash and maybe we can convince another 5% of Republicans of the error of their ways.
I think miracle has positive connotations, the fact that 39.5% actually think this guy is positive , should tell you all you need about how dumb the populace is…
Imagine a bit smarter type , with authoritarian intents ..should be a piece of cake to get the morons to line up behind and wear silly uniforms and long leather boots
No miracle. As long as the president continues to keep the border closed, sweep out dark-skinned immigrants and stop all affirmative action mandates that base of support will remain behind him. No matter what else he does.
Interpretation: 39.5% of the US population is racist AF.
That 30ish% who approve, will continue to approve, long past the entire country being on fire and homeless camps being considered middle class housing. Their opinion shouldn’t even be considered going forward, they have no relationship with reality.
The “true believer” demographic is unmovable.
Re: the comments that Canada won’t curb the export of potash, or acknowledge the exemption of natural resources – as a Canadian, I will say that our country understands the exemption of natural resources is only because the US needs those; so that is no big break for us. Further, given the mood here, whether Canada refuses to export potash is a function of how far Trump will push. It’s up to him, as it is with oil, electricity, critical minerals, water, etc. Canada also understands how vulnerable Trump is now, politically, legally and on and on. It gives us no pleasure to say this, but, Trump may learn more about asymmetric warfare, in the next while, between Iran and Canada, sad to say.
The only person who benefits from this rift is Vladimir Putin. Keep that in mind when you think about your feelings.
Did we ever actually establish that Trump is not a Russian controlled asset on a secret (even if somewhat unwitting) mission to destroy our political system? (Something along the lines of The Manchurian Candidate perhaps?) “No puppet. No puppet. You’re the puppet”. Do you remember that exchange? I hate to delve into the conspiracy theories surrounding Trump — and I don’t think I actually believe any of them myself (or do I?) — but I cannot for the life of me understand what the man’s logical(?) endgame is supposed to be.
Just look at who benefits from the North Korean overtures and the Canada fight. Who benefits?
I think you give him too much credit. There is no long game. Everything he does is always driven by a short term desire and his only negotiating tactic is projecting strength.
The additional reporting this morning in Politico (take with a grain of salt because Politico is the epitome of access journalism) reveals more details. The auto tariff reductions were changed to not include trucks and SUVs (which make up most of the car market) and Lutnick was undermining the steel and aluminum agreements.
Trump will save a fortune on his electric bill by going quietly into the dark!
Would be an interesting social experiment for Canada to begin a systematic, stepwise increasing restriction of oil/gas exports to the U.S. tied to the tariff rates. Would the MAGA base feel entitled to hate the “mostly white” Canadians as much as they do the “Mexican criminals and job stealers?” Would even more increase in fuel prices motivate people to change their political views or cause them to dig in against another “enemy?” Would Trump TACO or double down? Could Canada gin up their anger enough to tolerate the pain of battling a trade war?
Seems the market is especially vulnerable to an increased energy shock right now (currency debasement, etc.)?
Talk about vulnerabilities – the stock market and long end of the curve are two good ones. Given who he is, a lot of folks would want to influence your long end. And, here is the thing, the US has been the biggest benefactor of the the post war financial order, you created, including being the world’s reserve currency
Might that be a great pretext for the president to fulfill his dream of incorporating Canada?
Just look at the predicament you/we are in – would you ever imagined a few years ago that you would speak about your US invading Canada? We aren’t in Kansas anymore. It has gone too far; and I don’t understand why civil society in American stands for it.
Yeah. That’s right. But as to your question, see my reply to dayjob just above.
He demanded, at the last minute, that Canada not enter into trade agreeements with any other country AND that the US not be formally bound by any agreement.
It is no surprise that Carney walked away. It’s the same idiocy as the Iran negotiations. Why anyone thinks this is a good negotiating tactic is beyond me.
You’d almost think the US President is mentally decomposing . . .