Good news: The US private sector added more jobs than expected in March.
That’s according to Wednesday’s ADP headline, which printed an above-consensus 62,000. Economists collectively forecast 40,000.
The prior month’s headline was revised to reflect a 66,000 gain, higher than the original estimate. The juxtaposition with the initial BLS tally for February private hiring is thus even more stark.
Apparently, private US employers added nearly half a million jobs since last summer. (Does that sound right to you?)
I won’t mince words: I have less than no faith in anyone’s guesstimates of aggregate US hiring at this point. In my opinion, all of these figures — i.e., ADP, BLS, Revelio and anybody else’s tally — should be taken with a Warren Buffett-sized serving of salt.
Wednesday’s ADP release suggested the smallest US businesses (those with fewer than 20 employees) added 112,000 jobs in March, the most in over two years. In the post-pandemic context, that’s not an anomalous print but pre-pandemic, it would’ve been a record looking back to 2010.
By sector, hiring was concentrated in construction on the goods side and education and health in services. That’s exactly where you’d expect hiring to be concentrated. From that perspective, at least, Wednesday’s ADP update was intuitive.
“Overall hiring is steady, but job growth continues to favor certain industries, including health care,” Nela Richardson remarked, noting that March’s “solid performance was accompanied by a boost in pay gains for job-changers.”
Again — and not to pound the table, because God knows I couldn’t offer a better estimate — I really don’t think these aggregates are especially useful anymore.
Even if they are, the macro-market narrative’s so mercurial — compelled as it is to track a manic geopolitical environment — that last month might as well be last decade.


