Heads-up: Pre-market so-called “news” or “Truth” is often just a setup for profit-taking. Basically, it’s a reverse indicator. Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long. You know the drill.

Some of the highest quality businesses in the world are trading at extremely cheap prices. Ignore the MSM. One of the most one-sided wars in history that will end well for the US and the world. And we have the potential for a large peace dividend. One of the best times in a long time to buy quality. Ignore the bears.

The first quote’s from Bagher Ghalibaf, former regime second-stringer-turned de facto head of state and acting IRGC commander. He now moonlights as a market blogger, taking to social media to weigh in on cross-asset strategy and intraday price action. (“Somebody get Bagher a Substack!” Finance Twitter joked late Sunday.)

The second quote’s from Bill Ackman, former hedge fund A-lister-turned Team America super-patriot whose ego somehow managed to outgrow the self-importance “rightfully” due someone of Bill’s means and influence, no small feat considering his net worth and network.

Both of those two men are insufferable windbags. I muted Ackman on “X” when the platform expanded the character limit in 2023. Giving Ackman 4,000 characters — to say nothing of 25,000 — is as dangerous in some respects as giving Ghalibaf nuclear weapons. I didn’t want my sanity caught in the blast radius.

But as much as I despise Ackman — and as much I’m entertained by Ghalibaf’s wry wit as it relates to the Trump administration’s jawboning and what some observers suggest is evidence of insider trading in and around Trump’s war messaging — I mostly agree with Bill.

This is, in fact, one of the more one-sided military conflicts in modern history. And while I’m loath to use the “MSM” initialism (it’s not just an initialism; it’s a right-wing dog whistle), I’ll concede the gist of Ackman’s point.

What he’s saying, I think, is that in our zeal to castigate the administration for chancing the sort of tragically misguided adventurism that defined US foreign policy from Vietnam forward, we’re giving the IRGC far too much credit. And assigning low odds to the most likely market outcome which is a negotiated settlement that sees stocks bounce.

The figure above shows the de-rating in the S&P. It’s meaningful.

Is it (the de-rating) enough to discount World War III? Or a permanent closure of the Strait of Hormuz? Well, no, but that’s an exercise in question begging. I don’t think either of those outcomes are on the cards. I think Ackman’s got this generally right.

Setting aside i) caveats about the US economy being “K-shaped,” ii) all associated Potemkin village criticism of late-stage capitalism and iii) concerns around extreme market concentration, corporate America’s fine. Margins are hefty and profit growth’s healthy.

People like Ackman are plainly carrying Trump’s water, and the US labor market’s on shakier footing than it’s been at any time post-pandemic. Further, it’s entirely possible that elevated gas prices will hit discretionary spending and thereby undermine the real growth impulse, at least in the near-term.

That said, looking out 12 months, SPX 7500 seems far more likely than SPX 5500. And 19x on a forward multiple, while no one’s definition of “cheap,” isn’t overtly expensive in the post-pandemic context.