‘China Shock 2.0’ Narrative Gathers Steam As Exports Boom

The Chinese, um, shipped some stuff last month.

More than $410 billion worth, in fact, according to trade figures released by Beijing on Tuesday.

Thanks in part, by no means solely, to soaring costs for semiconductors and other computer parts, exports rose 27% in dollar terms versus the same period a year ago. That was far quicker than analysts expected.

Imports, meanwhile, soared 36%, 12ppt faster than forecast and the briskest pace in five years.

To reiterate: Some of that’s just the price effect. Semi exports more than doubled in value, but slipped slightly in volume terms. The same dynamic’s evident on the imports side. The value of purchases from South Korea and Taiwan surged, reflecting rising costs for chips.

But that’s hardly the whole story. China shipped more than a million cars in June, according to Tuesday’s figures. That’s a milestone. “The increase in China’s vehicle exports over the last 12 months of data is over three million, roughly equal to Germany’s total current exports,” Brad Setser marveled.

That rather remarkable factoid underscores why the Europeans are so concerned about what’s been dubbed “China Shock 2.0,” shorthand for Beijing’s foisting of high-value items on the rest of the world.

With domestic demand stuck in the doldrums, state-subsidized production left the world’s second-largest economy with an overcapacity problem. Rather than throttle down factory output, China simply flooded the globe with “stuff.” This time around, it’s not all plastic toys and lawn chairs.

Beijing’s surplus with Brussels hit a record near $33 billion in June as the trade gap with Berlin more than doubled. China’s overall surplus was $125.6 billion last month.

As the figure shows, Xi Jinping’s likely to notch a $1 trillion trade surplus for the second consecutive year. That’s even as import growth outstrips the pace of export expansion.

Notably, China’s oil imports plunged to levels unseen since Q4 of 2016. Coal imports, by contrast, more than doubled. What does that tell you? A couple of things. First, China’s sparing its factories the input cost increase associated with the war. Second, Beijing’s helping to blunt the overall price impact of the conflict — when the world’s largest buyer of energy steps back, the supply-demand equation’s easier to balance.

Commenting further on Tuesday, Setser said overall export volumes, assuming constant prices from May, likely rose 15% YoY in June. That’s “both crazy and somehow unsurprising,” he said. “The claim that a second China shock is a bit like Big Bird’s imaginary friend gets harder to sustain by the month.”


 

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2 thoughts on “‘China Shock 2.0’ Narrative Gathers Steam As Exports Boom

  1. After attending an international auto show about two years ago, I recall posting here that the Chinese electric vehicles were gorgeous and could easily outdo a Tesla, at a fraction of the cost. If the Chinese were ever allowed to sell electric or hybrid cars in the US, our auto industry would be decimated overnight.

    So did Xi make a deal with Trump to support the US on Iran in exchange for….???. I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

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