It hasn’t always been a smooth ride. In places, this particular rollercoaster was downright harrowing. But if all’s well that ends well, I suppose we should thank Donald Trump.
I’m sure he’d agree. Without even asking what we’re thanking him for.
If 2026’s gains hold for US equities, Trump will become one of only three presidents in American history to preside over four straight annual stock rallies.
Whether that should be a point of pride’s debatable. I mean, obviously you’d rather up than down, all else equal and in almost all circumstances. But rarely has an Oval Office occupant cited stock prices as habitually as Trump when benchmarking and defining their presidential performance.
The table above, from BofA’s Michael Hartnett, shows you the history of annual stock market performance going back to Ulysses Grant.
Only Coolidge, Truman and Reagan managed the feat Trump’s chasing in 2026. The Reagan analogue bodes well looking ahead, but if you think the “Roarin’ 20s” are a better historical “rhyme” for this century’s second decade, you’re terrified.
As Hartnett reminded investors in his latest, the stock market “presidential cycle” tends to find equities underperforming in the first year “as the new administration pushes through unpopular policies and spending cuts,” while year two’s usually the worst for stocks on “peak economic pain.” The third year’s the strongest, again on average, as The White House pivots to stimulus, while year-four returns are typically decent too “as fiscal support continues into the election.”
Although Trump did move forward with audacious policies (e.g., the tariff blitz) and risky geopolitical gambles during years one and two of his second term, he didn’t really cut spending (DOGE aside) and although war-related inflation is indeed causing economic “pain,” overall growth and consumer spending never flagged.
So, if he pivots to more stimulus and the historical year-three and year-four averages hold, Trump could conceivably end up boasting of seven annual stock market gains in eight years as president. And six in a row.
That’s good news for those lucky enough to own stocks, which is to say for those in the top 10% of American households. For everyone else… well, qu’ils mangent de la brioche.
Too much brioche for Trump in that pic
We be a lot better off if he would just stay on the golf course 24/7!
All that said, it validates the idea that the president will eventually back away from policies which threaten the ascent of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. As well as explaining TACO.
It’s no longer “Don’t fight the Fed!” Now it’s “Don’t fight the White House.”
Coolidge was a true free-market capitalist who believed in minimal government intervention. Reagan was also famously anti-regulatory, as is Trump (of course). That usually works well until it doesn’t. George W. was also strongly anti-regulatory, but had very different results (as we all know). I don’t dare predict what will happen with Trump, but if the bottom were to fall out of either private equity or crypto I would not be unduly shocked. I actually bought a batch of U.S. Government “tenners” today (at slightly over 4.5%) just in case.
I am not sure there’s a US President who did less in his time in office than Coolidge. Aaron Ross Sorkin’s book “1929” said, and I’m paraphrasing–he would say no before you even opened your mouth and asked the question.
In his defense, it’s better than actively effing shit up and making things worse.
Corrections and Retractions: I meant to say “private credit,” not “private equity.”