Surprise: Homebuilder sentiment in America remains deeply depressed.
An update on the NAHB’s builder mood gauge released Wednesday found the headline printing a seven-month low.
In addition to missing estimates and just being plain old abysmal, 34 counted as the 24th straight readout below the line separating net optimism from pessimism.
As the figure shows, this bout of deeply-entrenched depression actually dates to the Fed’s belated attempt to beat back inflation. There have only been four headline NAHB prints that exceeded 50 since the summer of 2022.
Just as the tariffs were a blight last year, the war in Iran’s casting a pall on this year’s spring buying season.
“The year started with hopes for housing momentum growth, but risks with respect to the Iran war, energy costs and declines for consumer confidence have slowed the market,” new NAHB chair Bill Owens — Bill builds houses in Ohio — said Wednesday.
Recall that overall consumer sentiment hit a record low in data going back half a century early this month.
It wasn’t all bad news on the housing front. Mortgage rates slipped a second week in the MBA update to “just” 6.42%. That’s a one-month low.
The figure reminds you how dramatic the impact from the war was: Rates rose nearly 50bps in just four weeks, a veritable gut punch for buyers, sellers and agents alike, all of whom were looking forward to spring.
Although the rate decline was good for a bump in refis, purchase apps were stagnant over the week, the MBA said. “Purchase activity remained subdued as potential homebuyers remained hesitant given the current economic uncertainty, which kept purchase applications below last year’s level for the second consecutive week,” Joe Kan remarked.
Commenting on the situation in the NAHB release, association chief economist Robert Dietz cited higher oil prices in noting that nearly two-thirds of builders said their suppliers are raising material costs.


