“I took their ship.”
So said Donald Trump on Monday during a phone interview with Bloomberg. “I got five other ships I’ll take if I have to,” he added.
You don’t want to like him. And, to be clear, I most assuredly don’t. But my goodness: The man’s something else.
As the US business day wore on, sources indicated Iran in fact intends to send a delegation of some kind to Pakistan this week to meet JD Vance, who’ll be in Islamabad with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner on Tuesday or Wednesday.
As discussed at some length here on Monday morning, the prep work in Pakistan for a second peace summit was too extensive to make Iran’s equivocating credible.
Sure, Ahmad Vahidi, the commander-in-chief of the Guards, would probably prefer to boycott the talks in light of the US Navy’s seizure of an Iranian-flagged cargo ship.
But the fact that Pakistan’s powerful army chieftain, Asim Munir, met with Ali Abdollahi, the third member of the military triumvirate running Iran (the other two being Vahidi and Bagher Ghalibaf) last week, strongly nodded to Iran’s participation in another round of talks barring an escalation far worse than what occurred in the Gulf of Oman over the weekend. As Trump put it, “There’s gonna be a meeting.”
For once, I believe him. That’s not to say the Iranians couldn’t (or won’t) balk at the list minute and go to the mattresses, but they know this isn’t a war they can ultimately win in the way that Vahidi probably wants to win it.
On March 29, I said it was time for Trump to take the win, where that meant eschewing the temptation to invade, declaring victory over Iran’s conventional military and cutting a deal with Ghalibaf to reopen the Strait.
Contrary to what you’d be inclined to believe if you read the mainstream media in America, both on the left and the right, the US military accomplished a lot in Iran. If you ask me, the PLA’s probably impressed, not emboldened. There was very little upside for Trump in pressing the issue and uncapped downside if he went the invasion route.
Notwithstanding the genocide shtick, Trump did in fact take the win. He pivoted and US equities bottomed the day after I published the above-linked article.
Now, it’s time for Iran to take the win, where “win” means accept a deal that lets the IRGC continue to run the country. Whatever Trump’s deal doesn’t allow, it does allow for that.
And Jesus Christ, that’s not nothin’ is it? A license to run one of the world’s largest oil producers as a racket with no US demands whatever regarding democratic reforms. Sounds pretty good to me if you’re the IRGC.
As far as Trump’s concerned, the Iranian public had their chance at democracy and they blew it. I don’t agree with that assessment (at all), but that’s surely how he sees it. He’s not demanding any kind of formalized declaration of surrender, he’s not demanding Mojtaba Khamenei be handed over and as far as the nuclear program goes, let’s face it: All Trump wants is words.
Sure, he probably wants that “dust” (as he called Iran’s entombed stockpile of enriched uranium), but for now he’d accept a paraphrased version of Iran’s usual disingenuous contention that it was never seeking a weapon in the first place (certainly not for first-strike purposes). That’s always been their line, why not just reword it to please this White House?
Trump doesn’t have anything like the patience to negotiate a new JCPOA. He’s not going to create a new set of thresholds, restrictions and the like, let alone set up a multilateral system to check compliance. He has the attention span of a child. So treat him like one: Tell him you aren’t after a weapon.
Who cares if it’s true? Not Trump! I doubt there’s ever been a human who cares less about the truth than him. He just wants the headline and the accompanying fanfare.
The regime should walk away with its paramilitary capacity still halfway intact and their autocracy apparently secure. And the Guards should, if anything, be grateful: Now all they have to do is pay lip service to the clergy. No more asking a Sayed if it’s ok to use the bathroom.
The country’s theirs and if they just pretend to bend the knee to Trump, they’ll get sanctions relief and free rein to steal even more money from the Iranian people than they did before. What else could you possibly want? Nothing you can get back at this point, that’s for sure.
Trump is his own biggest self promoter. He seems to demand attention. And praise, and self praise, it never ends.
And you are right about the rest !
Money seems to be the issue. As in they want reparations/tolls/sanctions relief/unfrozen funds
I don’t think money’s the main sticking point. And they’ll get their sanctions relief in a deal.
If Iran wants to claim the lion’s share of their own ten-point peace proposal (at least what we have seen of it), they really need to show they can close-down the Strait of Hormuz and drive oil prices up past say $120 a bbl. for an uncomfortable period of time. Say, long enough for something like a European or Chinese led back-channel of negotiations to develop. The problem for them is — as you pointed out — Trump will likely not endure any delay, as that is tantamount to defeat, and he would likely escalate as soon as this week.
Now, bear with me here, that could actually improve Iran’s position, if they could endure that escalation, and allow Trump to blow-up world markets all on his own. Let’s call that “Trump’s Dilemma.” Another variation is that the two nations continue to play “dueling blockades” until world markets scream, but then again, Trump has no patience for that, and Iran would still have to endure it — and possibly risk renewed internal uprisings as well. What I can’t judge is whether Iran is simply waiting for any face saving deal ASAP, or if they are truly committed to say half of the points on their peace proposal. Iran has to have assurances against further U.S. and Israeli attacks, and the lifting of sanctions. Is there any chance that the IRGC, and the surviving Khamenei, are not exactly in congruence here?
IRGC and Khamenei junior are same thing for the purpose of this subject.
No offense, but what is your proof of that?
There is a 3rd option here, wait for the US to leave and then reinstitute the blockade. They could blame it on the IDF who will most certainly start blowing things up as soon as the US is gone. Then Trump can wash his hands of the whole matter as being “the EU’s problem” and claim we don’t need their oil.
That seems to me to be the smarter long play.
I thought of that, and it too seems to be a part of “Trump’s Dilemma.” For now, the U.S. can’t simply leave and allow Iran to “have” the Strait. Trump needs some sort of face-saving agreement — one that allows both sides to agree to mutually to re-open the straight — or he risks complete blame for whatever happens to oil prices and the economy both here and abroad (even though this may already be the case). On the other hand, Iran can’t just start torching ships in the Strait to make their point, or they risk further U.S./Israeli strikes and the potential loss of any world sympathy or support.
Looking at what’s been proposed, Iran has to have assurances against any further attacks, a lifting of the blockade and economic sanctions, and the release of its frozen assets in order to rebuild. In exchange, they could agree to open the Strait, and to freeze their nuclear aspirations for a very long time. I don’t know if they will ever agree to give up their weaponized uranium, so it might be necessary to have some sort of international presence monitoring and inspecting their nuclear facilities and some other international force policing the Strait of Hormuz.
Seems like Trump is emotionally done with Iran. He will take a bad deal then scream how fantastic it is. Particularly as it compares to the deal Barack Hussein Obama struck. And frankly given that IRGC is a shell for a racket, they are willing to make a deal too. They’re only asking for a higher price.
Now the real question…is any of this good enough for our partner in war? I’m not so sure.
Can you please educate me on how a young man in Iran can join the IRGC? I recall that during the Iran-Iraq war the Revolutionary Guards were instrumental on turning the tide when the US-backed Iraqis appeared to be poised about to go for the jugular. Somehow they were able to recruit thousands of young volunteers to serve as human cannon fodder and succeeded in turning back our dear friend Sadam Hussein’s army.
But that was then. The narrative that the Guards repelled Iraqis probably helped recruiting efforts for a while, but how do they attract new recruits now? Is it like our Mafia or the Chinese triads which started as benevolent societies before “pivoting” into more lucrative activities?
If so, how does a young aspiring Iranian guy gain admittance? By riding motorcycles through crowds of demonstrators and beating them?
Although Trump might not really care about much beyond words re: Iran’s nuclear capabilities and ambitions, Israel certainly does. I have no idea of what Israel’s leverage is with Trump at this point, but I can’t imagine they’ll be inclined to let Trump take the win at what they perceive as their expense.
my guess is that Ghalibaf has wanted to “take the win” for at least a couple weeks now…he just hasn’t unified enough on his side to make it happen…hence we wait…on edge…
Mr. H, you are certainly correct to suggest that Iran can win relatively meaningful gains by pretending nuclear disarmament. However, you are skipping the part that US and Israel can do a lot of pretending and give numerous false hopes as well. If they are attacked or blockaded again; it would be very hard for Iran to close the Strait again especially after mines are cleared and some mechanism of international oversight is established.
There may be many other alternatives, but the most straightforward path to set a very high barrier against being attacked by Israel is to get a bountiful war compensation. I guess it would be very dumb and risk a huge public backlash to attack Iran again if the new IRGC regime received a lot of cash in a very short amount of time. Noone would hand over funds to the enemy they seek to destroy in the near future.
So your argument that IRGC would be wise to take the win and the US-issued license run a top 30 GDP country on Earth is sound on paper but based on very thin ice if they at least do not receive all the frozen funds (which belongs to them anyways) plus some cash inflow mechanism from participating towards safe passages through Hormuz. Turkey for instance, has been collecting substantial “guidance” fees from every tanker passing through the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles straits for almost a century although all commercial ships are “free” to pass with no official toll payment.
I think it will be easier for Iran to close the strait in the future. I imagine once the dust settles they will focus their future military build on what works with exactly this in mind. They may not have a nuclear weapon, but they do know they were able to close the straight this time, and they’ve learned a lot and will refine the process going forward so that they will be able to do it more forcefully and for a very long period of time, if necessary, in the future.
Nobody trusts anybody and unenforceable assurances are worthless except for public pronouncements of victory.
Missing from the discussion is Iran’s Mosquito Fleet – destructive speedboats that easily hide in coastal coves/canyons. Apparently, virtually impossible for conventional military to wipe out, and deadly enough to tankers from transiting (it only takes a few burning hunks to discourage captains, crew, and insurers from the attempt.