Microsoft Beats With Azure, Meta Underwhelms With Sales Guide

Microsoft beat estimates for overall revenue and reported the fastest cloud growth in four years on Wednesday afternoon in the US.

Sales of $90 billion during the company’s fiscal Q4 were ahead of the $87.60 billion consensus expected. Top-line growth of 17.8% was a slight deceleration from the prior quarter’s annual rate, but easily outstripped estimates.

In remarks accompanying the results, Satya Nadella waxed grandiloquent while lauding the company’s efforts to make AI worth it for customers. “We are advancing the frontier on the cost-to-outcome curve,” he said. (Points for ornate expression.)

As the figure shows, Azure growth really is picking up. For the full year, Azure revenue passed $100 billion.

And yet, cloud growth at Alphabet blew away estimates too and it wasn’t enough to save the stock in the face of growing concerns around spiraling capex.

Operating cash flow at Microsoft rose 30% YoY for the quarter, but property and equipment outlays more than doubled. Capex rose 70% to $41 billion, and free cash flow fell 23% as the company “invest[s] against strong demand,” as the deck put it.

Net income of $35.8 billion rose 31% on a GAAP basis and 22% on a non-GAAP basis. Adjusted EPS was $4.74. Amy Hood’s pre-call commentary was characteristically sparse. “We delivered a strong quarter to close out the fiscal year,” she said.

I won’t speculate on how the market will trade the numbers. The cloud growth’s impressive, but the guide will be key and any color Hood provides on 2027 capex will probably carry the day in terms of whether the stock holds up. Or not.

Meanwhile, over at Casa de Zuck, Q2 sales were $60.80 billion, just barely better than the $60.20 billion consensus expected and up 28% YoY.

In the press release, Mark got straight to it. “AI is accelerating our core business today, powering our next generation of products and opening the door to entirely new enterprise opportunities,” he said, in the very first line below the date. “The results,” he went on, “are already showing.”

I guess. But the midpoint of Meta’s current quarter sales guide — $62.5 billion — looked light. Not by a lot, but every hundred million counts and that’s nearly three quarters of a billion below consensus.

As the figure shows, the YoY growth rate tipped by the midpoint of the September quarter top-line guide would be the slowest in five.

In addition, Meta upped the lower-end of its expense guide to account for legal fees recognized last quarter. The company now sees full-year expenses of between $165-169 billion.

As for the capex outlook, Zuckerberg mercifully kept the top-end of the range unchanged, but the company lifted the low-end by $5 billion. Meta didn’t use the word “lifted.” Rather, they “narrowed” the range to $130-145 billion from their prior outlook, which was $125-145 billion.

Capex in Q2 was $31.08 billion. That actually looked to be below consensus, but I doubt it’ll matter.

I won’t prejudge the market reaction for Meta either, but… well, I didn’t see anything in the release with the potential to spark a rally, I’ll just say that.


 

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2 thoughts on “Microsoft Beats With Azure, Meta Underwhelms With Sales Guide

  1. As I have followed the big 7 stocks I feel like they are divided by leadership style. Those like Meta that are run by a single individual seem to make more serious mistakes than those with a more experienced staff of diverse backgrounds that can bring a wider range of ideas to bear on a company’s future. I’m not sure Meta will keep up with the development of AI and its cousins among the other hyper-scalers since the the focus of that dog’s tail lies primarily in the narrow mind of one individual.

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