Donald Trump’s been on the phone with Kevin Warsh “repeatedly” since May. Imagine that.
Before I lampoon this farce for the umpteenth time since last week’s FOMC meeting, let me reiterate that I’m the very last person to pretend the Fed’s a monastic order of politically ascetic technocrats whose decision-making calculus is completely impartial. That’s an absurdist characterization.
And although it may be rare for presidents to pick up the phone and call “their” Fed chairs in the absence of a financial crisis, that has more to do with the fact that presidents are busy than it does with respect for Fed independence. On most days, US monetary policy is very, very far down the list in terms of a president’s priorities.
Even so, it’s likely that presidents talk to Fed chairs more often than any given White House lets on. So when the mainstream financial media says, as The Wall Street Journal did this week in an amusing piece on Trump’s discussions with Warsh, that the administration’s “depart[ing] from recent precedent,” such statements need an asterisk. The related footnote would say the Fed’s latitude to make policy without reference (or deference) to domestic political concerns varies with the circumstances.
All of that said, there’s no reason to doubt, and every reason to believe, that the frequency and nature of Trump’s communications with Warsh is out of the ordinary. Everything to do with Trump’s out of the ordinary, after all, and he’s quite proud of that.
In the linked piece from the Journal, Brian Schwartz, Philip Wegmann and Nick Timiraos said Trump “calls Warsh in bursts,” where that means “several times in a stretch of days,” before going silent for “longer periods.” I believe that, and not just because we all know how keen Trump is to micromanage US monetary policy. I also believe it because it sounds exactly like Trump:
“The person you are trying to reach is unavailable to take your call. Please leave your message after the tone. Beeeeeeeeeeep.
“Kevin, it’s me again. I just wanted to see if you’ve — you know — thought about that, um, that thing. The thing we talked about last night. So, um, call me back when you get this.”
It’s also completely consistent with Trump’s disdain for decorum that he’d call Warsh on the phone rather than schedule a meeting that’d show up on the Fed’s chair’s public schedule.
As Schwartz and co. went on to say, “Trump regularly bypasses formal communication channels” in favor of “his personal cellphone” when he talks to other heads of state, business luminaries and lawmakers. Suffice to say the mock message I conjured above’s probably a lot closer to a real message sitting in Warsh’s iPhone voicemail box than it should be.
One of the Journal‘s sources “insisted” Trump hasn’t talked to Warsh about monetary policy. I don’t believe that for a second. While I don’t doubt that Trump’s calls to Warsh descend into disjointed rambling, I find it implausible that interest rates never come up.
Not wanting to be left out, Bloomberg essentially rewrote the Journal‘s story on Thursday using their own sources, which I can only assume have some overlap with Dow Jones’s contacts.
In their coverage, Josh Wingrove and Enda Curran appeared to indicate Trump and Warsh spoke at least three times since May and that during a typical call, Trump will ask Warsh for his “forecasts and opinions” while steering clear of pressing him on monetary policy. Reputable media outlets typically try to get at least three sources. One of Bloomberg’s described Trump’s calls to Warsh as “irregular,” another “infrequent.”
Of course, Warsh hasn’t even been in the role for three months, so even if they’ve “only” spoken three times, that’s more than once a month, which is… well, it’s a lot isn’t it? I mean, it suggests Trump and Warsh have spoken more times than the Fed’s held policy meetings since Warsh was confirmed.
“The full nature of their conversations remains hazy,” Bloomberg went on to say, noting that while regaling lawmakers last month, Warsh said he’s not “uncomfortable receiving a call from the president of the United States.”
Meanwhile, The Financial Times suggested Warsh has privately acknowledged things didn’t go especially well last week when the Treasury curve bear steepened following his press conference. Still, the FT‘s sources said, Warsh “intends to stick to his stripped-back communications style.”
So, when Trump wants clarity from Warsh, all he has to do is pick up the phone. The public, meanwhile, is in the dark. Par for Bedminster.


Trump is probably calling Kevin to swap putting tips, no mention of policy rates I’m sure…
I’m wondering about their weekly friendship calls, if Trump notified Warsh about the formal notice and warning letter to Ms Cook?