There’s plenty of data on offer this week across the world’s largest economy. And even more Fed speak.

I’m not sure how tradable the macro updates will ultimately prove. The BEA’s personal income and spending release is the headliner, given that it affords market participants and policymakers a chance to retroactively justify last week’s upsized rate cut by way of PCE price figures which are assumed benign.

When the Fed’s self-imposed quiet period lifted last week, Chris Waller told CNBC’s Steve Liesman that the read-through of recent data for the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge is what ultimately pushed him “over the edge to say, ‘Look, I think 50 is the right thing to do.” That gauge, excluding food and energy, probably rose 0.2% for a third month in August, according to economists.

On a YoY basis, the increase was likely 2.7% which, not to split hairs, isn’t 2%. The headline gauge the Fed prefers will probably show a smaller advance both on a month-to-month and 12-month basis.

To be fair, headline PCE prices are pretty much back to target. Assuming an in-line read for August, the headline gauge will be at 2.3%, not materially different from “price stability,” as arbitrarily defined by economists.

I think I’ve been more than clear that I wholeheartedly agreed with the rationale behind the September half-point cut when that rationale is couched in terms that suggest the Fed’s keen to stay ahead of the curve this time and preempt any extension of nascent labor market weakness. Relatedly, it’s self evident that the risks around the dual mandate are now nearly balanced. But as Michelle Bowman, dissenter, was keen to emphasize: The Fed does still need to be cautious when it comes to the perception that it’s declaring victory too early on the inflation front.

As the figure above shows, the MoM core PCE readings in the decade leading up to the pandemic averaged 0.13%. The Fed would argue that’s not an experience they want to emulate because post-Lehman (and pre-COVID) the fight was to guard against deflation. I concur, but I suspect — call it a crazy hunch — that some folks on Main Street would tell you they prefer 0.1% monthly core inflation increases versus 0.2%, the latter being twice as fast and their budgets being constrained.

Anyway, the September 27 BEA update will also give officials and market participants a more holistic look at spending in August. Consensus is looking for a 0.3% gain on the personal consumption headline.

I’d argue the second-most important macro updates in the new week are the preliminary PMI releases for September from S&P Global, due Monday. Remember: S&P Global’s PMIs for the US are tradable as “flash” prints, which is to say yes, they’ll eventually be rendered irrelevant (for traders) by the ISM releases, but in the interim they’re incremental to the narrative. Consensus is looking for 48.6 from the manufacturing gauge and 55.3 on the services side.

The figure above gives you some context for where we are. And where we’ve been. This remains a tale of two economies, but one of those economies is immense and the other’s going extinct. 55-ish service PMI prints aren’t consistent with recession for a consumption-driven economy. That calls into question the relative wisdom of rate cuts in succession but… well, what can you do?

A bevy of housing market updates are on deck as well, starting with Case-Shiller and FHFA prices covering July on Tuesday. Spoiler alert: If $420,000 is a lot of money to you, prices were high in July. New home sales are due Wednesday. Consensus is looking for a 6% drop. That’s government data and it’s volatile as hell, but the update will be eyed closely given the sharp decline in mortgage rates. On Thursday, the NAR will give us an update on pending home sales, which fell to a record low in July. They’re expected to rebound in August, albeit not by much.

Also on the docket: Conference Board confidence for September, the third and final Q2 GDP estimate, jobless claims (recall that initial claims hit a four-month low during September NFP survey week) and a veritable chorus of Fed speakers including Barr, Bostic, Bowman (three times), Collins (twice), Cook, Goolsbee, Kashkari (twice), Kugler (three times), Williams and some guy called “Jerome,” who’ll deliver a speech at 9:20 on Thursday.