I try to be generous, really I do. But in the face of what I might loosely describe as acute and pervasive cognitive estrangement in America, it’s difficult on some days.
Exactly no one would argue that the US government’s a model of efficiency, and everyone understands that Leviathan’s by now a beast so bloated he can barely move. But, and without mincing words, the notion that the job of overhauling the civil service and right-sizing the bureaucracy should fall, and can be entrusted, to one man and a sidekick, would be ludicrous even if that man weren’t Elon Musk and his sidekick wasn’t Vivek Ramaswamy.
I’m skeptical that Donald Trump’s “Department of Government Efficiency” idea is going anywhere, and as such, I don’t tend to fret too much about it. At the same time, we’d be naive and remiss not to at least consider the possibility that DOGE (which, let’s not forget, is named after the meme coin Musk pumped) is just Project 2025’s civil service purge disguised as a Shiba Inu.
Musk is a lot of things. He’s an eccentric genius, for example. And a visionary. One thing he’s not is a gifted CEO. He only knows one way to cut costs: Firing people, and while it’s undoubtedly true that the US government could benefit from a carefully considered, compassionately executed downsizing, mass layoffs are a terrifyingly bad idea considering the extent to which, cumbersome or not, the federal government facilitates day-to-day life in ways most Americans take for granted and therefore don’t appreciate.
In simple terms: I don’t want Musk deciding how many people work at the Post Office branch right across the street from my downtown loft, let alone whether that branch is superfluous such that it should be shuttered entirely. Whether you realize it or not, you don’t want that either.
And how could anyone not realize that, by the way? Step back and think about what it is we’re actually proposing here: Letting Musk have the second-to-final say in how to staff the US government. In what universe are we comfortable giving Musk something like unilateral authority to fire our spouses, family members and friends from their jobs in the federal government?
That’s self-evidently crazy in a way that shouldn’t need explaining, but apparently it does. Because at least some ostensibly serious people are willing to entertain it. Here’s what Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson had to say Monday about DOGE:
The creation of a new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) potentially presents an official and specific mandate for something the US hasn’t been able to do in a sustainable way in some time—consolidate its deficits. It also calls into question the fiscal dominance that has been firmly in place since 2020. In short, we are potentially going through another sea change in policy outcomes that could have both short and longer term implications for markets. The introduction of these new variables post election also furthers the narrative of wider potential outcomes that we discussed in our Mid-Year Outlook; this should lead to plentiful trading opportunities, which we will endeavor to uncover over the next year. While we don’t have details yet on what DOGE intends to do, we have heard quite a bit from its co-leaders, Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. While many are skeptical they will be able to actually cut spending via efficiency efforts, we think it makes sense to take a more open-minded approach given the individuals involved and the fact that this seems to be a focal point for Trump in his second term. It also couldn’t come at a more critical time with debt/GDP north of 120% and total debt growing by some $1T every 100 days. It’s fair to say we have a debt sustainability issue in this respect, and this matter is not new, nor does it fall at the feet of one party or one administration. That said, if we don’t choose to address it pro-actively, it could very much limit the country’s growth, and hence equities. This is why we think the success and/or failure of this political effort is likely to be very important to the outlook for markets over the next year and beyond.
I like Wilson, God knows I do, but that’s completely ridiculous. “The individuals involved” — as he put it, referring to Musk and Ramaswamy — are highly capable in certain contexts, and are each smarter than I’ll ever be in any context. But they’re also clownish in a way I’ll never be, and in a way you’ll never be, and Wilson will never be either.
If you have a great idea for a world-changing start-up, Musk might well be the guy to talk to, and if you want to get to Mars, he’s the only guy to talk to. If you need an intelligent-sounding rationalization for the new American right — which is to say an exposition of the merits and a pitch that doesn’t sound like it walked off a divider wall in a truck stop bathroom stall — Ramaswamy’s a good guy to call. But putting them in charge of a de facto civil service purge? That’s nuts. And dangerous. It’s another “What are we even talking about?” moment. (How many of those have we had in the past 10 or so days?)
Over the weekend, Ramaswamy showed up on Fox to talk shop with former CNBC “money honey”-turned MAGA crusader Maria Bartiromo. Ramaswamy said he and Musk “expect certain agencies to be deleted outright.”
As to whether that might run up against legal challenges, he didn’t seem overly concerned. “I think people will be surprised [at] how quickly we’re able to move given the legal backdrop the Supreme Court has given us,” he said.
‘..in ANY context’?
I think you’d be hard pressed to find any subscriber agreeing with you on that, H. Or did I misunderstand the extent of the intellectual humility?
Agreed. The normalization of Maga by the press confounds me. Mike Wilson is confounding as well. Though, maybe it’s not Mike but the bank he works for. Why risk the ire of our new Lord and dictator?
Speaking of DOGE, it appears DJT (the company) is in talks to buy a crypto trading firm. I’m sure this is another selfless act on the part of our president to spread wealth to the common man. Sign up now for free DJT coins that can be used to pay your federal taxes!
Also, I’m starting to see why Trump nominated Rubio as Secretary of State. I’m willing to bet his good friend, Desantis, will do the right thing and nominate Trump’s daughter-in-law to the senate.
Pervasive cognitive estrangement indeed…
I think DeSantis is limited to 2 terms as Florida Governor, and he is in his second term. So, appointing himself as Senator seems likely.
I too am tired of all the stuff flooding the zone. I can’t help but recall what Steve Bannon said about flooding the airwaves with ‘sh**’
I have started to tune out. Really mostly started about a week ago. Just to give my mind a rest. Not that I think any of these moves are in our best interest but after the pile is fully formed it can be easier to see how to move said pile out of the way.
I can’t imagine the people who really matter think any different. They are overwhelmed, but are they resting up for the real battle to come?
This is by design. Give yourself the time to recover but don’t tune out completely. Choose news sources that are reliable and make sure you support them financially (so they continue existing). But make sure you control when that information flows to you, otherwise the fatigue will break you.
Good advice.
“acute and pervasive cognitive estrangement in America“ brilliantly capturing the collective cognitive decline in the US.
While the DOGE is clownish and ill conceived on its face, logic tends to lose out to egomaniacal sociopaths with nihilistic fascism as an accelerant.
What I find interesting is how sanguine Wall St seems to be. It’s as though they are clueless about the economic destruction that will come hard and fast from these cuts (and other Trump policies). How do they think we reached insane equity levels over the past 4 years? This whole bubble is about the get intentionally burst. Why go for a soft landing when you can intentionally burst the largest everything bubble in human history. As Forest Gump said: nihilistic fascism is as nihilistic fascism does. In other words, it’s the expected outcome.
Look at what is exploding right now meme stocks, crypto, penny stocks, etc. As I write this Volato (a fractional ownership private aircraft firm) is up 175%, Painreform (an oil injection into surgical wound manufacturer) is up 212%, noco noco (blockchain hedge) is up 128%. These moves are clearly playing on the young bro investor culture and it’s about to transfer a crap load of wealth away from them.
Having business leaders reform government is doomed to failure at best, at worse loss of needed services to the public. The business of government is to serve the people, not generate a profit. The motives behind running a business are not applicable to running a government. Don’t blame the deficit on the government employees, blame congress for fiscally irresponsible management of government. And the blame for the fiscal irresponsibility rests on business’s tireless lobbying for tax relief which has not resulted in the promised bonanza of trickle down economics.
The hysterical hypocrisy given Trump’s proven track record of wrecking companies, screwing bondholders, shorting vendors, lying to lenders is breathtaking. Musk’s “success” is completely based on government (taxpayer) largess without which the word Tesla would be a cautionary tale.
No doubt there are areas of government that should be reconsidered. New departments and agencies that were originally formed to address specific issues and then should have been sunsetted have tended to become permanent. The RTC was the rare agency which did sunset when its job was done. There should be consideration given to rationalizing similar programs or activities. These actions have previously been undermined generally due to congressional intervention of the type “you can’t close that base in my state”.
Being able to attract competent people to govt employment is tough because the pay scales have been relatively stagnant compared to equivalent private sector wages. As a result lots of consultants and contractors now make an enviable living supplementing govt staff to actually deliver the services required.
The simplistic response of shut it down fails to consider that those services must still be delivered. Shut down education and who will service student loans, provide congressionally mandated funds to school districts, evaluate grant requests, etc.
I am just stupefied at the callousness of these people. No empathy and even less thought. I believe there is a psychiatric classification that pertains to their behavior.
Personally I alternate between despair and grief.
Good thoughts. I hope others pick up the vein of thought you promote in your writing.
We should be having real conversations with real people, but we are relegated in our modern world to these comment boxes.
I try to talk, but people are exhausted. Prior to the election I was selling some hope. Hope, or in my case expectation, the economy is going to boom due to energy in an energy intensive society become near to zero cost. Heck we have seen recent progress on a hydro-metallurgical process to make cement. Inputs are limestone and electricity.
Having read Vivek’s Wikipedia entry I just shake my head. Another financial engineer who got rich from other people’s money and whose companies had failed products, and never made money. Thank god for ipo’s reliant on future riches. Another Ayn Rand acolyte intent on destroying a society as we know it.
I guess we’ll see. But I fear that all DOGE will end up doing is pushing the responsibility for services currently provided by the Federal Government to the states- who will be forced to raise taxes or to borrow, in order to pay for the cost of such services. Not sure how that helps the middle class.
Mobile IRS app to file taxes. Now that’s revolutionary, sigh.
While I am not going to go out on a limb and be the exactly __one person to argue that the federal government is a model of efficiency, the NYT and confirmed by ChatGPT have pointed out that the number of civilian employees of the federal government has grown by less than 20% since the 1960s, while the population has almost doubled. The leviathan is slimmer than people might think.
As Warren might say, lots of analysts have been “swimming in the nude” for some time, and as the tide turns, are now being exposed for poor judgement, even being naive, on non “quant” matters.
You can tell from the sneering cruelty in Vivek and Elon’s less rehearsed gloating about DOGE that they regard federal government employees as inferior subhuman leeches who should be living in tent cities along with half the people they serve.