Americans bought some houses last month, God bless ’em.
Existing US home sales, which’ve spent the better part of two years mired in a hopeless rut, rose 3.4% last month, the NAR said Thursday.
That was the largest increase since a short-lived recovery in Q1 and the annual rate, at 3.96 million, was the briskest since July.
The figure underscores the extent to which the resale market was — and remains — moribund.
The uptick in October was down to September locks. The existing home sales series tallies closings, so those deals (October’s closings) would’ve by and large been from contracts signed in September, when rates moved down to 19-month lows ahead of the Fed’s first rate cut.
Since then, rates are up 75bps or so, which means the rebound in sales could prove short-lived. That said, NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun was probably right to suggest the worst of the slump’s over, assuming inventories continue to normalize, agonizingly slow though that process is proving to be.
I do wonder about Yun’s out-on-a-limb assurances around the economy. “Additional job gains and continued economic growth appear assured, resulting in growing housing demand,” he said Thursday. With all due respect, nothing’s “assured” other than death. But yes, barring a truly catastrophic recession, Americans will still try as best they can to buy homes. It won’t be easy. Because they’re expensive, those homes.
The median price was flat at $407,200 last month, the NAR release showed, but on a YoY basis, price gains accelerated to the quickest since June. It was the 16th consecutive 12-month advance.
Yun stated the obvious: “For most first-time homebuyers, mortgage financing is critically important.” Yes, “most” late-twentysomethings come up a little short if the question is, “Do you have $407,200 in cash?”
On the bright side for buyers, mortgage rates will probably “stabilize” even as they “remain elevated,” Yun said. On the bright side for homeowners, “ongoing price gains mean increasing wealth.”




I understand the desire to own a home, however, at least in LA- the “rent vs. buy” analysis indicates that buying, instead of renting, is about twice as costly for the exact same house. Add in repairs/ replacements and consider the “lost income” on a down payment, and home ownership is more than twice as costly.
The “trick”, if one rents instead of buys, however, is to be disciplined enough to save the difference and not spend it.