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Featured

‘Vol Cubed’ Explodes, Eclipsing ‘Even Volmageddon’

November 10, 2026November 10, 2026
  • Trial Balloon

    November 10, 2026November 10, 2026
  • He’s An Importer-Exporter, Okay?

    November 10, 2026
  • The Dark Side Of Liquidity: The Genealogy Of The AI Arms Race

    November 9, 2026

Markets

Buy The Dip? (Honeypot Training)

November 9, 2026November 10, 2026
  • Megaspeed Indeed. (Two Huangs Don’t Make A Right)

    November 9, 2026November 10, 2026
  • Jensen Got Honey-Trapped

    November 8, 2026November 9, 2026
  • Weekly: Melodrama

    November 7, 2026November 9, 2026
  • ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026

economy

What Are Treasurys Telling Us?

November 9, 2026November 10, 2026
  • Inflation Week!

    November 8, 2026November 9, 2026
  • Inflation Fatalism Has Set In

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • Drunken Monkey Darts

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • ‘Tis The Season! For Temporary Fulfillment Jobs

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026

Geopolitics

Rasputin Presiding

November 8, 2026November 9, 2026

Tsunami

November 4, 2026November 5, 2026

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026

Duly Noted

US Jobless Claims Chase History

November 5, 2026November 7, 2026

Tech Got No Love This Earnings Season

November 3, 2026November 8, 2026

Eyebrows Raised, Singed By Scorching Wholesale Inflation Report

May 13, 2026May 14, 2026

“Can you hear me now?” asked the war. Wholesale inflation ran far faster than expected

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7 Comments on Eyebrows Raised, Singed By Scorching Wholesale Inflation Report

Iran War Is $29 Billion Quagmire As Trump Heads To China

May 13, 2026May 14, 2026

“Mounting supply losses from the Strait of Hormuz are depleting global oil inventories at a

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13 Comments on Iran War Is $29 Billion Quagmire As Trump Heads To China

Don’t Tread On My Buybacks

May 12, 2026May 13, 2026

Anyone tired of the capex boom discussion and the associated debate about the read-across of

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7 Comments on Don’t Tread On My Buybacks

Who Feels Bad For Kevin Warsh?

May 12, 2026May 13, 2026

I’d say I feel sorry for Kevin Warsh, except that I don’t. After all, he

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1 Comment on Who Feels Bad For Kevin Warsh?

Convoluted US Inflation Report Won’t Answer Any Questions

May 12, 2026May 13, 2026

Uh-oh? Core inflation in the US ran faster than expected last month, the BLS said

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1 Comment on Convoluted US Inflation Report Won’t Answer Any Questions

Is The UK Ungovernable?

May 12, 2026May 13, 2026

It’s back to chaos in the UK. Five days on from a very tough round

Read More

10 Comments on Is The UK Ungovernable?

Melt-Up Blueprint

May 11, 2026May 12, 2026

The US-Iran ceasefire’s fighting for its life. “After reading that piece of garbage they sent

Read More

5 Comments on Melt-Up Blueprint

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

I / The void   “All I do is keep on running in my own

Read More

12 Comments on Escape Artists

Home-Buying Season In America Off To Slow Start

May 11, 2026May 12, 2026

Existing home sales in America managed only the smallest of advances in April, the first

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2 Comments on Home-Buying Season In America Off To Slow Start

Proposals, Counterproposals And More Threats

May 11, 2026May 12, 2026

“Reasonable and generous.” That’s Iran’s counter-proposal to Donald Trump’s terms for ending the war. The

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3 Comments on Proposals, Counterproposals And More Threats

‘Matter Of When’: Core CPI, Real Spending On Borrowed Time

May 10, 2026May 12, 2026

It’s inflation week in the US, where the BLS’s headline, all-items price gauge is likely

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7 Comments on ‘Matter Of When’: Core CPI, Real Spending On Borrowed Time

Mission Impossible

May 10, 2026May 11, 2026

A week ago I asked if market participants should take Kevin Warsh at his word

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16 Comments on Mission Impossible

Weekly: Is The Stock Rally ‘Irrational’?

May 9, 2026May 11, 2026

Six weeks, 17% (intraday low-to-high) on the S&P and 11 new records later (“These go

Read More

10 Comments on Weekly: Is The Stock Rally ‘Irrational’?

ChatGPT Sparks Second Bay Area Luxury Boom

May 8, 2026May 8, 2026

AI’s beginning to have a significant effect on tech-sector employment. Tech firms announced more than

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Leave a Comment on ChatGPT Sparks Second Bay Area Luxury Boom

The Madness Of Melt-Ups

May 8, 2026May 11, 2026

US equities hit new records on payrolls Friday, scoring a sixth consecutive weekly gain in

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9 Comments on The Madness Of Melt-Ups

Trump Beats His Own Dubious ‘Vibecession’ Record

May 8, 2026May 10, 2026

A US recession’s nowhere in sight, or at least not according to government and private-sector

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1 Comment on Trump Beats His Own Dubious ‘Vibecession’ Record

US Jobs Report Doubles Up Consensus

May 8, 2026May 10, 2026

Headline US hiring slowed last month from March’s brisk pace, but nevertheless managed to double

Read More

7 Comments on US Jobs Report Doubles Up Consensus

Once Upon A Saturday

May 7, 2026May 9, 2026

Once upon a Saturday morning in 2015, I blinked bleary-eyed at a blank blog post.

Read More

12 Comments on Once Upon A Saturday

Alternative US Jobs Report Lukewarm, Claims Still Rock-Bottom

May 7, 2026

The US economy added around 66,400 jobs in April, according to an alternative measure of

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2 Comments on Alternative US Jobs Report Lukewarm, Claims Still Rock-Bottom

AI’s Taking A Bigger And Bigger Bite Out Of Payrolls

May 7, 2026May 8, 2026

The message from Thursday’s monthly update on US job cuts was unequivocal: AI’s impacting tech-company

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4 Comments on AI’s Taking A Bigger And Bigger Bite Out Of Payrolls

Soaring Semis, Raging Bull

May 7, 2026May 8, 2026

Just a few days ago, on April 27, I called the semi-fueled rally in South

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5 Comments on Soaring Semis, Raging Bull

The Costly Search For Comeuppance

May 6, 2026May 8, 2026

I’ll take it. I suggest you think along the same lines, or at least if

Read More

27 Comments on The Costly Search For Comeuppance

Art Of The Nuclear MOU

May 6, 2026May 7, 2026

How many times did I say, over the past, let’s call it five weeks, that

Read More

13 Comments on Art Of The Nuclear MOU

Unfazed By War, US Private Sector Adds Most Jobs Of ‘Trump 2.0’

May 6, 2026May 7, 2026

Private-sector hiring in the US was the strongest last month since January of 2025, ADP

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4 Comments on Unfazed By War, US Private Sector Adds Most Jobs Of ‘Trump 2.0’

Peace Over ‘Freedom’

May 6, 2026May 7, 2026

Just 50 cents to go. 50 more cents and Donald Trump will beat Joe Biden’s

Read More

6 Comments on Peace Over ‘Freedom’

Chips Ahoy!

May 5, 2026May 6, 2026

It was with more than a little sheepishness that I recently admitted to selling the

Read More

17 Comments on Chips Ahoy!

US Hiring Soars Most In 25 Years. Allegedly.

May 5, 2026May 6, 2026

An otherwise forgettable BLS update on job openings in the US showed a big uptick

Read More

3 Comments on US Hiring Soars Most In 25 Years. Allegedly.

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

  • derek on ‘Vol Cubed’ Explodes, Eclipsing ‘Even Volmageddon’
  • John L on Megaspeed Indeed. (Two Huangs Don’t Make A Right)
  • therealheisenberg on Megaspeed Indeed. (Two Huangs Don’t Make A Right)
  • John L on Megaspeed Indeed. (Two Huangs Don’t Make A Right)

Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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