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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Home-Deal Cancelations Keep Hitting Records

March 26, 2026March 27, 2026

The deals are still falling through. Home deals I mean. When pending home sales fall

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1 Comment on Home-Deal Cancelations Keep Hitting Records

Wrap It Up, Invade Or Both?

March 26, 2026March 27, 2026

Donald Trump’s ready to wrap it up. The war, I mean. That doesn’t necessarily preclude

Read More

8 Comments on Wrap It Up, Invade Or Both?

Israel Kills IRGC Navy Boss Tangsiri

March 26, 2026March 27, 2026

Alireza Tangsiri’s dead, if that means anything to you. Another IRGC lifer who traces his

Read More

3 Comments on Israel Kills IRGC Navy Boss Tangsiri

VaR Is Hell

March 25, 2026March 26, 2026

If I weren’t so committed to editorial integrity, I could’ve penned a terrifying headline for

Read More

2 Comments on VaR Is Hell

Buy Now Or Forever Hold Your Lease

March 25, 2026March 26, 2026

If you don’t own property in America by now, chances are you can’t afford to.

Read More

3 Comments on Buy Now Or Forever Hold Your Lease

War Dashes Spring Home Hopes For American Renters

March 25, 2026March 26, 2026

The war with Iran couldn’t have come at a worse time for a US housing

Read More

3 Comments on War Dashes Spring Home Hopes For American Renters

Donald Trump Has An Iran Peace Plan

March 25, 2026March 26, 2026

Don’t worry, Donald Trump has a plan. At some point early this week, likely on

Read More

14 Comments on Donald Trump Has An Iran Peace Plan

Trump Urged By Saudis To Finish Job, Destroy Iran Regime

March 24, 2026March 25, 2026

War: What is it good for? Before you shout “Absolutely nothing!” maybe talk to Mohammed

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24 Comments on Trump Urged By Saudis To Finish Job, Destroy Iran Regime

Private Credit: Who’s Scared?

March 24, 2026March 25, 2026

The private credit apocalypse is back in the news. I don’t know that it ever

Read More

8 Comments on Private Credit: Who’s Scared?

The War’s Not Over

March 24, 2026March 25, 2026

Godspeed, Jared. We need to move your father-in-law’s “strong,” “constructive” peace talks along. Iran and

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12 Comments on The War’s Not Over

Who You Gonna Believe?

March 23, 2026March 25, 2026

Who you gonna believe: Donald Trump or Bagher Ghalibaf? If it’s between those two, and

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10 Comments on Who You Gonna Believe?

The Regimes Are Dead. Long Live The Regimes.

March 23, 2026March 24, 2026

“Is this the ‘TACO’ trade Wall Street has been waiting for?” CNBC wondered on Monday

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20 Comments on The Regimes Are Dead. Long Live The Regimes.

Trump Teases ‘Total Resolution’ To War After Ghalibaf Threatens Treasurys

March 23, 2026March 24, 2026

Told you so. I told you he was gonna call it done, or at least

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11 Comments on Trump Teases ‘Total Resolution’ To War After Ghalibaf Threatens Treasurys

Where’s The Stock, Pump Price Pain Threshold?

March 22, 2026March 24, 2026

What’s the equity market pain threshold for the Trump administration? Not SPX 6500, apparently, and

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9 Comments on Where’s The Stock, Pump Price Pain Threshold?

Holy Warmongers

March 22, 2026March 23, 2026

Donald Trump’s either “winding down” major combat operations in Iran or on the verge of

Read More

11 Comments on Holy Warmongers

Operation ‘Rage Flip’

March 21, 2026March 23, 2026

It really is difficult to overstate the case when it comes to describing the dramatic

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3 Comments on Operation ‘Rage Flip’

Weekly: Hawks, Hawks Everywhere

March 20, 2026March 23, 2026

It was rough out there for investors this week. Again. It’s not a coincidence that

Read More

11 Comments on Weekly: Hawks, Hawks Everywhere

‘Just An Ongoing, Bleeding Risk-Management Flow’

March 20, 2026March 22, 2026

“Are we really tightening policy into a global energy supply shock with an already fragile

Read More

16 Comments on ‘Just An Ongoing, Bleeding Risk-Management Flow’

How Long Before Trump Calls Iran Done?

March 20, 2026March 22, 2026

Does anybody know how to go about cleanly extricating oneself from a spiraling conflict in

Read More

26 Comments on How Long Before Trump Calls Iran Done?

South Pars And The Mystery Of Iran’s Missing Military Coup

March 19, 2026March 21, 2026

International media outlets were awash Thursday in headlines proclaiming a “global energy crisis” as oil

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24 Comments on South Pars And The Mystery Of Iran’s Missing Military Coup

US New Home Sales Collapse

March 19, 2026March 20, 2026

Don’t look now, but new home sales in the US just posted their largest monthly

Read More

2 Comments on US New Home Sales Collapse

UK Front-End Ablaze As BoE Turns Hawkish

March 19, 2026March 20, 2026

The Bank of England might’ve cut rates today. Then came the war. At the last

Read More

2 Comments on UK Front-End Ablaze As BoE Turns Hawkish

ECB Warns Of ‘Material Impact’ From Iran War

March 19, 2026March 20, 2026

Hot on the heels of hawkish BoE communications which destabilized the UK front-end, stoking still more

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Leave a Comment on ECB Warns Of ‘Material Impact’ From Iran War

‘Standard Learning’

March 18, 2026March 19, 2026

There were two overarching takeaways from Jerome Powell’s press conference on Wednesday. The first was

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4 Comments on ‘Standard Learning’

Fed On Hold, Retains 2026 Rate Projection Amid War Angst

March 18, 2026March 19, 2026

As expected, the Fed kept rates on hold Wednesday following what I imagine was a

Read More

Leave a Comment on Fed On Hold, Retains 2026 Rate Projection Amid War Angst

War Imperils US Housing As Buying Season Begins

March 18, 2026March 18, 2026

Scott Bessent tried to warn him. Or at least I assume (and hope) Scott Bessent

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4 Comments on War Imperils US Housing As Buying Season Begins

South Pars Hit, Iran Intel Chief Killed

March 18, 2026March 19, 2026

“Is that him?” “Yep.” “You sure?” “Yep.” “Cook him!” Esmaeil Khatib somehow survived the devastating

Read More

3 Comments on South Pars Hit, Iran Intel Chief Killed

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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