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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Wholesale Inflation Rose Sharply Ahead Of Iran War

March 18, 2026March 19, 2026

Look out: Wholesale price growth in the US came in warm for a third consecutive

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1 Comment on Wholesale Inflation Rose Sharply Ahead Of Iran War

Beware The War Melt-Up?

March 17, 2026March 18, 2026

Far be it from me (of all people) to be the optimist in the room

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12 Comments on Beware The War Melt-Up?

Iran War Shatters Bullish Wall Street Consensus

March 17, 2026March 18, 2026

The global growth outlook “tanked” and cash allocations “surged” among professional money managers this month

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4 Comments on Iran War Shatters Bullish Wall Street Consensus

Israel Kills Ali Larijani, ‘Iran’s Delcy’

March 17, 2026March 18, 2026

Ali Larijani’s dead. Israel killed him in an airstrike Tuesday. That means Mojtaba Khamenei better

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13 Comments on Israel Kills Ali Larijani, ‘Iran’s Delcy’

Joe Kent Has Words For Donald Trump

March 17, 2026March 18, 2026

Time was, you could trust Joe Kent. And by “you” I mean Donald Trump. “The

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4 Comments on Joe Kent Has Words For Donald Trump

It Could Be Worse…

March 16, 2026March 17, 2026

With inflation still elevated (and poised to rise, at least on a headline basis and

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5 Comments on It Could Be Worse…

Your Hedges Are Bleeding

March 16, 2026March 17, 2026

Last week, in “Priced For Chaos When Nothing Ever Happens,” I again called readers’ attention

Read More

2 Comments on Your Hedges Are Bleeding

If Iran ‘Fun’ Continues, S&P Could Plunge To 5400

March 16, 2026March 17, 2026

Are we having fun yet? At least one person (two if you count Pete Hegseth)

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14 Comments on If Iran ‘Fun’ Continues, S&P Could Plunge To 5400

Thawing Dragon

March 16, 2026March 17, 2026

It’s an afterthought amid a mideast melee that’s poised to dominate every headline for a

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1 Comment on Thawing Dragon

Something’s Gotta Give This Week

March 15, 2026March 16, 2026

I’m probably on the record enough by now, but just in case: I’m avowedly not

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7 Comments on Something’s Gotta Give This Week

Battle-Weary Fed Confronts Another Supply Shock

March 15, 2026March 16, 2026

For quite a while after Russia invaded Ukraine, Western central banks included an admonishment to

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2 Comments on Battle-Weary Fed Confronts Another Supply Shock

‘No Exit Ramp’: Markets Fear War Spiral After Kharg Strikes

March 15, 2026March 16, 2026

The Strait of Hormuz is “open to everyone.” Everyone, that is, except America, its friends

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10 Comments on ‘No Exit Ramp’: Markets Fear War Spiral After Kharg Strikes

Kharg In The Crosshairs

March 14, 2026March 16, 2026

Donald Trump’s a “decent” guy. That’s according to the man himself who, while detailing the

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19 Comments on Kharg In The Crosshairs

Weekly: War Comes To The US Front-End

March 13, 2026March 15, 2026

The war came home for America this week. Not in the form of any actual

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5 Comments on Weekly: War Comes To The US Front-End

Mideast Wars, High Gas Prices Still Unpopular (Who Knew?)

March 13, 2026March 15, 2026

Consumer sentiment among American households might’ve improved again this month were it not for the

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5 Comments on Mideast Wars, High Gas Prices Still Unpopular (Who Knew?)

Fed’s Favorite Core Inflation Measure Hit Multi-Year High Before War

March 13, 2026March 13, 2026

Core inflation in the US ran the fastest in nearly two years to start 2026,

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3 Comments on Fed’s Favorite Core Inflation Measure Hit Multi-Year High Before War

US Economy Gets Sharp Downgrade In Stagflationary GDP Update

March 13, 2026March 14, 2026

The US economy expanded at just half the initially-reported pace in Q4, the BEA said

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1 Comment on US Economy Gets Sharp Downgrade In Stagflationary GDP Update

Iran Oil Blowback Has World Over A Barrel

March 13, 2026March 15, 2026

Don’t read The New York Times. That was Donald Trump’s advice to Americans as the

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11 Comments on Iran Oil Blowback Has World Over A Barrel

Stocks In War

March 12, 2026March 13, 2026

In light of Mojtaba Khamenei’s avowed determination to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed in

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10 Comments on Stocks In War

Market Derelict On Oil Inflation Risk, Albert Edwards Says

March 12, 2026March 13, 2026

If you ask the sell-side’s most famous bear, the bond market’s insufficiently attentive to inflation

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7 Comments on Market Derelict On Oil Inflation Risk, Albert Edwards Says

‘The Caravan Of Martyrs’

March 12, 2026March 13, 2026

Apples and trees. The former don’t generally land too far afield of the latter. Mojtaba

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5 Comments on ‘The Caravan Of Martyrs’

The Tankers Are On Fire

March 12, 2026March 13, 2026

The front pages were ablaze Thursday with video of burning tankers off the coast of

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18 Comments on The Tankers Are On Fire

Two Crazy Charts And A Wildly Bullish Backtest

March 11, 2026March 12, 2026

Wanna see something crazy?! When it’s me asking, you can safely answer in the emphatic

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5 Comments on Two Crazy Charts And A Wildly Bullish Backtest

Mines And Mischief

March 11, 2026March 12, 2026

The regime in Tehran’s good at three things. Network-building (through proxy cultivation, influence-buying and opportunistic

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15 Comments on Mines And Mischief

Priced For Chaos When Nothing Ever Happens

March 11, 2026March 12, 2026

Earlier this week, in “Where’s The Iran War Stock Crash?,” I highlighted the disparity between,

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Leave a Comment on Priced For Chaos When Nothing Ever Happens

Cool Inflation Report Is Old News In Hot War

March 11, 2026March 12, 2026

Wednesday’s US inflation update from the outfit formerly known as the world’s preeminent statistical organization

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Leave a Comment on Cool Inflation Report Is Old News In Hot War

Will Oracle’s Cloud Growth Stanch The Bleeding?

March 10, 2026March 11, 2026

In the normal course of things, I wouldn’t dedicate special coverage to Oracle’s earnings release.

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1 Comment on Will Oracle’s Cloud Growth Stanch The Bleeding?

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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