Records on top of records on top of records.

Many (most?) advanced economy bourses remained closed for Christmas on Friday, but the most widely-tracked measure of global equities endeavored another small daily gain, which would’ve counted as the seventh consecutive.

For the year, MSCI’s benchmark is on track for a near 22% advance, the best since 2019. It posted 15% and 20% gains in 2024 and 2023, respectively.

As the simple figure shows, the only real setback in 2025 was Donald Trump’s botched tariff rollout.

Stocks were a bit of a sideshow this year. The big gains were in the precious metals complex (and the ruble!), which continued to rally on Friday, when gold breached $4,530 and silver $75.

At the highs, gold was up almost 76% for the year and silver 162%.

Obviously, the exaggerated nature of silver’s run-up is in part a function of an ongoing squeeze.

As I put it in October, silver’s always a soap opera. That market exhibits recurring bouts of shenanigans and silliness which precipitate still more of the same.

This week, for example, the sole silver fund available to Chinese investors had to cap new subscriptions in a class of shares popular among speculators after they traded limit-up for three days in a row. At one point, those shares traded at a 60% premium to the Shanghai futures contract, a ridiculous discrepancy the fund manager described (euphemistically) as “unsustainable.”

That term (“unsustainable”) may describe the precious metals rally more generally. The simple figure below gives you an expanded look at cross-asset returns for the year.

With the caveat that you could’ve (and might’ve) said the same thing of gold following last year’s 27% rally, 2025’s going to be a tough act to follow for the precious metals complex.

Remember: Gold and silver bulls will never concede that a given rally’s out of hand because the underlying investment case is defined, to a greater or lesser degree, by reference to “inevitable” fiat currency collapse and different sorts of catastrophes.

Trying to refute that is about like trying to make a case for not holding health insurance, which is to say it’s not about whether you should own some gold (you should), it’s a matter of how much and how much you should pay for it.

Of course, stock bulls aren’t much better than goldbugs when it comes to preemptively flagging runaway optimism and rallies that’ve run too far. Almost everyone expects additional gains for equities in 2026 after windfalls in each of the preceding three years.

Barring a total meltdown between now and New Year’s, the S&P 500 will start 2026 trading on a 22x forward multiple, damn near 100%ile on a 20-year lookback.