This’ll be a slow week for markets.
The data docket in the US isn’t empty, but it may as well be. Trading will be described, aptly, as “holiday-thinned,” nobody who’s anybody will be around past noon on Wednesday, Thursday’s a holiday and there are no scheduled macro releases from the world’s largest economy on Friday.
In other words: This is a de facto two-day week. And next weekend’s four and a half days long. Spare a thought for your favorite isolationist who hasn’t been invited to an intoxicated New Year’s party since he catered the intoxicants and who has to fill up space on a macro-market-focused web portal when everyone involved in macro and markets is blissfully disengaged.
Notably, the “Santa Rally” seasonality didn’t deliver last year, nor the year before. (Not that equities needed it: Stocks scored enormous full-year gains both years.)
The figure above gives you some context: The quarter-century average for S&P returns during the Santa Rally window is 0.67%. Looking back three quarters of a century, it’s double that.
If you like trivia, you’ll be interested to know that the last time the S&P missed out on a Santa Rally for three straight years was — wait for it — never.
I hope I don’t have to say this, but just in case: That doesn’t guarantee a rally over the next five sessions. Trading on factoids is probably a bad idea.
Here’s another bit of trivia: If the S&P manages a decent showing across Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, it has a shot at scoring a third straight 20% gain.
As the chart reminds you, the last time the benchmark managed a 20% three-peat was in the lead-up to the dot-com crash.
Among the sparse US data on offer this week: Pending home sales, the national home price gauges and weekly updates on private sector hiring and jobless claims.



