The Nord Stream sabotage and the assassination of Daria Dugina (in a car bomb likely meant for her father) taught me not to put anything past Ukraine’s military-intelligence service.
That’s not necessarily to cast aspersions. All’s famously fair in love and war. And the latter’s hell. (I’m told the former can be nearly as hellish, although having never been in love, I’m unqualified to speak on the matter.)
So, if Ukraine did try to blow up Vladimir Putin’s getaway in Novgorod, I wouldn’t be surprised. They flew drones at the Kremlin itself in 2023, after all, and they’ve targeted all manner of assets inside Russia over the course of the war.
But it seems pretty convenient for Moscow that Ukraine handed Putin an excuse to turn his back on the peace process just as Volodymyr Zelensky met with Donald Trump in a bid to strip the Kremlin of plausible deniability when it comes to stalling.
On Monday, the deadpan Sergei Lavrov claimed Ukraine launched dozens of drones at Putin’s rural residence. “All the UAVs were destroyed by air defense systems and no casualties or damage were reported,” Lavrov said, in a statement. In other words: No proof of the attack is forthcoming.
Lavrov went on to warn that Russia intends to retaliate and chided Kyiv for taking “reckless actions” during “intensive talks to settle the conflict.” (As if Russia didn’t bomb Kyiv the night before Zelensky arrived in Mar-a-Lago.)
He added that in light of what Moscow called “a policy of state terrorism” on the Ukrainian side, Russia will “review its negotiating position.” Shortly thereafter, Putin said the same in a call with Trump, the second between the two men in 48 hours.
For his part, Zelensky says the Russians are flat-out lying. Putin, he wrote on social media, is trying “to justify additional attacks against Ukraine, including Kyiv, as well as Russia’s own refusal to take necessary steps to end the war.”
Trump’s penchant for gullibility when it comes to Putin is the stuff of legend, so it’s no surprise he seems to believe Moscow’s story. “It’s one thing to be offensive, it’s another thing to attack his house,” Trump told reporters on Monday, describing himself as “very angry” at Ukraine for the alleged infraction.
Whether the Kremlin’s telling the truth or not, this is precisely what I meant Sunday when I said that one way or another, Putin would find an excuse to disengage.
Although Lavrov went out of his way to indicate Russia’s still committed to dialogue, Moscow’s effectively moving the goal posts by announcing their intention to reconsider Russia’s stance on the peace talks.
Oh, and if you’re interested to know more about the compound Ukraine supposedly targeted, the late Aleksei Navalny published an in-depth report on the residence in 2021 accompanied by an entertaining video summary. It’s called “Secrets of Putin’s Valdai dacha.”
Putin deserves anything Ukraine might throw at him (short of…perhaps…nuclear or biological warfare…though some Russian assassins certainly have used biological agents)! I’d really like to see Europe and the US give Z more help, sufficient at least to turn Ukraine into Putin’s Afghanistan.
Hard to believe the US and Europe don’t have satellite or other data confirming or disproving the claim. But nobody’s going to say anything
Putin always lies, but at least he’s consistent. He’s the most prolific serial killer of the last 20 years. Besides that, the only thing he’s accomplished is pilfering the Russian common wealth. Only an idiot in search of a peace prize would pretend to be negotiating with him. Putin’s had the measure of Trump since at least when Russia hosted Miss Universe, Donald’s favorite peep show. Imagine what might happen to the global economy if old Vlad wasn’t around.
“Trump’s penchant for gullibility when it comes to Putin is the stuff of legend,”…..great sentence ! Had it not been this, it would have been something else. Putin can’t let up, he has spent a fortune they don’t have and squandered many live they used to have, and whenever this war stops, there will be some ‘splaining to do Lucy!
I’d have assumed the Ukrainians wouldn’t try unless this had a good chance of success, nor does this further their objectives in the current context (as you point out). Also, a decent amount of Russian anti air capability is diverted to protect the place, so Putin’s estate is helpful to the Ukrainian side already by not being attacked.
I was in error on Nord Stream but I’d still buy P(Russia did it) = 0.9 here, assuming it resolved to ground truth within a month. I’d almost rank it up there with the Kremlin insisting that Ukraine started this war.
Math is hard after a couple of beers, I meant 90c to use Kalshi nomenclature.
Europe and the Ukraine need to treat Trump as a Russian agent and kick USA out of NATO.