The Kremlin was attacked. Allegedly.
Although it wasn’t possible to say precisely what happened, video appeared to show an object (a drone, presumably) flying over the Kremlin, before exploding.
Russia on Wednesday said the footage depicted an attempt on Vladimir Putin’s life orchestrated by Ukraine. Kyiv said it had “no information” on the “so-called” attacks. Putin wasn’t in the office.
“Last night, the Kyiv regime attempted to carry out a strike on the residence of the President of the Russian Federation with unmanned aerial vehicles,” the Kremlin claimed, calling the incident “a planned terrorist act and an assassination attempt.”
There are four things worth noting:
- Victory Day is coming up. It’s on May 9, and it’s a big deal in Russia. It’s a celebration of the Nazi defeat, and Putin has, of course, characterized his “special military operation” in Ukraine as an effort to “de-Nazify” the country.
- It’d be quite a feat if Ukraine managed to fly drones that close to the Kremlin, particularly considering what one assumes are enhanced security measures in preparation for Victory Day ceremonies, plans for which have been scaled back to account for just this sort of incident (and also because the Kremlin is concerned about the potential for protests).
- The West hasn’t always been able to deter Ukraine from activities with the potential to materially escalate the war. Two especially brazen acts — the assassination of Daria Dugina and the sabotage of the Nord Stream lines — were later linked to Ukraine and “pro-Ukrainian” elements, respectively, by US intelligence. No official findings have been made public in those incidents, which technically remain mysteries.
- The deluge of leaked security documents which dominated mainstream media coverage last month revealed that Ukraine was, in fact, planning attacks on Moscow around the one-year anniversary of the invasion. The US dissuaded Kyiv from proceeding. In January, Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate which directs extra-territorial activity, told the Washington Post that, “There are people who plant explosives. There are drones. Until the territorial integrity of Ukraine is restored, there will be problems inside Russia.”
The first two points suggest Russia staged this. The third and fourth at least leave the door open to the possibility, however remote, that Ukraine actually tried to kill Putin.
I don’t like trafficking in “false flag” narratives, but it’s unavoidable here. Russia is still struggling in Ukraine more than a year into the war, and Putin would surely like an excuse to leverage the Victory Day symbolism. If there’s a reason to doubt Russia would conjure this kind of excuse for an escalation in Ukraine, it’s that the motive is glaringly obvious and, assuming the Kremlin is lying, the method is cartoonish.
In addition, it’s somewhat hard to imagine that Ukraine would chance such an attack which, were it to succeed, would be cause (in the minds of Putin loyalists, anyway) for Russia to deploy a nuclear weapon. Assassinating Putin would alter the course of history, perhaps for the better, but it’s not something one just “does,” so to speak.
If Ukraine really did this, as the Kremlin alleges, Kyiv is jeopardizing its support in the West, unless you want to posit Western participation, a conspiratorial rabbit hole I’m not willing to go down. Or at least not based on a statement from the Kremlin.
Bottom line: Anything’s possible. And I’m not ruling anything out. Nor should you.
Russia said it “reserves the right to respond to an attempted strike on the Kremlin where and when it sees fit.”
While the uncertainty of consequences surely make it imprudent to seriously consider…I can’t help but wish the attack was real, and successful! Recall the failed briefcase bomb attempt on Hitler…how might that have changed history if successful… Such idle speculation is at least a welcome distraction from the barrage of Fed-related punditry!
Find it hard to imagine Kyiv would take such an escalatory step. More likely, in my view, is that the long knives in and around Putin have been unsheathed and this is his circle’s attempt to deflect attention from Putin’s increasingly precarious position as head of the Russian state. Disclaimer: I’ve been pro-Ukraine since day one of Russia’s invasion.
Its way above our paygrades to speculate. Anything is possible here. If it was staged, it shows Russia is becoming increasingly desperate to rally the country. If not, it shows Russian security is way worse than I thought. Not a good look either way. Except if you are a Russian watching Kremlin propaganda in the country- then you will be angry and want to wipe out Ukraine.
Russia’s invasion included assassination squads to kill Zelensky and his wife in Kyiv, but I guess that wasn’t “terrorism”?
Visavi Nord Stream it is still an going investigation. There is now intel on that two Russian submarine carrying vessels were circling the explosion sites a few days before it happened. See e.g. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65461401 (there was a good Swedish documentary published yesterday but not sure how I would link it with apprioriate subtitles and without violating IP)
I don’t know how US intelligence came to the conclusion pro-Ukrainan elements did this, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they have to reverse their findings.
Another option, of course, is that some underground Russian group made a sloppy, failed attempt to murder the Don.
It’s hard to imagine that a legitimate, state-sponsored (so, Ukrainian government sponsored) assassination attempt would be so half-assed.
If we look at this skeptically, assuming Kyiv did initiate this attack, I find it hard to believe they would get a drone that close to the Kremlin only to ineptly self-destruct it above the structure where it will do almost no damage at all. They have demonstrated the capability to actually hit their targets in the past with great accuracy. If anything, Russia has been the one missing (probably on purpose) by miles.
The counter view, Russia tried to create a false flag rallying diversion, would absolutely not want to harm the Kremlin if that was the purported target. So executing a drone self-destruct above the Kremlin (from what I can tell the debris more accurately landed BEHIND the Kremlin) would make sense for them.
I wonder how many Russians just shook their heads and hoped they would do better the next time.
Politico’s national security newsletter weighed in on the matter. Here’s their summary:
Wednesday will undoubtedly be one of those days we all remember in the 14-month war between Russia and Ukraine. Here’s a breakdown of what happened.
Two drones flew above the Kremlin overnight and were seemingly downed in the 2:00 a.m. hour in Moscow. The Russian government immediately claimed that Ukraine tried to kill President VLADIMIR PUTIN, prompting Kyiv to immediately deny the allegations.
“We don’t attack Putin or Moscow,” President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY told the Nordic broadcaster TV2 during a surprise trip to Finland, NATO’s newest member. “We fight on our territory. We’re defending our villages and cities. We don’t have enough weapons for these.” Later, he seemed to suggest Putin staged the whole thing because it can’t boast of any battlefield wins: “Because of that, he has to do some unexpected moves like surprise drone attacks.”
Such a brazen attack wasn’t in Ukraine’s interest, MYKHAILO PODOLYAK, a senior adviser to Zelenskyy, told NatSec Daily. It would only encourage Russia to escalate the war it started and put millions of civilians in even greater danger. “Why would we need this? Where is the logic in that?” he asked.
But Ukraine has launched dramatic operations before, most notably detonating a bomb on the Kerch Strait bridge. And intelligence suggests a pro-Ukrainian group damaged the Nord Stream pipelines last year while the U.S. believes Ukraine orchestrated the killing of DARIA DUGINA, the daughter of a famous Russian nationalist.
So as it stands, it’s a game of Vlad-said/Volodymyr-said.
Four U.S. officials told Alex and JONATHAN LEMIRE that they had no foreknowledge of any drone attack in the heart of Moscow. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN added Wednesday that he’d take any claims coming from the Kremlin with a “large shaker of salt.”
Senior administration officials are working to confirm whether the suspected strike was ordered by Kyiv, conducted by a rogue pro-Ukraine group, or a false flag operation by Russia, two U.S. officials said. The Senate Intelligence Committee got briefed at 2:30 p.m. today about what America knows so far.
Current and former officials, as well as experts, are fairly convinced that Ukraine didn’t attempt assassination. Sending drones to the roof of the Kremlin, when Putin wasn’t even there, is Keystone Cops-type stuff, they say. What some have suggested, though, is that groups loyal to Kyiv might be trying to make the regime think twice about its safety. After all, a few mysterious drones have been found in recent days near Moscow.
Not everyone thinks it’d be bad if it does end up being a Ukrainian government attack. “I hope it is fact” that Ukraine was behind an attempted strike on the Kremlin, said retired Gen. Philip Breedlove, formerly the NATO supreme allied commander. “Russia enjoys sanctuary, we essentially enforce it by forbidding Ukraine from using our weapons in striking Russia…I want the Russian Federation to have to expend energy and forces in their defense of their capital.”