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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Canaries And Eye Candy From Inside The AI Bubble

March 10, 2026March 11, 2026

How crucial are AI investment and AI-enabled cloud services to overall corporate profit growth in

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2 Comments on Canaries And Eye Candy From Inside The AI Bubble

In US Housing, A Faint Pulse. But That’s It.

March 10, 2026March 11, 2026

Well whaddya know, the resale US housing market evidenced a pulse in Tuesday’s update on

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Peace Through Fire And Fury

March 10, 2026March 11, 2026

“Have you said ‘thank you’ once?” to quote America’s humble, Appalachia-raised, blue-collar vice president, who

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3 Comments on Peace Through Fire And Fury

Iran War ‘Very Complete.’ ‘Pretty Much’

March 9, 2026March 10, 2026

Blink and you missed it. Hope you bought the dip. “I think the war is

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20 Comments on Iran War ‘Very Complete.’ ‘Pretty Much’

Remember AI?

March 9, 2026March 10, 2026

Remember AI and all the attendant debates and dramas? There was the capex question and

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4 Comments on Remember AI?

Where’s The Iran War Stock Crash?

March 9, 2026March 10, 2026

“Stocks should be down more.” That’s something you might’ve heard in this week’s earliest US

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3 Comments on Where’s The Iran War Stock Crash?

‘Only Fools’

March 9, 2026March 10, 2026

When things get chaotic — when down is up, white is black and day is

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6 Comments on ‘Only Fools’

With Mojtaba Khamenei, The Revolution Becomes What It Overthrew

March 8, 2026March 9, 2026

The Revolution overthrew a hereditary monarchy. 47 years later, it became one. Early Monday, Iran’s

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11 Comments on With Mojtaba Khamenei, The Revolution Becomes What It Overthrew

The Sun Grew Black As Sackcloth, The Moon Became Like Blood

March 8, 2026March 9, 2026

Israel and, at least by association, the US, are now targeting Iran’s civilian infrastructure. Dark

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19 Comments on The Sun Grew Black As Sackcloth, The Moon Became Like Blood

Traders Get Inflation Double-Header In Fog Of War

March 8, 2026March 10, 2026

It’s inflation week in the US. If you ask me, risks around updates on the

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2 Comments on Traders Get Inflation Double-Header In Fog Of War

Weekly: Déjà Vu

March 7, 2026March 15, 2026

2022 called. It wants its geostrategic macro zeitgeist back. If you felt the discomfiting twinge

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2 Comments on Weekly: Déjà Vu

This Could Get Ugly…

March 6, 2026March 8, 2026

Earlier this week, while editorializing around Donald Trump’s ad hoc announcement that the US government’s

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31 Comments on This Could Get Ugly…

42

March 6, 2026March 6, 2026

Clio   Time was, I didn’t need much to be happy. And that was good

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8 Comments on 42

US Spending Impulse Loses Momentum

March 6, 2026

Although a bit of an afterthought on a day when oil shocks and job losses

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Terrible Jobs Report Piles More Pressure On White House

March 6, 2026March 8, 2026

Somebody’s fired, and I don’t just mean the 92,000 people who fell off a payroll

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2 Comments on Terrible Jobs Report Piles More Pressure On White House

Oil Soars Most Since Ukraine Invasion As Iran War Spirals

March 6, 2026March 8, 2026

Donald Trump has a real mess on his hands, not to mention a lot of

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11 Comments on Oil Soars Most Since Ukraine Invasion As Iran War Spirals

A Bloody Mess

March 5, 2026March 7, 2026

“This is not our war. This is a war of choice by the United States.”

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18 Comments on A Bloody Mess

In US Housing, Sixes Now Outnumber Threes

March 5, 2026March 5, 2026

One of the biggest supply-side impediments to a US housing market thaw is the so-called

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1 Comment on In US Housing, Sixes Now Outnumber Threes

A Productivity Renaissance, But At What Cost?

March 5, 2026March 6, 2026

There are two ways you might frame preliminary productivity and cost data released on Thursday

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3 Comments on A Productivity Renaissance, But At What Cost?

US Economy Lost Jobs Last Month, Alternative Facts Say

March 5, 2026March 6, 2026

If you ask Revelio Labs, the US economy lost jobs last month. I’d suggest the

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1 Comment on US Economy Lost Jobs Last Month, Alternative Facts Say

Layoff Pace Slows In America, But War Fog Clouds Outlook

March 5, 2026March 6, 2026

After a staggering spike to start the new year, job cuts across the US economy

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You Sank My Battleship!

March 4, 2026March 5, 2026

Pete Hegseth seems like the kind of guy who keeps a bucket list. If he

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7 Comments on You Sank My Battleship!

Goldilocks Makes Surprise Cameo In US Services Sector

March 4, 2026March 5, 2026

The US services sector’s heating up. That was the message on Wednesday from a barnburner

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White-Collar Job Losses Approach Quarter Million In 10 Months

March 4, 2026March 5, 2026

Humans aren’t completely redundant just yet. Only those with skills who wear ties to work.

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The World’s Biggest Stock Bubble Just Burst

March 4, 2026March 5, 2026

Last week, before the bombs started falling in Iran, I warned on the possibility of

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2 Comments on The World’s Biggest Stock Bubble Just Burst

Dire Strait

March 3, 2026March 4, 2026

On Tuesday, the ubiquitous “people familiar with the matter” told the Western financial press that

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12 Comments on Dire Strait

What We Just Learned About The Dollar

March 3, 2026March 4, 2026

If the question was whether the dollar retains its haven appeal in times of acute

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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